Mike Colligan of The Hockey Writers joins the podcast for an in-depth discussion of the Pens' offseason. We touch on everything -- the Boston series, Rob Scuderi, Matt D'Agostini, Dan Bylsma, Letang/Kunitz/Dupuis/Adams signings, Fleury, and what moves are still left to make. Plus so much else. We even debate whether Rob Scuderi got burned by Ovechkin four years ago. It's a can't miss GTOG Podcast.
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Showing posts with label Shero. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Shero. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Sunday, July 7, 2013
No Contract for Old Men: Scuderi, Dupuis, Kunitz and Adams
By Artistry
Ray Shero has had a brilliant July, so why does it smell like old people in here? Uh, that's easy. It's because the Penguins just handed a combined $40 million to the guys in the headline -- in deals that will keep them in Pittsburgh until they're 38, 37, 38, and 38, respectively. For now, those four join Brooks Orpik (33 in September), Paul Martin (32), Tomas Vokoun (37), Jussi Jokinen (30), and Tanner Glass (30 in November) as regulars in the 2013-14 lineup. No reason to panic about these numbers, but let's face it, sometimes people go from "old man strong" to "I've fallen, and I can't get up" in the blink of a swollen Deryk Engelland eye. Wait. What's that? Holy shit. I'm being told Deryk Engelland is already 31.
Here's the paradox of this off-season: you can't argue about any of Shero's moves if you look at them in isolation. But if you look at the roster as a whole and don't feel at least mildly uncomfortable, you haven't been paying attention. Why Shero isn't done, after the jump...
As a predicate, Shero is the best in the business at understanding the market and underpaying when virtually every other team is giving the Tyler Bozaks of the world $21,000,000. Or locking up an injury-prone Nathan Horton, who last scored as many as 30 goals 7 years ago by the way, for 7 more years at $37 million. Or buying out their last big mistake. Really, we could do a dissertation on why pretty much every deal this done summer was a bad one, but who has the time? Rob Scuderi is probably the only big-name UFA who didn't get massively overpaid. And yes, he is exactly what the Pens need on the back-end.
Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz? Both just signed for $1 million a year less than they could have gotten on the market. No question. Kunitz was first team all-NHL for God's sake, and he took a million a year less than Ryan Clowe got from New Jersey. Ryan Clowe scored three goals last season. THREE! OK, I know I said I wasn't going to get into this, but look:
- In Ryan Clowe's best season, he had 24 goals. Dupuis and Kunitz just scored 20 and 22, respectively, in 48 GAMES.
- Patrick Elias just signed an over-35-year-old-so-say-goodbye-to-this-money-forever 3 year, $5.5M a year contract after scoring 14 goals.
- Toronto decided to pay Dave Clarkson $5.25M a year every year until he's 36. His career high in points is 46. Over 80 games. Kunitz just scored 52 points in 48 games.
- Detroit just handed Daniel Alfredsson $5.5M, perhaps with the hope he can, what, double his 10-goal output from last season?
Do we see a pattern yet? The Dupuis and Kunitz deals were GREAT signings. Stellar signings. Inarguably.
You have a problem with re-signing Craig Adams for 2 years at $700K per? Fine. But you won't find better value. Adams is arguably the Pens' top penalty killer and was one of maybe two guys (Vokoun being the other) who actually played over his head in the Boston series. And he costs virtually nothing.
See? It's as easy as can be to make the case for all of these moves, but it doesn't change the fact that the Pens already tried and failed to win the Cup with an aging all-star team. It also does nothing to address the glaring holes in the bottom 6, where Matt Cooke, Brenden Morrow, Jarome Iginla, and Tyler Kennedy used to reside. Now we're looking at Jokinen, Glass, Vitale, Dustin Jeffrey, and Adams, with no legitimate depth beyond them. Anybody think Brandon Sutter is going to carry this group? Anyone? This is the first time I can recall that there is no realistic chance for any minor league forward prospect to make the team out of camp. Who's going to do it? You Dom Uher? You Tom Kuehnhackl?
There needs to be a youth infusion, and the bet here is it's still pending. Matt Niskanen is now a must-move, and Engelland, Jokinen, and Glass may have some (limited) trade value as well. With the Pens right up against the cap and with the aforementioned holes, it's worth exploring. And don't discount the possibility that there is some team out there drooling over Marc-Andre Fleury, who with a change of scenery could easily regain his 2008-2009 playoff form. He can fetch assets, even though the Penguins would be selling low, low, low. What the Pens need in return for some or all of these players are cheap, fast forwards, with room to grow. If Fleury goes, they'll need another goalie, too.
Over the next three months, when the free agent frenzy has long subsided, that's when Shero will really need to earn his GM-of-the-year title. This isn't over.
Ray Shero has had a brilliant July, so why does it smell like old people in here? Uh, that's easy. It's because the Penguins just handed a combined $40 million to the guys in the headline -- in deals that will keep them in Pittsburgh until they're 38, 37, 38, and 38, respectively. For now, those four join Brooks Orpik (33 in September), Paul Martin (32), Tomas Vokoun (37), Jussi Jokinen (30), and Tanner Glass (30 in November) as regulars in the 2013-14 lineup. No reason to panic about these numbers, but let's face it, sometimes people go from "old man strong" to "I've fallen, and I can't get up" in the blink of a swollen Deryk Engelland eye. Wait. What's that? Holy shit. I'm being told Deryk Engelland is already 31.
 |
| Craig Adams, Jr. |
As a predicate, Shero is the best in the business at understanding the market and underpaying when virtually every other team is giving the Tyler Bozaks of the world $21,000,000. Or locking up an injury-prone Nathan Horton, who last scored as many as 30 goals 7 years ago by the way, for 7 more years at $37 million. Or buying out their last big mistake. Really, we could do a dissertation on why pretty much every deal this done summer was a bad one, but who has the time? Rob Scuderi is probably the only big-name UFA who didn't get massively overpaid. And yes, he is exactly what the Pens need on the back-end.
 |
| EXACTLY. |
- In Ryan Clowe's best season, he had 24 goals. Dupuis and Kunitz just scored 20 and 22, respectively, in 48 GAMES.
- Patrick Elias just signed an over-35-year-old-so-say-goodbye-to-this-money-forever 3 year, $5.5M a year contract after scoring 14 goals.
- Toronto decided to pay Dave Clarkson $5.25M a year every year until he's 36. His career high in points is 46. Over 80 games. Kunitz just scored 52 points in 48 games.
- Detroit just handed Daniel Alfredsson $5.5M, perhaps with the hope he can, what, double his 10-goal output from last season?
Do we see a pattern yet? The Dupuis and Kunitz deals were GREAT signings. Stellar signings. Inarguably.
 |
| "We're rich, hahahaha, rich! What? You mean Matt Cullen got $3.5M a year?" |
See? It's as easy as can be to make the case for all of these moves, but it doesn't change the fact that the Pens already tried and failed to win the Cup with an aging all-star team. It also does nothing to address the glaring holes in the bottom 6, where Matt Cooke, Brenden Morrow, Jarome Iginla, and Tyler Kennedy used to reside. Now we're looking at Jokinen, Glass, Vitale, Dustin Jeffrey, and Adams, with no legitimate depth beyond them. Anybody think Brandon Sutter is going to carry this group? Anyone? This is the first time I can recall that there is no realistic chance for any minor league forward prospect to make the team out of camp. Who's going to do it? You Dom Uher? You Tom Kuehnhackl?
 |
| Pretty dramatic, Tom Kuehnhackl. |
Over the next three months, when the free agent frenzy has long subsided, that's when Shero will really need to earn his GM-of-the-year title. This isn't over.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 5: Let's Get Nuts
By Artistry (follow me on Twitter)
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
Day 4: Where Brooklyn at?
You can't always get what you want, but if you spend an hour working out an elaborate multi-team trade instead of working on a brief that needs to be filed the next day, you just might find you get what you need. Here's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Let's say you're Ray Shero and you really want Cam Fowler from Anaheim to anchor your defense for the next 10 years because a guy named Cam Fowler from Windsor, Ontario can't not become a great defenseman. You pull up the Ducks' roster and call Bob Murray and when he picks up you say, "Bob, thanks for calling about trading me Cam Fowler for Kris Letang. I really respect your initiative, but I'm looking at your roster and I just don't see a second piece that gets this trade done. Hang on a sec and let me get Craig MacTavish on the phone in Edmonton."
See what this crazy conference call becomes, after the jump...
"Craig, are you there? Bob, are you still on? Ok, great. Craig, you got a ton of guys you need to lock up long term and you need a veteran to show them what it takes to win. What if I told you I'd be willing to part with Chris Kunitz if you gave me the #7 pick in the draft and another piece? Is that something you might be interested in?"
"Ok, I hear what you're saying, you want some blueline help. Don't we all. Listen, I know a team that will pretty much do whatever they feel like doing on any given day, but their GM blocks all calls from the 412 area code. Can you conference in Paul Holmgren?"
"Hey Paul, it's Ray ... no don't hang up! I got Bob and Craig on the phone, too. ... I disagree about Giroux, but let's agree to disagree. ... Anyway, you guys are only a couple million over the cap and I think I've figured out a way for you to get Bobby Ryan to replace Danny Briere even though you don't really need him. ... I'm glad I got your attention."
"Craig needs some defense, and a big part of the reason that everyone hates your team is because you have a guy named Brayden and a guy named Braydon. It's very obnoxious. But if you want to cure this problem, maybe you can send Braydon to Edmonton and then Bob can send Bobby to you guys? You can even put Clarke on his jersey just for fun."
"Whoa, stop screaming Bob, I'm not done. Craig, like I said before, you have tons of high-end talent that you aren't going to be able to sign, and if my team proved anything this year, it's that it's no use having an all-star team. Can you send Sam Gagner to Bob?"
"Good. Now ... Paul! Stop trying to re-sign Kimmo Timonen to an 18-year extension, that's not allowed anymore! And listen to me, because I'm not done with you. All you've given up so far is Braydon Coburn for Bobby Ryan, and we all know it takes more than that. So here's what you're going to do. You're going to send that 11th overall pick you've been dangling to St. Louis -- I'm texting this to Doug right now -- because they have three higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart and I've been trying to trade for him for 4 years."
"Guys, guys, keep it down. I know I've just addressed all of your needs in a fair, reasonable manner, and that this is very unfamiliar to most of you. But now that I've got you all worked into a lather, there's just one more thing I need. Bob, you just got the best player in the trade and a stud young center. I'm going to need your young goalie John Gibson. Yes, the one from Pittsburgh. You know, just in case."
Now that's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Oilers (who need stay-at-home D and some sandpaper and veteran presence up front) get:
Braydon Coburn
Chris Kunitz
Ducks (who need a 2nd line center and an elite D-man to pair with Beauchemin) get:
Sam Gagner
Kris Letang
Flyers (who just want Bobby Ryan so badly they can taste it) get:
Bobby Ryan
Blues (who have two higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart) get:
#11 overall pick from Flyers
Pens (who need youth, size, and replacements for two guys they will likely not extend) get:
Cam Fowler
John Gibson
Chris Stewart
#7 overall pick from Oilers
If the Pens GM can engineer just one simple five-team transaction involving 8 players and 2 draft picks, he can package two guys who will likely walk next summer for a 21-year-old, 20 minute a night defenseman who is locked up for $4 million a year through 2017-18, a legit goalie prospect, a young stud winger with undeniable net front presence, and a top pick he can always package with Matt Niskanen for yet another win-now player. You're welcome, Ray! It's been our pleasure.
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
Day 4: Where Brooklyn at?
You can't always get what you want, but if you spend an hour working out an elaborate multi-team trade instead of working on a brief that needs to be filed the next day, you just might find you get what you need. Here's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Let's say you're Ray Shero and you really want Cam Fowler from Anaheim to anchor your defense for the next 10 years because a guy named Cam Fowler from Windsor, Ontario can't not become a great defenseman. You pull up the Ducks' roster and call Bob Murray and when he picks up you say, "Bob, thanks for calling about trading me Cam Fowler for Kris Letang. I really respect your initiative, but I'm looking at your roster and I just don't see a second piece that gets this trade done. Hang on a sec and let me get Craig MacTavish on the phone in Edmonton."
See what this crazy conference call becomes, after the jump...
"Craig, are you there? Bob, are you still on? Ok, great. Craig, you got a ton of guys you need to lock up long term and you need a veteran to show them what it takes to win. What if I told you I'd be willing to part with Chris Kunitz if you gave me the #7 pick in the draft and another piece? Is that something you might be interested in?"
"Ok, I hear what you're saying, you want some blueline help. Don't we all. Listen, I know a team that will pretty much do whatever they feel like doing on any given day, but their GM blocks all calls from the 412 area code. Can you conference in Paul Holmgren?"
"Hey Paul, it's Ray ... no don't hang up! I got Bob and Craig on the phone, too. ... I disagree about Giroux, but let's agree to disagree. ... Anyway, you guys are only a couple million over the cap and I think I've figured out a way for you to get Bobby Ryan to replace Danny Briere even though you don't really need him. ... I'm glad I got your attention."
"Craig needs some defense, and a big part of the reason that everyone hates your team is because you have a guy named Brayden and a guy named Braydon. It's very obnoxious. But if you want to cure this problem, maybe you can send Braydon to Edmonton and then Bob can send Bobby to you guys? You can even put Clarke on his jersey just for fun."
"Whoa, stop screaming Bob, I'm not done. Craig, like I said before, you have tons of high-end talent that you aren't going to be able to sign, and if my team proved anything this year, it's that it's no use having an all-star team. Can you send Sam Gagner to Bob?"
"Good. Now ... Paul! Stop trying to re-sign Kimmo Timonen to an 18-year extension, that's not allowed anymore! And listen to me, because I'm not done with you. All you've given up so far is Braydon Coburn for Bobby Ryan, and we all know it takes more than that. So here's what you're going to do. You're going to send that 11th overall pick you've been dangling to St. Louis -- I'm texting this to Doug right now -- because they have three higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart and I've been trying to trade for him for 4 years."
"Guys, guys, keep it down. I know I've just addressed all of your needs in a fair, reasonable manner, and that this is very unfamiliar to most of you. But now that I've got you all worked into a lather, there's just one more thing I need. Bob, you just got the best player in the trade and a stud young center. I'm going to need your young goalie John Gibson. Yes, the one from Pittsburgh. You know, just in case."
Now that's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Oilers (who need stay-at-home D and some sandpaper and veteran presence up front) get:
Braydon Coburn
Chris Kunitz
Ducks (who need a 2nd line center and an elite D-man to pair with Beauchemin) get:
Sam Gagner
Kris Letang
Flyers (who just want Bobby Ryan so badly they can taste it) get:
Bobby Ryan
Blues (who have two higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart) get:
#11 overall pick from Flyers
Pens (who need youth, size, and replacements for two guys they will likely not extend) get:
Cam Fowler
John Gibson
Chris Stewart
#7 overall pick from Oilers
If the Pens GM can engineer just one simple five-team transaction involving 8 players and 2 draft picks, he can package two guys who will likely walk next summer for a 21-year-old, 20 minute a night defenseman who is locked up for $4 million a year through 2017-18, a legit goalie prospect, a young stud winger with undeniable net front presence, and a top pick he can always package with Matt Niskanen for yet another win-now player. You're welcome, Ray! It's been our pleasure.
Thursday, June 13, 2013
The Psychology of Ray Shero
By Artistry
An insane person once called the Penguins one of the most arrogant organizations in the league. In recent days, many others, including fans and media, have come to share that sentiment. But the word "arrogant" suggests a sense of entitlement that really applies more to a growing legion of Penguin fans -- those who seem to believe a roster with Sid and Geno means anything less that a Stanley Cup is unacceptable, so get rid of everyone and ask questions later. Ray Shero is not arrogant. Quite the opposite. If you watched his press conference on Wednesday and think otherwise, grab a dictionary. No, the Penguins general manager is not overbearing or insolent or self-important. You may disagree with any number of his decisions: to stand by Dan Bylsma, to commit to fixing Marc-Andre Fleury, or to extend Malkin until he's 35-years-old. All fair game. Criticize away. But if you've been paying attention, you know exactly who Ray Shero is and what he will do.
How Ray Shero developed his steady hand, after the jump...
Ray Shero became an assistant general manager for the barely hatched Ottawa Senators in 1993. They were terrible, and they had no idea what they were doing. During Shero's tenure, the Sens had two GM's with no prior GM experience in Randy Sexton and Pierre Gauthier. Randy Sexton drafted Alexandre Daigle with the no. 1 pick in the 1993 draft. Great pick, Randy Sexton! There were subsequent terrible picks, and terrible hiring decisions. The Sens fired Rick Bowness, who had a terrific head of hair, and hired Dave Allison, and who the hell is Dave Allison. Let me answer that: Dave Allison is the guy who went 2-22-1 as coach of the Ottawa Senators. The team finally turned the corner with the hiring of Jaques Martin in 1996, a good coach who remained at the helm in Ottawa for the next 8 years. So young Ray Shero learned some things there.
In 1998, Shero joined the expansion Nashville Predators. As you'd expect, the Preds were bad. Not historically bad, but for the first couple of years, they were very respectably expansion-level bad. Then they began a steady ascension, to the point where when Shero left for Pittsburgh, they were a 100 point team and a contender. And here's the thing you may not know about the Predators, or maybe you forgot. Over 15 seasons, they have had exactly one general manager and precisely one coach.
So Ray Shero learned some things there, too.
After some early success in Pittsburgh with Michael Therrien -- who was not Shero's hire -- the team soured on Therrien and Shero brought in his guy Dan Bylsma. One thing is very clear from the fallout after the Boston series: no one on the Penguins is souring on Bylsma. You may think that's part of the problem, but Ray Shero thinks otherwise. So when virtually everyone else was calling for the coach's head, Ray Shero extended Bylsma's contract. Ray Shero said he would extend Evgeni Malkin, and he did. Ray Shero will now offer Kris Letang a contract, probably in the neighborhood of 8 years, $48 million, and Letang will in all likelihood turn it down. Ray Shero will then trade Kris Letang.
None of this is happening because Shero is arrogant. It's happening because he's supremely confident. He's the guy who studies the landscape, does his analysis, tells you exactly what he's going to do, and then does it. Without bluster. Without apology. [Although, if you watched his presser, with no small amount of rambling.] He may end up being spectacularly wrong about Bylsma or Fleury or any number of things. And maybe you've already rendered your verdict, decided that you know how this will all play out, and declared Ray Shero guilty of gross mismanagement. That is certainly your prerogative. But then who's the arrogant one?
An insane person once called the Penguins one of the most arrogant organizations in the league. In recent days, many others, including fans and media, have come to share that sentiment. But the word "arrogant" suggests a sense of entitlement that really applies more to a growing legion of Penguin fans -- those who seem to believe a roster with Sid and Geno means anything less that a Stanley Cup is unacceptable, so get rid of everyone and ask questions later. Ray Shero is not arrogant. Quite the opposite. If you watched his press conference on Wednesday and think otherwise, grab a dictionary. No, the Penguins general manager is not overbearing or insolent or self-important. You may disagree with any number of his decisions: to stand by Dan Bylsma, to commit to fixing Marc-Andre Fleury, or to extend Malkin until he's 35-years-old. All fair game. Criticize away. But if you've been paying attention, you know exactly who Ray Shero is and what he will do.
How Ray Shero developed his steady hand, after the jump...
Ray Shero became an assistant general manager for the barely hatched Ottawa Senators in 1993. They were terrible, and they had no idea what they were doing. During Shero's tenure, the Sens had two GM's with no prior GM experience in Randy Sexton and Pierre Gauthier. Randy Sexton drafted Alexandre Daigle with the no. 1 pick in the 1993 draft. Great pick, Randy Sexton! There were subsequent terrible picks, and terrible hiring decisions. The Sens fired Rick Bowness, who had a terrific head of hair, and hired Dave Allison, and who the hell is Dave Allison. Let me answer that: Dave Allison is the guy who went 2-22-1 as coach of the Ottawa Senators. The team finally turned the corner with the hiring of Jaques Martin in 1996, a good coach who remained at the helm in Ottawa for the next 8 years. So young Ray Shero learned some things there.
 |
| How to lose 70 games in 100 days. |
So Ray Shero learned some things there, too.
After some early success in Pittsburgh with Michael Therrien -- who was not Shero's hire -- the team soured on Therrien and Shero brought in his guy Dan Bylsma. One thing is very clear from the fallout after the Boston series: no one on the Penguins is souring on Bylsma. You may think that's part of the problem, but Ray Shero thinks otherwise. So when virtually everyone else was calling for the coach's head, Ray Shero extended Bylsma's contract. Ray Shero said he would extend Evgeni Malkin, and he did. Ray Shero will now offer Kris Letang a contract, probably in the neighborhood of 8 years, $48 million, and Letang will in all likelihood turn it down. Ray Shero will then trade Kris Letang.
None of this is happening because Shero is arrogant. It's happening because he's supremely confident. He's the guy who studies the landscape, does his analysis, tells you exactly what he's going to do, and then does it. Without bluster. Without apology. [Although, if you watched his presser, with no small amount of rambling.] He may end up being spectacularly wrong about Bylsma or Fleury or any number of things. And maybe you've already rendered your verdict, decided that you know how this will all play out, and declared Ray Shero guilty of gross mismanagement. That is certainly your prerogative. But then who's the arrogant one?
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