Friday, November 18, 2011

Snow Update

It is is looking increasingly unlikely there will be any significant snow over the lowlands tonight north and west of Olympia.  Just a few scattered snow showers, particularly over higher hills and in a dying convergence zone near Everett and extending east.  The latest model runs show far less precipitation and a much more amorphous low center (see graphic below).  Less cold air moving in...in fact, the freezing level has gone up to

Forecast 4 AM sea level pressure and temperatures

2000 ft, which implies a roughly 1000 ft snow-level.  Our wonderful new Langley Hill radar show some strong showers coming to the coast right now...but very little significant precipitation behind it (see below):

8:20 PM radar
The ensemble forecasting system and probcast concur on predicting dry conditions for the Sound and northwards, but some light snow showers to the southeast of the Sound. Perhaps some light snow over the NE slopes of the Olympics and eastern Vancouver Is.  Here is the predicted 24-h snowfall ending 4  PM Saturday.  There could be some light snow in the Centralia/Chehalis area and over SW Washington.   Of course, with it being  cold enough for snow tomorrow morning...so we will need to be attentive for the forecast going wrong...



Mixed clouds and sun tomorrow after the late morning, but quite cool (lower 40s should be it). Heavy rain still on tap for Tuesday.  This is a serious threat for those living near the Olympic Mountains...and will be the first major event observable with the new Langley Hill radar.

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