Watch Out Olympics!

Today was a fairly quiet day...the front passed through this morning and with the low going north of us, winds relaxed substantially this morning.

Classic post-frontal showers and sunbreaks (see latest infrared picture)....and using the radar one is able to time outdoors activities, such as biking, to stay dry. Weather radar can change your life!

An enhanced band of convection should arrive later tonight...just in time to dampen the views of the Leonids. I would head to Vantage if I really wanted to see them...or hope for a short break in the shower clouds.

Tomorrow another low will approach (see forecast graphic), but it will head far north of us...thus, no windstorm in the lowlands...with one MAJOR exception. Strong southeasterlies will again develop over NW Washington from Whidbey Island north to Bellingham and east to the San Juans (see graphic of forecast wind speed). There will be several days of moderate to heavy rain on the Olympics and the mountains of SW Washington (see graphic for 24-h precipitation ending 4 am on Thursday). Flooding will probably return to the Skokomish.

By the way, I have noted a few media outlets and environmental groups have suggested that yesterdays heavy rains are some indication of global warming's effects. That is simply not true. I gave a talk on this subject today at the UW. There is NO evidence that we have been getting heavier rains lately in the Northwest. There is no trend over the last half-century. Global warming due to mankind's ejection of greenhouse gases MAY change the amount and intensity of rain later this century, but you can't blame our pineapple expresses on human intervention. Check the chapter in my NW weather book on local climate change to get more information on this subject.

Been there

Oh yes, fulfilling requests is hard and unrewarding; especially with regard to children's clothing. Here is Scott Adams on his attempt for perfection.

The Christmas TV Companion: A Review

I was recently privileged to receive a copy of the first book released by 1701 Press (to my knowledge), a fun little slice of season appropriate enjoyment called The Christmas TV Companion: a Guide to Cult Classics, Strange Specials & Outrageous Oddities by Joanna Wilson.

Now, I used to think I was quite conversant with the pantheon of holiday-themed specials and movies, but after reading this Joanna Wilson's book, I can see how deficient I've been, especially when it comes to episodic television that was off the beaten path for me, whether it was from an age that was before my time or from a genre that never interested me as a kid.

For instance, aside from that Bing Crosby/David Bowie duet from the 1970's, my knowledge of Christmas episodes from variety TV is remarkably lean, and it seems there were some rather interesting moments in that medium that I should really look into (like a 1963 Judy Garland Show Christmas Special which Wilson describes in loving detail).

The category that she discusses which I am most familiar with is animation, which doesn't dwell on those programs which we have all seen (like a Charlie Brown Christmas, How The Grinch Who Stole Christmas and the Rankin/Bass specials), but shines a spotlight on the oddities of animated television in the modern era, including the various iterations of Charles Dicken's A Christmas Carol, and South Park, which has made Christmas episodes its bread and butter.

And she also devotes a fair amount of the book to both horror inspired and science fiction-based Christmas episodes, which means that Doctor Who, Bender, Buffy and Jack Skellington also get their moments to shine (and after all, A Christmas Carol is a story with ghosts and time travel after all). Wilson also spends some time discussing that holiday train wreck we are all familiar with, (though many of us, myself included, have been spared the agony of watching), and I am of course referring to the infamous The Star Wars Holiday Special. She took a hit I certainly wouldn't want to.

But I think the most interesting chapter of the book is the final one which takes a look at the darker, more cynical visions of the Christmas season, most of which are films. From the film noir The Lady in the Lake, to a few post-apocalyptic Christmas tales to even the Pope of Trash John Waters' Female Trouble, this section is filled with treasures which would be appreciated by those who aren't big on the saccharine and sugar plums (and for those of you who want their Christmas fare a little bloodier, well, there is that previously mentioned horror section).

In addition to these categorized chapters, Wilson has also included a number of Make Your Own Marathons (making a Christmas-themed marathons based not just on themes, but even taking a classic or cult film and trying to find Christmas episodes/movies with all the cast members in them). She finishes the book with her own version of the latter concept by putting together a Marathon based on the cast of The Big Lebowski, and what a list it turns out to be.

As a fellow traveler in the pop cultural world, Joanna Wilson's book is an entertaining trip through some of the less explored areas of our collective holiday experience. Naturally, there are a few things I wish were in it (like the hilarious Alan Cumming/Lenny Henry/Rowan Atkinson vehicle Bernard and The Genie), but for the most part, it hits a lot of movies and television episodes that deserve noting and it serves its purpose as a guidebook for the holiday season, especially with so many options on the cable and satellite dial (not to mention all the videos available online as well) that showcase things that may be off the radar.

Tags: christmas tv companion, make your own marathon, joanna wilson, rowan atkinson, alan cumming, lenny henry, bernard and the genie, a charlie brown christmas, christmas carol, david bowie, big lebowski, film noir, female trouble, john waters, lady in the lake, doctor who, bender, buffy, jack skellington, judy garland, futurama

Winds Surging on the Coast

Very strong winds have hit the coast as the first trough moves its way northward immediately offshore (see weather map for 7 PM). Extremely strong pressure gradient over the offshore waters.

Winds at Hoquiam gusted to 61 knots (70 mph). And the second low is still out there...and starkly beautiful in the latest infrared satellite picture (see below). The new forecast models suggest that the second low will be too far north to give the Puget Sound lowlands a heavy dose of winds...so it appears the next few hours through 1 AM will be the main event.

Heavy rain continues over the Olympic Peninsula, the Willapa Hills, and parts of the Cascades. The latest values from the UW/SPU Rainwatch system are shown below...remember much of the mountains and SW of the Olympics is blocked (why we need a coastal radar!). Really, a coastal radar would have been a big help for this storm, with all the uncertainties in the complex pattern offshore that the models are getting only partially right!

Monday Update

Lots happening. As the satellite image shows a band of moisture, associated with strong southerly and southwesterly winds and warm temperatures is streaming right into us. Complicating the picture have been a progression of low pressure centers that are riding northeastward on the cold side. One low pressure area moved by this morning, producing strong winds on the coast and the NW interior (50-60 mph gusts). Other areas gusted to 30-35 mph. A weak disturbance will move offshore tonight and a strong one will be here tomorrow morning. So expect the winds to increase later today and tomorrow am at least as high as this morning. But this is not a major windstorm like the one in Dec 2006.

Yesterday there were reasons to suspect that the major windstorm suggested by the American models was not in the cards...the UKMET and ECMWF models...as good as and better than ours--had a weaker solution with the low more to the north. The current solution is somewhere in between. The low center is also divided in two...always bad for a big storm.

Heavy precipitation is falling in the Olympics right now and more is expected today....both there, the Willapa Hills and the N. Cascades.

A few graphics of interest:

Here is the predicted sea level pressure at 7 AM tomorrow morning--strong low over Vancouver Island and intense pressure difference on the N. Washington coast and Strait of Georgia. Windy but not exceptional (30-40 mph gusts ) in Seattle, but NW WA and the coast could see 60-70 mph.


Here are the winds tonight as the first weak disturbance moves by. Very strong winds on the coast.
The 24-h rainfall ending 4 AM tomorrow morning--up to 5-10 inches (red colors) over the Olympics, Willapa Hills, and N Cascades. Seattle will get an inch or two before this is over. So rake up those leaves near drains!

High resolution view of precipitation

No Words... should have sent a poet*

* The first and likely last reference to the movie Contact ever. I mean ever.

I told Samuraifrog I was running this, and I am a man of my word.

Tags: james earl jones, contact, sam jackson, samuraifrog

Major Windstorm Possible on Tuesday

Well, the next few days is going to bring a range of extreme weather here...and now the U.S. models are locking on a major windstorm on Tuesday. But there are hold outs...the UKMET office model...which just as skillful on average.. and the European Center Model...which is better that the top US model (a terrible embarrassment for us that should not be!)

Anyway, below is the 48-h sea level pressure and wind speed forecasts--a major event if this becomes true. I suspect we will know tonight whether the US or American models are right. Right now we will have to live with some uncertainty.


And don't forget the rain. We will see huge amounts in the Olympics and northern Cascades, some Olympic slopes getting more than 10 inches. Olympic rivers will flood and there is a strong possibility of flood downstream of the N. Cascades (e.g., Nooksack). And even the lowlands could get deluged with several inches.