Thinking hard

Never understood why Deal or No Deal is sometimes called the world's dumbest game show. Okay, at one level I can see the point. All the contestants seem to do is pick suitcases at random.

But every time I watch the show, as I just did on GSN, my brain goes into overdrive calculating expected values, wipeout odds, and possible next offers. It's not like trivia where I know it or not. I gotta think my way through this game.

You might say that Deal or No Deal is a game for actuaries by actuaries. I guess I can say it now - my boss at my previous actuarial job was a consultant for the show. He would advise the producers on probabilities and expected payouts when they had ideas for new wrinkles in the gameplay.

Which all makes that silly U.K. investigation of the show as a trivial gambling vehicle seem even sillier. The show is about calculated risk, and calculating the risk is no trivial task.