Mike Colligan of The Hockey Writers joins the podcast for an in-depth discussion of the Pens' offseason. We touch on everything -- the Boston series, Rob Scuderi, Matt D'Agostini, Dan Bylsma, Letang/Kunitz/Dupuis/Adams signings, Fleury, and what moves are still left to make. Plus so much else. We even debate whether Rob Scuderi got burned by Ovechkin four years ago. It's a can't miss GTOG Podcast.
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Showing posts with label letang. Show all posts
Showing posts with label letang. Show all posts
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Monday, July 1, 2013
Pens to pay three players big money: DON'T FREAK OUT
By Artistry
There are legitimate reasons not to like the proposed Kris Letang extension. He may never mature into a consistent defensive force. He's not Sergei Gonchar on the power play. He can't seem to take constructive criticism.
But there's a notion out there that since the Pens are on the verge of eating up about $25 million with the Crosby, Malkin, and Letang deals, they are bound to fill out the roster with 18 Dustin Jeffreys. First of all, what's wrong with that? Second, it's an assertion that doesn't stand up to even the mildest scrutiny.
Even with a new Letang deal, the Penguins have about $8 million to spend under the cap for next season. If they move Matt Niskanen, which is entirely possible if not likely, they'll have more than $10 million. With that money, the only imperative is signing one top 6 winger and one bottom 6 winger (either Pascal Dupuis and Matt Cooke, or two younger, cheaper guys to replace them.) Craig Adams is going to re-sign for his typical $700-800k-ish deal. They've still got a top 6 that includes Sid, Geno, Neal, Kunitz, and the eminently ready Beau Bennett.
What about when the Letang and Malkin extensions kick in, you ask? As of today and assuming Letang's deal gets done, the Pens would be nearly $20 million under the existing cap of $64,300,000 in 2014-15. There is a lot of informed speculation that the cap will be back to at least $70,000,000 by that time. So what, exactly, are people worried about?
If you don't like the pieces you get for your $45 million in 2014-15 (Crosby, Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Beau Bennett, Letang, Paul Martin, and Fleury), that's a different story, and an entirely different debate. But with an infusion of young, cheap, blue chip defenseman like Despres, Maatta, Dumoulin, Pouliot, and Harrington ready or nearly ready to play, there will be cash left over to fill out a roster. And if there isn't? That's why you negotiate limitations to a no-trade clause.
There are legitimate reasons not to like the proposed Kris Letang extension. He may never mature into a consistent defensive force. He's not Sergei Gonchar on the power play. He can't seem to take constructive criticism.
 |
| He did this like 5 minutes before the lockout ended. |
 |
| This is his hair. |
Even with a new Letang deal, the Penguins have about $8 million to spend under the cap for next season. If they move Matt Niskanen, which is entirely possible if not likely, they'll have more than $10 million. With that money, the only imperative is signing one top 6 winger and one bottom 6 winger (either Pascal Dupuis and Matt Cooke, or two younger, cheaper guys to replace them.) Craig Adams is going to re-sign for his typical $700-800k-ish deal. They've still got a top 6 that includes Sid, Geno, Neal, Kunitz, and the eminently ready Beau Bennett.
What about when the Letang and Malkin extensions kick in, you ask? As of today and assuming Letang's deal gets done, the Pens would be nearly $20 million under the existing cap of $64,300,000 in 2014-15. There is a lot of informed speculation that the cap will be back to at least $70,000,000 by that time. So what, exactly, are people worried about?
If you don't like the pieces you get for your $45 million in 2014-15 (Crosby, Malkin, James Neal, Chris Kunitz, Beau Bennett, Letang, Paul Martin, and Fleury), that's a different story, and an entirely different debate. But with an infusion of young, cheap, blue chip defenseman like Despres, Maatta, Dumoulin, Pouliot, and Harrington ready or nearly ready to play, there will be cash left over to fill out a roster. And if there isn't? That's why you negotiate limitations to a no-trade clause.
Sunday, June 30, 2013
Reports of New Letang Deal: Keep Your Eye on the NTC
By Artistry
Twitter is exploding at this hour with reports that the Penguins and Kris Letang are finalizing an extension.
As sexy as the thought was of getting a treasure trove of assets in return for a guy with less composure than a rabid squirrel, this is probably the right move. You don't win a Stanley Cup without an elite defenseman. And nobody questions that Letang is one of the Top 10 defenseman in the league. That's a hole the Pens couldn't possibly fill, probably for years to come.
In other news, Pascal Dupuis is about to walk. As predicted.
Twitter is exploding at this hour with reports that the Penguins and Kris Letang are finalizing an extension.
Kris Letang contract with Penguins. 8 years / 58 M (#58!) 7.25 AVV Limited no trade to 15 teams. #RDSThat $7.25M cap hit is higher than we're comfortable with, but not significantly so. The primary sticking point is the no-trade clause. No one -- not us, not you, not Ray Shero, not any of the pundits who will tell you what they think of the numbers -- has any idea what this deal will look like two years from now. Letang may be a steal at $7.25M or an absolute albatross. The key is whether the Penguins can move him. And if there really is a 15 team NTC in the agreement, they'll have that option.
— Renaud Lavoie (@RenLavoieRDS) June 30, 2013
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| Totally understand if you have mixed feelings. |
In other news, Pascal Dupuis is about to walk. As predicted.
Friday, June 21, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 5: Let's Get Nuts
By Artistry (follow me on Twitter)
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
Day 4: Where Brooklyn at?
You can't always get what you want, but if you spend an hour working out an elaborate multi-team trade instead of working on a brief that needs to be filed the next day, you just might find you get what you need. Here's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Let's say you're Ray Shero and you really want Cam Fowler from Anaheim to anchor your defense for the next 10 years because a guy named Cam Fowler from Windsor, Ontario can't not become a great defenseman. You pull up the Ducks' roster and call Bob Murray and when he picks up you say, "Bob, thanks for calling about trading me Cam Fowler for Kris Letang. I really respect your initiative, but I'm looking at your roster and I just don't see a second piece that gets this trade done. Hang on a sec and let me get Craig MacTavish on the phone in Edmonton."
See what this crazy conference call becomes, after the jump...
"Craig, are you there? Bob, are you still on? Ok, great. Craig, you got a ton of guys you need to lock up long term and you need a veteran to show them what it takes to win. What if I told you I'd be willing to part with Chris Kunitz if you gave me the #7 pick in the draft and another piece? Is that something you might be interested in?"
"Ok, I hear what you're saying, you want some blueline help. Don't we all. Listen, I know a team that will pretty much do whatever they feel like doing on any given day, but their GM blocks all calls from the 412 area code. Can you conference in Paul Holmgren?"
"Hey Paul, it's Ray ... no don't hang up! I got Bob and Craig on the phone, too. ... I disagree about Giroux, but let's agree to disagree. ... Anyway, you guys are only a couple million over the cap and I think I've figured out a way for you to get Bobby Ryan to replace Danny Briere even though you don't really need him. ... I'm glad I got your attention."
"Craig needs some defense, and a big part of the reason that everyone hates your team is because you have a guy named Brayden and a guy named Braydon. It's very obnoxious. But if you want to cure this problem, maybe you can send Braydon to Edmonton and then Bob can send Bobby to you guys? You can even put Clarke on his jersey just for fun."
"Whoa, stop screaming Bob, I'm not done. Craig, like I said before, you have tons of high-end talent that you aren't going to be able to sign, and if my team proved anything this year, it's that it's no use having an all-star team. Can you send Sam Gagner to Bob?"
"Good. Now ... Paul! Stop trying to re-sign Kimmo Timonen to an 18-year extension, that's not allowed anymore! And listen to me, because I'm not done with you. All you've given up so far is Braydon Coburn for Bobby Ryan, and we all know it takes more than that. So here's what you're going to do. You're going to send that 11th overall pick you've been dangling to St. Louis -- I'm texting this to Doug right now -- because they have three higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart and I've been trying to trade for him for 4 years."
"Guys, guys, keep it down. I know I've just addressed all of your needs in a fair, reasonable manner, and that this is very unfamiliar to most of you. But now that I've got you all worked into a lather, there's just one more thing I need. Bob, you just got the best player in the trade and a stud young center. I'm going to need your young goalie John Gibson. Yes, the one from Pittsburgh. You know, just in case."
Now that's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Oilers (who need stay-at-home D and some sandpaper and veteran presence up front) get:
Braydon Coburn
Chris Kunitz
Ducks (who need a 2nd line center and an elite D-man to pair with Beauchemin) get:
Sam Gagner
Kris Letang
Flyers (who just want Bobby Ryan so badly they can taste it) get:
Bobby Ryan
Blues (who have two higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart) get:
#11 overall pick from Flyers
Pens (who need youth, size, and replacements for two guys they will likely not extend) get:
Cam Fowler
John Gibson
Chris Stewart
#7 overall pick from Oilers
If the Pens GM can engineer just one simple five-team transaction involving 8 players and 2 draft picks, he can package two guys who will likely walk next summer for a 21-year-old, 20 minute a night defenseman who is locked up for $4 million a year through 2017-18, a legit goalie prospect, a young stud winger with undeniable net front presence, and a top pick he can always package with Matt Niskanen for yet another win-now player. You're welcome, Ray! It's been our pleasure.
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
Day 4: Where Brooklyn at?
You can't always get what you want, but if you spend an hour working out an elaborate multi-team trade instead of working on a brief that needs to be filed the next day, you just might find you get what you need. Here's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Let's say you're Ray Shero and you really want Cam Fowler from Anaheim to anchor your defense for the next 10 years because a guy named Cam Fowler from Windsor, Ontario can't not become a great defenseman. You pull up the Ducks' roster and call Bob Murray and when he picks up you say, "Bob, thanks for calling about trading me Cam Fowler for Kris Letang. I really respect your initiative, but I'm looking at your roster and I just don't see a second piece that gets this trade done. Hang on a sec and let me get Craig MacTavish on the phone in Edmonton."
See what this crazy conference call becomes, after the jump...
"Craig, are you there? Bob, are you still on? Ok, great. Craig, you got a ton of guys you need to lock up long term and you need a veteran to show them what it takes to win. What if I told you I'd be willing to part with Chris Kunitz if you gave me the #7 pick in the draft and another piece? Is that something you might be interested in?"
"Ok, I hear what you're saying, you want some blueline help. Don't we all. Listen, I know a team that will pretty much do whatever they feel like doing on any given day, but their GM blocks all calls from the 412 area code. Can you conference in Paul Holmgren?"
"Hey Paul, it's Ray ... no don't hang up! I got Bob and Craig on the phone, too. ... I disagree about Giroux, but let's agree to disagree. ... Anyway, you guys are only a couple million over the cap and I think I've figured out a way for you to get Bobby Ryan to replace Danny Briere even though you don't really need him. ... I'm glad I got your attention."
"Craig needs some defense, and a big part of the reason that everyone hates your team is because you have a guy named Brayden and a guy named Braydon. It's very obnoxious. But if you want to cure this problem, maybe you can send Braydon to Edmonton and then Bob can send Bobby to you guys? You can even put Clarke on his jersey just for fun."
"Whoa, stop screaming Bob, I'm not done. Craig, like I said before, you have tons of high-end talent that you aren't going to be able to sign, and if my team proved anything this year, it's that it's no use having an all-star team. Can you send Sam Gagner to Bob?"
"Good. Now ... Paul! Stop trying to re-sign Kimmo Timonen to an 18-year extension, that's not allowed anymore! And listen to me, because I'm not done with you. All you've given up so far is Braydon Coburn for Bobby Ryan, and we all know it takes more than that. So here's what you're going to do. You're going to send that 11th overall pick you've been dangling to St. Louis -- I'm texting this to Doug right now -- because they have three higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart and I've been trying to trade for him for 4 years."
"Guys, guys, keep it down. I know I've just addressed all of your needs in a fair, reasonable manner, and that this is very unfamiliar to most of you. But now that I've got you all worked into a lather, there's just one more thing I need. Bob, you just got the best player in the trade and a stud young center. I'm going to need your young goalie John Gibson. Yes, the one from Pittsburgh. You know, just in case."
Now that's how you pull off a blockbuster.
Oilers (who need stay-at-home D and some sandpaper and veteran presence up front) get:
Braydon Coburn
Chris Kunitz
Ducks (who need a 2nd line center and an elite D-man to pair with Beauchemin) get:
Sam Gagner
Kris Letang
Flyers (who just want Bobby Ryan so badly they can taste it) get:
Bobby Ryan
Blues (who have two higher priority RFAs than Chris Stewart) get:
#11 overall pick from Flyers
Pens (who need youth, size, and replacements for two guys they will likely not extend) get:
Cam Fowler
John Gibson
Chris Stewart
#7 overall pick from Oilers
If the Pens GM can engineer just one simple five-team transaction involving 8 players and 2 draft picks, he can package two guys who will likely walk next summer for a 21-year-old, 20 minute a night defenseman who is locked up for $4 million a year through 2017-18, a legit goalie prospect, a young stud winger with undeniable net front presence, and a top pick he can always package with Matt Niskanen for yet another win-now player. You're welcome, Ray! It's been our pleasure.
Thursday, June 20, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 4: Where Brooklyn At?
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
One of the problems we encounter when coming up with fake Kris Letang trades is that we assume all 29 other teams are rational actors. In real life, we know that's not the case, but unless you're with Ray Shero at the GM meetings this week, it's hard to identify the marks. It'd be great to trade with the Flyers because they seem willing to do whatever, whenever, but they're at least smart enough to know better than to trade with the Penguins (there are reports the Flyers are shopping Braydon Coburn and the 11th pick for Bobby Ryan, and Kris Letang is a more valuable player than Bobby Ryan). The Coyotes and Jets have some nice pieces, but the uncertainty about where the Coyotes will be next season, and whether Letang would even sign a long-term deal with either of those teams, makes those deals too speculative.
Other teams we're crossing off, and a proposed deal, after the jump...
Say goodbye to:
Montreal and Ottawa, because Letang is superfluous with Subban and Karlsson.
Vancouver because they'll want to re-sign the Sedins and already have five defensemen making over $4M/year.
Chicago and Boston because they're too good without him and don't need him.
San Jose, because in the words of Artistry, their good players are too expensive, and their prospects aren't sexy enough.
Minnesota (Suter)
L.A. (Doughty)
Nashville (Weber)
Edmonton, Florida, and Columbus for similar reasons to Phoenix and Winnipeg
St. Louis, because if they can re-sign Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk, both RFAs, then Letang is unnecessary
Taking out the three teams we covered on days 1-3 of KLTW -- Toronto, Detroit, and Tampa -- who's left?
Washington (now this is getting interesting)
Carolina (great relationship between GMs)
Anaheim (because every team is always trading for Bobby Ryan)
Colorado (but a lot of uncertainty about the draft)
Dallas (signed Gonchar to a 2yr/$10M deal, so you know they're DTF)
New York Rangers (Sather is always up for whatever)
Buffalo (we could learn to like Ryan Miller for a season)
Calgary (also up for whatevs)
New Jersey (they'd LOVE Letang, but they also have like 3 players under contract)
New York Islanders (they say Brooklyn is the Montreal of the U.S. (no one says that))
In picking among this rather unimpressive group of teams, it's important to keep in mind what the Pens need to get in return for Letang. At minimum, the Pens need a defensemen who can play 20 minutes a night, and a forward with speed and youth (preferably 25 and under). Plus picks and all that stuff. Despite the hardened consensus that the Jordan Staal trade was a good one, we're a little less certain than most. Consider: in return for an absolute horse, the only immediate help the Pens got was a rather underwhelming third line center. The prospects and picks the Pens got may turn out to be good, but because the team had to go for a Cup in 2013, Shero was forced to use this surplus of assets to get veterans -- late in a very short season, no less -- who ended up not helping that much. The return for Letang has to be much less speculative. To think that Shero can get one OK player and a bunch of assets, then flip those assets at the trade deadline to go for the 2014 Cup, would be to ignore the past 4 years of that strategy not really working.
So let's spin the Wheel of Mediocrity and see where it lands.
Still spinning...
The Islanders proved in the first round that they are a team on the rise with a legitimate MVP candidate in John Tavares and a fan base that's thirsting for success now, not at some undetermined time in the future.
That's where Letang comes in.
A core of Letang and Tavares guarantees the Islanders relevancy, and success, over the next decade. They haven't been relevant or successful in 20 years. A top-3 MVP candidate and a top-3 Norris candidate who would fit perfectly with their up-tempo style? The soon-to-be weirdo Brooklyn hipster bandwagon fans can get on board with that. And they have plenty of cap space.
The Pens basically auditioned their return in this trade for 6 games last month, so it isn't hard to pick to favorites: Travis Hamonic (a RFA, but we assume for this exercise that this will all work itself out) and Kyle Okposo.
Before Islanders fans get all upset that these are their two favorite players, remember: Hamonic briefly got inside the head of a player into whose head it is relatively easy to get, but then said player lit up the scoreboard. Okposo got the Pierre McGuire Leadership Lather during the first round, but at least two of his goals were scored by Marc-Andre Fleury. And he had 4 goals during the regular season. Let's not pretend these guys are all-stars.
But let's also not pretend that these guys are nobodies because their skating, youthful energy, and tenacity would instantly make the Pens a lot harder to play against. They're both pricks, but they're both also pretty good.
Throw in the Isles first round pick (15th overall), or some other high-level prospect, and now we're talking. Enough or not enough?
Kris Letang Trade Week concludes on Friday with a blockbuster including pretty much every team in the league.
Day 1: All the background info, then a trip to Toronto
Day 2: Across the river to Detroit
Day 3: Big names in Tampa
One of the problems we encounter when coming up with fake Kris Letang trades is that we assume all 29 other teams are rational actors. In real life, we know that's not the case, but unless you're with Ray Shero at the GM meetings this week, it's hard to identify the marks. It'd be great to trade with the Flyers because they seem willing to do whatever, whenever, but they're at least smart enough to know better than to trade with the Penguins (there are reports the Flyers are shopping Braydon Coburn and the 11th pick for Bobby Ryan, and Kris Letang is a more valuable player than Bobby Ryan). The Coyotes and Jets have some nice pieces, but the uncertainty about where the Coyotes will be next season, and whether Letang would even sign a long-term deal with either of those teams, makes those deals too speculative.
Other teams we're crossing off, and a proposed deal, after the jump...
Say goodbye to:
Montreal and Ottawa, because Letang is superfluous with Subban and Karlsson.
Vancouver because they'll want to re-sign the Sedins and already have five defensemen making over $4M/year.
Chicago and Boston because they're too good without him and don't need him.
San Jose, because in the words of Artistry, their good players are too expensive, and their prospects aren't sexy enough.
Minnesota (Suter)
L.A. (Doughty)
Nashville (Weber)
Edmonton, Florida, and Columbus for similar reasons to Phoenix and Winnipeg
St. Louis, because if they can re-sign Pietrangelo and Shattenkirk, both RFAs, then Letang is unnecessary
Taking out the three teams we covered on days 1-3 of KLTW -- Toronto, Detroit, and Tampa -- who's left?
Washington (now this is getting interesting)
Carolina (great relationship between GMs)
Anaheim (because every team is always trading for Bobby Ryan)
Colorado (but a lot of uncertainty about the draft)
Dallas (signed Gonchar to a 2yr/$10M deal, so you know they're DTF)
New York Rangers (Sather is always up for whatever)
Buffalo (we could learn to like Ryan Miller for a season)
Calgary (also up for whatevs)
New Jersey (they'd LOVE Letang, but they also have like 3 players under contract)
New York Islanders (they say Brooklyn is the Montreal of the U.S. (no one says that))
In picking among this rather unimpressive group of teams, it's important to keep in mind what the Pens need to get in return for Letang. At minimum, the Pens need a defensemen who can play 20 minutes a night, and a forward with speed and youth (preferably 25 and under). Plus picks and all that stuff. Despite the hardened consensus that the Jordan Staal trade was a good one, we're a little less certain than most. Consider: in return for an absolute horse, the only immediate help the Pens got was a rather underwhelming third line center. The prospects and picks the Pens got may turn out to be good, but because the team had to go for a Cup in 2013, Shero was forced to use this surplus of assets to get veterans -- late in a very short season, no less -- who ended up not helping that much. The return for Letang has to be much less speculative. To think that Shero can get one OK player and a bunch of assets, then flip those assets at the trade deadline to go for the 2014 Cup, would be to ignore the past 4 years of that strategy not really working.
So let's spin the Wheel of Mediocrity and see where it lands.
Still spinning...
 |
| Perfect. |
That's where Letang comes in.
A core of Letang and Tavares guarantees the Islanders relevancy, and success, over the next decade. They haven't been relevant or successful in 20 years. A top-3 MVP candidate and a top-3 Norris candidate who would fit perfectly with their up-tempo style? The soon-to-be weirdo Brooklyn hipster bandwagon fans can get on board with that. And they have plenty of cap space.
 |
| No need for parking when everyone is going to bike to the game. |
Before Islanders fans get all upset that these are their two favorite players, remember: Hamonic briefly got inside the head of a player into whose head it is relatively easy to get, but then said player lit up the scoreboard. Okposo got the Pierre McGuire Leadership Lather during the first round, but at least two of his goals were scored by Marc-Andre Fleury. And he had 4 goals during the regular season. Let's not pretend these guys are all-stars.
But let's also not pretend that these guys are nobodies because their skating, youthful energy, and tenacity would instantly make the Pens a lot harder to play against. They're both pricks, but they're both also pretty good.
 |
| Has a real chance to become an iconic picture. |
Kris Letang Trade Week concludes on Friday with a blockbuster including pretty much every team in the league.
Wednesday, June 19, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 3: A blockbuster in Tampa
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
Day 1: Toronto
Day 2: Detroit
Tampa has three things that all teams covet: the #3 overall pick in what is by all accounts a very good draft; a former #2 overall pick about to enter his prime and signed to a very reasonable $4M/yr cap hit for the next 4 seasons; and strip clubs.
The Pens, in Kristopher Letang, have an asset that will instantly improve any team he ends up getting traded to and it'd be great for his ego to continue piling up ungodly offensive statistics as a result of throwing long passes to uber-talented finishers like he has been doing in Pittsburgh for the past 4 years.
There's a match to be made here. We're going to find it.
If the Pens could get Hedman and the #3 overall pick for Letang, it would be a no-brainer, but it's also not going to happen unless Jeff Vinik just says, "F-this, I have Vinny Lecavailer under contract at $7.5M til the end of time, I want to win the Stanley Cup and sell the team before he mummifies on the bench. Get me Kris Letang!" That sounds like a ridiculous strategy from a guy who just sold his hedge fund so that he could focus more on his ownership of the Lightning. But what's also ridiculous is that his hedge fund reportedly DECLINED 4.8% since July 1, 2012 while pretty much everyone else invested in the market got a double digit return. I walked by a Citibank yesterday and they handed me an envelope with $10,000 in cash just because. The point is, you never know with Tampa.
Before we go further, why Victor Hedman? Well, he's a good player and has a really nice contract taking him through 2017. He was drafted #2 overall, and even though he hasn't developed into the MVP-caliber player that #1 overall pick John Tavares has, he's still good and will probably get better. It doesn't matter if he's not as good as you'd want a #2 overall pick to be for the simple reason that the Pens didn't draft him #2 overall, so who cares? Plus he sat in the row directly behind me at Game 3 of the Pens-Wings Stanley Cup Final in 2009. Don't discount that.
(Tangent alert. Maybe Hedman is the Jordan Staal of defensemen, drafted #2 overall and a nice player, but not quite as good as guys drafted right after him? Maybe Duchene, Kane, Ekman-Larson, and Kadri are to Hedman what Jonathan Toews, Nick Backstrom and Phil Kessel are to Jordan Staal? Side tangent alert. We love Ray Shero, but any assessment of his tenure with the Pens is incomplete if it doesn't at least point out that he drafted Staal over Toews. Tangent over.)
So how do the Pens get Hedman & more for Letang?
Tampa gets Kris Letang.
The Pens get:
Victor Hedman
Benoit Pouliot (a restricted free agent, but all of our trades assume Pens can sign these people)
Alex Killorn (Tampa's top prospect at Left Wing, but also listed as a center in some places)
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa's top prospect at right wing)
No idea if this is a sufficient return or too much of a return, but that's sort of the whole reason teams want Kris Letang: he's in his prime, he's durable, he's proven, and he is nominated for the Norris Trophy which all but assures he will be nominated every year for the remainder of his career even if he doesn't deserve it. You know, like this year. Arguably.
Day 1: Toronto
Day 2: Detroit
Tampa has three things that all teams covet: the #3 overall pick in what is by all accounts a very good draft; a former #2 overall pick about to enter his prime and signed to a very reasonable $4M/yr cap hit for the next 4 seasons; and strip clubs.
 |
| Tampa: All you need is a beer koozie, a pontoon boat, and a tattoo of a scorpion. |
There's a match to be made here. We're going to find it.
If the Pens could get Hedman and the #3 overall pick for Letang, it would be a no-brainer, but it's also not going to happen unless Jeff Vinik just says, "F-this, I have Vinny Lecavailer under contract at $7.5M til the end of time, I want to win the Stanley Cup and sell the team before he mummifies on the bench. Get me Kris Letang!" That sounds like a ridiculous strategy from a guy who just sold his hedge fund so that he could focus more on his ownership of the Lightning. But what's also ridiculous is that his hedge fund reportedly DECLINED 4.8% since July 1, 2012 while pretty much everyone else invested in the market got a double digit return. I walked by a Citibank yesterday and they handed me an envelope with $10,000 in cash just because. The point is, you never know with Tampa.
Before we go further, why Victor Hedman? Well, he's a good player and has a really nice contract taking him through 2017. He was drafted #2 overall, and even though he hasn't developed into the MVP-caliber player that #1 overall pick John Tavares has, he's still good and will probably get better. It doesn't matter if he's not as good as you'd want a #2 overall pick to be for the simple reason that the Pens didn't draft him #2 overall, so who cares? Plus he sat in the row directly behind me at Game 3 of the Pens-Wings Stanley Cup Final in 2009. Don't discount that.
(Tangent alert. Maybe Hedman is the Jordan Staal of defensemen, drafted #2 overall and a nice player, but not quite as good as guys drafted right after him? Maybe Duchene, Kane, Ekman-Larson, and Kadri are to Hedman what Jonathan Toews, Nick Backstrom and Phil Kessel are to Jordan Staal? Side tangent alert. We love Ray Shero, but any assessment of his tenure with the Pens is incomplete if it doesn't at least point out that he drafted Staal over Toews. Tangent over.)
Tampa gets Kris Letang.
The Pens get:
Victor Hedman
Benoit Pouliot (a restricted free agent, but all of our trades assume Pens can sign these people)
Alex Killorn (Tampa's top prospect at Left Wing, but also listed as a center in some places)
Nikita Kucherov (Tampa's top prospect at right wing)
No idea if this is a sufficient return or too much of a return, but that's sort of the whole reason teams want Kris Letang: he's in his prime, he's durable, he's proven, and he is nominated for the Norris Trophy which all but assures he will be nominated every year for the remainder of his career even if he doesn't deserve it. You know, like this year. Arguably.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 2: The Detroit Red Wings
By Artistry (follow me on Twitter)
Click here for Day 1 of Kris Letang Trade Week: Toronto
The subject of today's unrealistic Kris Letang trade that will never happen is the Detroit Red Wings. Admittedly still searching for Niklas Lidstrom's heir and having dipped their toes into the Keith Yandle pool before presumably deciding the trade price was too steep, the Wings could be an ideal dance partner. Only one problem: Mrs. Holland didn't raise no dummy. Ken Holland is like a bizarro Ray Shero, the primary difference being Ken Holland has to live in Detroit. The pitch from Shero has to be this: "Look, we agree that Letang has transcendent talent. He's just untamed, a wild stallion. And Mike Babcock may be the best jockey in the world." If Mike Babcock gets his hands on Kris Letang, then just like that, Detroit may have another hall of famer in the stable. They've got excellent support in the affordable Nik Kronwall and the soon to be UFA Jonathan Ericsson. If Ericsson walks, the Wings, as per usual, have reinforcements ready in Brendan Smith and Jakub Kindl.
Now, what's the return? Here's where Shero and Holland eye each other warily, circling each other, each hyper-aware that his counterpart is no easy mark. Whatever. No bullshit. The Pens need to get faster and younger. Take it or leave it, Ken.
The trade, after the jump...
D Danny DeKeyser
He was signed by the Wings this year out of college, and the kid is getting rave reviews. He apparently acquitted himself well in the playoffs, but we weren't paying much attention. He under contract for 1 more year at $1.35M, then becomes a restricted free agent. Here's the report from hockeysfuture.com:
He's 23 years old and more ready than all the Pens' prospects besides Despres. Add those two to the mix in the fall, let them get 80 games under their belts, and we're off. Biggest downside: Pierre McGuire + a guy named Danny = MUTE.
LW Gustav Nyquist
This is another 23-year-old who is ready to play. Nyquist is a top-6 worthy restricted free agent who the Pens can lock up right now at a reasonable price. He's 5'11 and 185 and fast. Here's hockeysfuture.com:
C/W Darren Helm
You know him from the Cup Finals. He's the kid who was faster than everyone else and an absolute nightmare on the forecheck. The thing about Helm is, he missed the entire 2013 season with some terrible back issues. Who knows if he'll ever be the same. But he's only 26 and locked up for 3 years at $2.125M per. Get him.
The 18th pick in the 2013 entry draft
Too much? You only think that because we just fed you some optimistic speculation about two neophytes who may or may not be good and a guy who may never recover from back problems. The Pens are giving the Wings their new Lidstrom. No, not too much. Just right.
Click here for Day 1 of Kris Letang Trade Week: Toronto
The subject of today's unrealistic Kris Letang trade that will never happen is the Detroit Red Wings. Admittedly still searching for Niklas Lidstrom's heir and having dipped their toes into the Keith Yandle pool before presumably deciding the trade price was too steep, the Wings could be an ideal dance partner. Only one problem: Mrs. Holland didn't raise no dummy. Ken Holland is like a bizarro Ray Shero, the primary difference being Ken Holland has to live in Detroit. The pitch from Shero has to be this: "Look, we agree that Letang has transcendent talent. He's just untamed, a wild stallion. And Mike Babcock may be the best jockey in the world." If Mike Babcock gets his hands on Kris Letang, then just like that, Detroit may have another hall of famer in the stable. They've got excellent support in the affordable Nik Kronwall and the soon to be UFA Jonathan Ericsson. If Ericsson walks, the Wings, as per usual, have reinforcements ready in Brendan Smith and Jakub Kindl.
Now, what's the return? Here's where Shero and Holland eye each other warily, circling each other, each hyper-aware that his counterpart is no easy mark. Whatever. No bullshit. The Pens need to get faster and younger. Take it or leave it, Ken.
The trade, after the jump...
D Danny DeKeyser
He was signed by the Wings this year out of college, and the kid is getting rave reviews. He apparently acquitted himself well in the playoffs, but we weren't paying much attention. He under contract for 1 more year at $1.35M, then becomes a restricted free agent. Here's the report from hockeysfuture.com:
The Clay Township, MI native has blossomed into one of college hockey’s top rearguards. And while he is a defensive defenseman, DeKeyser is by no means the stay-at-home type. He is very mobile, plays intelligently in all three zones, and can be seen jumping into plays when opportunities present themselves. At 6’3” and 198 pounds, DeKeyser has a good frame and one attribute that has had scouts clamoring to get glimpses of him is how well he uses that frame. DeKeyser uses his size, strength and tenacity quite effectively in wearing down opposing players and taking away time and space. This is particularly evident in his excellent play along the boards. DeKeyser is an agile skater with terrific feet and great balance. He moves equally well going north-south and east-west. His skating and feet also allow him to make smooth transitions and make the right plays. One attribute that sets DeKeyser apart from many other collegiate defensemen is his ability to control the tempo of the game. He sees the ice really well and possesses great hockey sense. His decision-making has continually improved with quicker and smarter reads and reactions. DeKeyser possesses a powerful shot and can get shots to the net. He has great hands and moves the puck exceedingly well, too.
He's 23 years old and more ready than all the Pens' prospects besides Despres. Add those two to the mix in the fall, let them get 80 games under their belts, and we're off. Biggest downside: Pierre McGuire + a guy named Danny = MUTE.
 |
| Hair is ready for prime time. |
This is another 23-year-old who is ready to play. Nyquist is a top-6 worthy restricted free agent who the Pens can lock up right now at a reasonable price. He's 5'11 and 185 and fast. Here's hockeysfuture.com:
Nyquist has a very high hockey IQ, and pairing this with his good skating and great passing makes him a true playmaker. Also plays an effective defensive game.Sold.
 |
| Downside: he didn't score here. |
You know him from the Cup Finals. He's the kid who was faster than everyone else and an absolute nightmare on the forecheck. The thing about Helm is, he missed the entire 2013 season with some terrible back issues. Who knows if he'll ever be the same. But he's only 26 and locked up for 3 years at $2.125M per. Get him.
The 18th pick in the 2013 entry draft
Too much? You only think that because we just fed you some optimistic speculation about two neophytes who may or may not be good and a guy who may never recover from back problems. The Pens are giving the Wings their new Lidstrom. No, not too much. Just right.
Monday, June 17, 2013
Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 1: The scene is set for a blockbuster, so let's throw out 5 crazy hypothetical trades. Day 1, Toronto
By GTOG Staff
In our acclaimed season recap podcast, we made the case that the Pens had to at least try to sign Kris Letang to an extension. He is maddeningly frustrating, but can also be terrifyingly good. He gives the Pens the best chance of winning the Cup next year and even if he eats up too much of the cap 3 or 4 years from now, he will still be a tradeable asset if/when the Pens develop another guy who can play 22+ minutes a night. (Watch for the negotiations about whether Letang gets a no-trade clause. He may really want one. The Pens would be nuts to give it to him).
A fair price would be 8 years for $56 million with an average annual cap hit of $7 million. Expensive, but you have to pay for quality. Though there is uncertainly about how much the cap will rise after its initial drop next season, most are very bullish, meaning the contract could be easier to digest over time.
Is it affordable now? Answering that, and the first of five hypothetical Kris Letang trades, after the jump...
Re-signing Letang would only come at a significant, and perhaps prohibitive, cost to the rest of the roster. If the Pens extend Letang at $7 million/year, they'd have around $45 million tied up in 8 guys heading into the 2014-15 season (this assumes re-signing Dupuis at ~$4 million/year, though we think that's on the high side). Simon Despres would be the Pens' highest profile RFA heading into that off-season.
For the sake of optimism, let's assume that the cap jumps back to what it is today ($70 million) entering '14-'15. The Pens would have approximately $25 million left over to pay 14 or 15 roster players, including Despres. That's about $1.6-$1.8 million per player, which means the Pens will either have a lot of league minimum guys or will round out the roster with a dozen Matt Cookes. It's not terrible if you have a few guys under $1M, but it requires some guys to really outperform their salary, a kind way of saying that the coaching staff has to show some trust in the young guys and develop them.
What all this leads us to believe is not that the Pens must trade Letang, but that it's very difficult to imagine keeping both Fleury and Letang. Devoting $4-5 million total to goaltending rather than $7M would be a big relief. If that doesn't seem like enough money for two goalies, consider: this season, the Bruins committed $4.375M to goalies, and the Blackhawks committed $3.81M. It's hard to identify value in goalies, but Ray Shero makes a lot of money to do things that are hard.
[Not-so-quick tangent: One of these hard things is maintaining professionalism and a sense of the big picture when in front of the media, something Shero has handled very well. Though not everyone is impressed. Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, the troll of trolls, the incessant whiner who thinks he's smarter than everyone else even though he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald, the peddler of smug self-righteous paternalism who basically spends the entirety of his time complaining about how dumb hockey is, complained (surprising, right?) that Ray Shero gave Marc-Andre Fleury a "vote of confidence" during Shero's press conference.
Great point, Lambert. The better thing for Shero to do would have been to say, "hey everyone, my goalie stinks and we are desperate to get rid of him, now make me a great offer!" Fans can slam players with no repercussions; but it's the height of irresponsibility for a manager looking to maximize the value of a player to do anything other than publicly express support and appreciation for that player. If Shero wants to get rid of Fleury (and he should), he has to pretend that he wants to keep Flower. If Shero does end up keeping Fleury, whether by choice or because there are no takers for him, there is nothing to gain from a public humiliation. We can only assume that if Lambert put his house up for sale, he'd title the Craigslist post: "SHITTY HOUSE IN TERRIBLE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR SALE!"
And finally, let's not forget that Shero and Fleury have worked together for 7 years and probably like each other personally -- you don't go out and rip someone publicly who you like. Maybe this is hard for Lambert to understand (again, he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald), but it's also what makes the Penguins a destination franchise. The Iginla and Morrow trades didn't work out on the ice, but they both chose to come to Pittsburgh because they wanted to play here. We don't care that Lambert doesn't recognize the value in that. We're just glad Ray Shero does. End of tangent.]
This sets up what is likely to be a repeat of the Jordan Staal scenario: the Pens have a genuine interest in keeping the guy and make a competitive offer to do so. If the player wants it, he stays. If not, he's traded within a matter of days.
For the sake of wasting time, let's assume there's a trade. What's the return? We begin a week of exploring five unrealistic trades below, an exercise we embark on because we enjoy hockey and the NHL, not because we think these trades would actually happen.
Keep in mind:
1) Letang will only count $3.5 million against the cap this coming season, making him one of the league's best bargains in 2013-14. His contract expiration is also well-timed because while the salary cap is dropping next year (when Letang will be affordable for almost anyone) the cap can, and probably will, rise every year after as Letang gets more expensive. If you're bullish on the growth of the salary cap, or if you have a lot of money scheduled to come off the salary cap after the 2013-14 season [cut to us pointing at the Sedin twins], Letang is the perfect asset.
2) Letang is better than Jordan Staal. For all of Letang's faults, this is not even a close comparison. Letang is one of the most physically gifted players in the league; Jordan Staal is a super-tall beast with a good hockey sense, but he also has hands of stone and scores only bi-weekly for long stretches of a season. The Staal deal is a good starting point for a Letang trade, but the Pens have to get back more than prospects and the Brandon Sutter of The Blueline.
3) Trading Kris Letang has the potential to become the worst move of Ray Shero's career. The potential downside of trading Letang far outweighs the potential upside. Although Letang is actually a little bit older (26) than you'd think given his on-ice immaturity, there's still exponential room for growth. It might be as simple as getting him a new coach that can tighten the reins [cut to us pointing at Mike Babcock] to get more Good Letang and less Shout-Go-F-Yourself-At-The-TV-Letang.
Hypothetical Trade #1: The Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto gets: Kris Letang
Pittsburgh gets: James Van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner and a #1 pick (21st overall)
Why it makes sense for Toronto: They get a marquee guy who plays an attractive style of hockey; makes them even faster and an even tougher match-up for any team in the East; takes offensive pressure off of Dion Phaneuf thereby freeing him up to destroy more people in open ice; Letang is insurance if the Leafs plan to let Phaneuf walk as a UFA after the coming season; Letang still has upside.
Why it makes sense for Pittsburgh: JVR is super-talented and a presence in front; he has a reasonable contract at $4.25M/year through 2018, meaning the Pens would have a top-4 of Sid, Geno, Neal, and JVR locked up for the next 5 seasons; though JVR hasn't shown consistent production, he did have 32 points in 48 games last season so he might very well be on the verge of breaking out like James Neal did 2 years ago; Gardiner had a rocky regular season but got rave reviews in the playoffs and was even compared to Scott Neidermayer by Joffrey Lupul; Pens get back into the first round (and maybe take a goalie?); Gardiner is a RFA after this season so the Pens could probably lock him up at a very reasonable $2-$4M/year price tag over the next 2-3 years rather than the $7M they'd have to give Letang.
Why it wouldn't happen: The Leafs made a very similar deal for Phil Kessel -- they gave Boston a 2nd overall pick (Tyler Seguin), a 9th overall pick (Dougie Hamilton), and a 32nd overall pick (Jared Knight). This proposed trade would be similar -- JVR was 2nd overall, Gardiner 17th overall, and Toronto's 1st rounder this season is 21st overall. The Leafs may be hesitant to give up another 3 pieces -- especially ones who they already know are pretty good players -- in exchange for just one guy because they're already trending up without Letang.
From the Pens perspective, the key is how quickly Gardiner can develop and even if the Pens are really high on him, there would still be too much uncertainty on the blue-line this coming season. In any deal that unloads Letang's erratic play, the Pens need some steadiness in return. Gardiner may become that, but he also may be too uncertain this coming season.
Like the Staal trade, this move would only be the start of the broader strategy, as the Pens would still need more defense. The Pens could scour the free agent market, the buyouts, or maybe move one of their perpetually-discussed prospects to get another D-man who can eat up some minutes and bodies. Or they could follow up this trade by moving the one person this deal would make most expendable:
In our acclaimed season recap podcast, we made the case that the Pens had to at least try to sign Kris Letang to an extension. He is maddeningly frustrating, but can also be terrifyingly good. He gives the Pens the best chance of winning the Cup next year and even if he eats up too much of the cap 3 or 4 years from now, he will still be a tradeable asset if/when the Pens develop another guy who can play 22+ minutes a night. (Watch for the negotiations about whether Letang gets a no-trade clause. He may really want one. The Pens would be nuts to give it to him).
|
| This is exactly what Shero should do to Letang's agent if he asks for a NTC |
Is it affordable now? Answering that, and the first of five hypothetical Kris Letang trades, after the jump...
Re-signing Letang would only come at a significant, and perhaps prohibitive, cost to the rest of the roster. If the Pens extend Letang at $7 million/year, they'd have around $45 million tied up in 8 guys heading into the 2014-15 season (this assumes re-signing Dupuis at ~$4 million/year, though we think that's on the high side). Simon Despres would be the Pens' highest profile RFA heading into that off-season.
For the sake of optimism, let's assume that the cap jumps back to what it is today ($70 million) entering '14-'15. The Pens would have approximately $25 million left over to pay 14 or 15 roster players, including Despres. That's about $1.6-$1.8 million per player, which means the Pens will either have a lot of league minimum guys or will round out the roster with a dozen Matt Cookes. It's not terrible if you have a few guys under $1M, but it requires some guys to really outperform their salary, a kind way of saying that the coaching staff has to show some trust in the young guys and develop them.
 |
| Not the right strategy going forward. |
[Not-so-quick tangent: One of these hard things is maintaining professionalism and a sense of the big picture when in front of the media, something Shero has handled very well. Though not everyone is impressed. Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, the troll of trolls, the incessant whiner who thinks he's smarter than everyone else even though he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald, the peddler of smug self-righteous paternalism who basically spends the entirety of his time complaining about how dumb hockey is, complained (surprising, right?) that Ray Shero gave Marc-Andre Fleury a "vote of confidence" during Shero's press conference.
Great point, Lambert. The better thing for Shero to do would have been to say, "hey everyone, my goalie stinks and we are desperate to get rid of him, now make me a great offer!" Fans can slam players with no repercussions; but it's the height of irresponsibility for a manager looking to maximize the value of a player to do anything other than publicly express support and appreciation for that player. If Shero wants to get rid of Fleury (and he should), he has to pretend that he wants to keep Flower. If Shero does end up keeping Fleury, whether by choice or because there are no takers for him, there is nothing to gain from a public humiliation. We can only assume that if Lambert put his house up for sale, he'd title the Craigslist post: "SHITTY HOUSE IN TERRIBLE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR SALE!"
And finally, let's not forget that Shero and Fleury have worked together for 7 years and probably like each other personally -- you don't go out and rip someone publicly who you like. Maybe this is hard for Lambert to understand (again, he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald), but it's also what makes the Penguins a destination franchise. The Iginla and Morrow trades didn't work out on the ice, but they both chose to come to Pittsburgh because they wanted to play here. We don't care that Lambert doesn't recognize the value in that. We're just glad Ray Shero does. End of tangent.]
This sets up what is likely to be a repeat of the Jordan Staal scenario: the Pens have a genuine interest in keeping the guy and make a competitive offer to do so. If the player wants it, he stays. If not, he's traded within a matter of days.
 |
| We'd be stunned if any of his kids' names didn't start with a K. |
Keep in mind:
1) Letang will only count $3.5 million against the cap this coming season, making him one of the league's best bargains in 2013-14. His contract expiration is also well-timed because while the salary cap is dropping next year (when Letang will be affordable for almost anyone) the cap can, and probably will, rise every year after as Letang gets more expensive. If you're bullish on the growth of the salary cap, or if you have a lot of money scheduled to come off the salary cap after the 2013-14 season [cut to us pointing at the Sedin twins], Letang is the perfect asset.
2) Letang is better than Jordan Staal. For all of Letang's faults, this is not even a close comparison. Letang is one of the most physically gifted players in the league; Jordan Staal is a super-tall beast with a good hockey sense, but he also has hands of stone and scores only bi-weekly for long stretches of a season. The Staal deal is a good starting point for a Letang trade, but the Pens have to get back more than prospects and the Brandon Sutter of The Blueline.
3) Trading Kris Letang has the potential to become the worst move of Ray Shero's career. The potential downside of trading Letang far outweighs the potential upside. Although Letang is actually a little bit older (26) than you'd think given his on-ice immaturity, there's still exponential room for growth. It might be as simple as getting him a new coach that can tighten the reins [cut to us pointing at Mike Babcock] to get more Good Letang and less Shout-Go-F-Yourself-At-The-TV-Letang.
Hypothetical Trade #1: The Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto gets: Kris Letang
Pittsburgh gets: James Van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner and a #1 pick (21st overall)
Why it makes sense for Toronto: They get a marquee guy who plays an attractive style of hockey; makes them even faster and an even tougher match-up for any team in the East; takes offensive pressure off of Dion Phaneuf thereby freeing him up to destroy more people in open ice; Letang is insurance if the Leafs plan to let Phaneuf walk as a UFA after the coming season; Letang still has upside.
Why it makes sense for Pittsburgh: JVR is super-talented and a presence in front; he has a reasonable contract at $4.25M/year through 2018, meaning the Pens would have a top-4 of Sid, Geno, Neal, and JVR locked up for the next 5 seasons; though JVR hasn't shown consistent production, he did have 32 points in 48 games last season so he might very well be on the verge of breaking out like James Neal did 2 years ago; Gardiner had a rocky regular season but got rave reviews in the playoffs and was even compared to Scott Neidermayer by Joffrey Lupul; Pens get back into the first round (and maybe take a goalie?); Gardiner is a RFA after this season so the Pens could probably lock him up at a very reasonable $2-$4M/year price tag over the next 2-3 years rather than the $7M they'd have to give Letang.
Why it wouldn't happen: The Leafs made a very similar deal for Phil Kessel -- they gave Boston a 2nd overall pick (Tyler Seguin), a 9th overall pick (Dougie Hamilton), and a 32nd overall pick (Jared Knight). This proposed trade would be similar -- JVR was 2nd overall, Gardiner 17th overall, and Toronto's 1st rounder this season is 21st overall. The Leafs may be hesitant to give up another 3 pieces -- especially ones who they already know are pretty good players -- in exchange for just one guy because they're already trending up without Letang.
From the Pens perspective, the key is how quickly Gardiner can develop and even if the Pens are really high on him, there would still be too much uncertainty on the blue-line this coming season. In any deal that unloads Letang's erratic play, the Pens need some steadiness in return. Gardiner may become that, but he also may be too uncertain this coming season.
Like the Staal trade, this move would only be the start of the broader strategy, as the Pens would still need more defense. The Pens could scour the free agent market, the buyouts, or maybe move one of their perpetually-discussed prospects to get another D-man who can eat up some minutes and bodies. Or they could follow up this trade by moving the one person this deal would make most expendable:
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| Wave goodbye to Hands? Noooooooo!!!! |
Saturday, June 8, 2013
Pens fall to Bruins, 1-0; Season ends with a whimper
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
[Listen to the Game 4 recap podcast below or on our Spreaker page. You can click here to subscribe on iTunes, or download the Spreaker app for iPhone or Android]
If pucks could talk, Jarome Iginla's wrist shot at the final buzzer would have let out a feeble whimper as it landed almost apologetically in the glove of Tukka Rask. It was a fitting and symbolic end to a series the Pens deserved to lose and the Bruins deserved to win. Now armed with a body of work that reads like an inventory of a losing team's most-favored excuses -- a hot goalie, injuries, a bad goalie, and no good bounces -- the Pens have another long offseason of soul-searching ahead.
Read on for the burial...
When a team loses in such a spectacularly disappointing manner, the brain can pull you in two opposite directions are the same time. There's the reactionary "fire everybody, Crosby sucks" approach, and then there's the "I'll just wait a few weeks and let this pain fade away so that when I decide what changes I want to make I will have tricked myself into thinking we were just a few bounces away" method (aka, The Full Leonsis).
The truth for Ray Shero and the Pens is somewhere in between, but he'd be wise to not waste the opportunity that comes with having your team so thoroughly embarrassed for the world to see. Though the systematic errors are glaring and the individual failures are spectacular, the common thread that binds the last four playoff disappointments was woven at the Herm Edwards School of Simplicity: the Pens don't do the right thing often enough.
It's less important what that right thing is, and much more important that the Pens either can't identify it or can't do it. The Pens started the Eastern Conference Finals playing the right way, but couldn't sustain it when it turned out that Boston was not going to be like Ottawa and pour the accelerating lubricant for the Pens' glide into the next round. So the Pens stopped playing the right way for the next 5 periods and instead dug the first three feet of their own grave. And once the Pens identified the problems in the way they played in games 1 and 2 and tightened up defensively, they could not, shot-differential be damned, consistently generate anything resembling the high quality scoring chances that the Pens would need to beat a locked-in goalie like Rask. The Pens may spend the next few weeks feeling sorry for themselves for not catching a single break over 8 periods in Boston, but that would obscure the fact that the Pens rolled over when things didn't come easily in games 1 and 2, and couldn't persevere in games 3 and 4 once they finally seemed to grasp the idea that winning playoff games is supposed to be hard.
The Pens would have eventually broken through on Rask had they continued to play the way they did in games 3 and 4, but you don't get an "eventually" in the playoffs. And, given this team's track record of mixing random slices of inexcusable chaos into their discipline sandwich, what indication is there that the Pens could have sustained their overall solid performances in games 3 and 4 anyway?
It doesn't matter what might have happened in a game 5 or if the Pens had taken the lead at any point in one of these games because they didn't. It doesn't matter if the Pens were playing the right way when they went out because they went out. By design, the playoffs require excellence across a small sample size; whether the Pens were trending in the right direction when they went out is irrelevant. There's already a trophy for trending well over a large amount of time.
It's an indictment of everyone in the organization that the Pens went out this way, so it's hard to pin more blame on any one person than it is on another. Ray Shero's acquisitions didn't get the team any further than it would have gone without those guys, and it's easy to argue that getting both Morrow and Iginla stagnated a team that simply didn't need both of them. It's great to have a fancy shoe collection, but you can only wear one pair at a time. Dan Bylsma added to an ever-growing resume of presiding over inexplicable performances, and when he finally recalibrated his team in one area (defense), he seemed to do it at the expense of another (offense). Crosby, Malkin, Neal and Letang had no points in 4 games, and while that will almost certainly never happen again over any future 4-game stretch, it still happened. And the supporting cast, supposedly the deepest in the league, didn't hold the fort while the stars got it together. It was a total failure by everyone.
Last night's game was exciting only because it was meaningful -- if that game happens in December, it's a total snooze fest, the kind of game where if you DVR'd it, you'd actually get mad at your roommate for NOT spoiling the score and warning you against spending three hours watching it. It's admirable (and appreciated because we watch all 82 games of it) that the Pens try to play hockey the way most people want it to be played; you know, with actual goals and excitement. But the Pens have to be careful not to martyr themselves as the paragon of the way hockey should be played. Because while it might be nice to enjoy the spoils of the afterlife -- like the MVP and Norris Trophy that could be coming in a couple days -- the bottom line is that you're dead.
[Listen to the Game 4 recap podcast below or on our Spreaker page. You can click here to subscribe on iTunes, or download the Spreaker app for iPhone or Android]
If pucks could talk, Jarome Iginla's wrist shot at the final buzzer would have let out a feeble whimper as it landed almost apologetically in the glove of Tukka Rask. It was a fitting and symbolic end to a series the Pens deserved to lose and the Bruins deserved to win. Now armed with a body of work that reads like an inventory of a losing team's most-favored excuses -- a hot goalie, injuries, a bad goalie, and no good bounces -- the Pens have another long offseason of soul-searching ahead.
Read on for the burial...
When a team loses in such a spectacularly disappointing manner, the brain can pull you in two opposite directions are the same time. There's the reactionary "fire everybody, Crosby sucks" approach, and then there's the "I'll just wait a few weeks and let this pain fade away so that when I decide what changes I want to make I will have tricked myself into thinking we were just a few bounces away" method (aka, The Full Leonsis).
The truth for Ray Shero and the Pens is somewhere in between, but he'd be wise to not waste the opportunity that comes with having your team so thoroughly embarrassed for the world to see. Though the systematic errors are glaring and the individual failures are spectacular, the common thread that binds the last four playoff disappointments was woven at the Herm Edwards School of Simplicity: the Pens don't do the right thing often enough.
It's less important what that right thing is, and much more important that the Pens either can't identify it or can't do it. The Pens started the Eastern Conference Finals playing the right way, but couldn't sustain it when it turned out that Boston was not going to be like Ottawa and pour the accelerating lubricant for the Pens' glide into the next round. So the Pens stopped playing the right way for the next 5 periods and instead dug the first three feet of their own grave. And once the Pens identified the problems in the way they played in games 1 and 2 and tightened up defensively, they could not, shot-differential be damned, consistently generate anything resembling the high quality scoring chances that the Pens would need to beat a locked-in goalie like Rask. The Pens may spend the next few weeks feeling sorry for themselves for not catching a single break over 8 periods in Boston, but that would obscure the fact that the Pens rolled over when things didn't come easily in games 1 and 2, and couldn't persevere in games 3 and 4 once they finally seemed to grasp the idea that winning playoff games is supposed to be hard.
The Pens would have eventually broken through on Rask had they continued to play the way they did in games 3 and 4, but you don't get an "eventually" in the playoffs. And, given this team's track record of mixing random slices of inexcusable chaos into their discipline sandwich, what indication is there that the Pens could have sustained their overall solid performances in games 3 and 4 anyway?
It doesn't matter what might have happened in a game 5 or if the Pens had taken the lead at any point in one of these games because they didn't. It doesn't matter if the Pens were playing the right way when they went out because they went out. By design, the playoffs require excellence across a small sample size; whether the Pens were trending in the right direction when they went out is irrelevant. There's already a trophy for trending well over a large amount of time.
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| Comfort food for GTOG. |
Last night's game was exciting only because it was meaningful -- if that game happens in December, it's a total snooze fest, the kind of game where if you DVR'd it, you'd actually get mad at your roommate for NOT spoiling the score and warning you against spending three hours watching it. It's admirable (and appreciated because we watch all 82 games of it) that the Pens try to play hockey the way most people want it to be played; you know, with actual goals and excitement. But the Pens have to be careful not to martyr themselves as the paragon of the way hockey should be played. Because while it might be nice to enjoy the spoils of the afterlife -- like the MVP and Norris Trophy that could be coming in a couple days -- the bottom line is that you're dead.
Friday, June 7, 2013
Raw Emotion Podcast: The End. Pens lose, 1-0
Pens could have played all weekend. Still wouldn't have scored.
We talk about Game 4, Bylsma's future, the Bruins' defense, late-payment forgiveness, and so much more. It's the GTOG Podcast.
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**
We talk about Game 4, Bylsma's future, the Bruins' defense, late-payment forgiveness, and so much more. It's the GTOG Podcast.
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**
Thursday, June 6, 2013
Some random follow-up thoughts on the Pens' double-OT loss to Boston
By GTOG Staff
Listen to the below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
[If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"]
The more we think about Game 3, the more we end up thinking about games 1 and 2. The Pens probably win that game last night 53 out of 100 times. Unfortunately, they don't play best-of-100 series. Which is exactly why you can't give away 2 playoff games in a series -- at home, no less -- and expect to win 4 of 5 against a very good team when you're pretty close to dead-even with that team when you're both playing at your best. The Pens played really well last night, but all it does is shine a light on the stinkers in the first two games. We know the Pens can play as well as they did in game 3. We still have no idea why they can't do it more consistently.
Unable to put together any sort of cohesive reaction to last night, here are a bunch of random things we're thinking about, in no particular order.
- Along with the misfortune of having just faced down the barrel of a 3-0 series deficit last spring, we have the advantage of knowing exactly how this could work. Take advantage of Boston's inevitable if slight psychological shift in Game 4, when they cannot possibly match the Pens sense of desperation. Score 10 goals in the game (Note: will settle for 3. OK, 2.).
Come back to Pittsburgh and score a tight 3-2 victory. Suddenly, everything is in play. Even losing 5-1 in Game 6.
- Malkin was the best player on the ice last night, and it wasn't particularly close. He gets an A+ for generating scoring chances. But you don't win games with scoring chances. It's hard to think about the 21 shot attempts without thinking about the fact that none of them went in. It's a distinct talent to generate the types of chances that Malkin generated last night; it's also a distinct talent to finish the chances. Some of last night was just being snake-bit. The rest is him needing to be better at finishing. If he was a running back, he'd have been taken out at the goal line.
- The Mike Alstott to Geno Malkin should be Jarome Iginla, but you could make a low-light reel of all the juicy rebounds that have bounced over Iggy's stick in the last month.
- Sidney Crosby was terrible early, but got much better as the game went on. A really strong defensive effort. But that's like complimenting your gardener for not tracking mud in the house. It's not what Sid is paid to do.
- The most disappointing part of Sid's game has been the power-play. It's expected that when teams load up to stop a guy at even-strength, they will usually have some success doing that, especially with players as good as Boston has. The power-play is the time to shake loose from those shackles and at least get comfortable having the puck on your stick. Sid hasn't done that at all. Dreadful on the PP.
- The PK was wonderful last night. PP was the real culprit.
- In moment of candor, would Ray Shero admit that he would have traded Brendan Morrow back to Dallas after Iginla fell in Pens' lap? And would he admit that after getting Morrow, he only got Iginla to keep him away from Boston? Because they're largely redundant. The Pens needed one of them. Not both.
- 7:09 on the PK for Craig Adams. What a performance. If he buries that slapper that hit the post in OT, the city probably names a steel mill after him.
- Refs on "let's take 'em both" patrol are the worst.
- Bylsma is deservedly getting a lot of heat. Arguably his worst stat from last night: Joe Vitale played 9:38 and only took 3 face-offs. If that's all you're using him for, why is he playing over Jokinen and TK, when the team's biggest issue against Boston has been an inability to score?
- It's one thing to dress Vitale if you think you need what he brings. It's another thing entirely to dress Vitale and then act like you don't even want him in the lineup. This really confuses us about Bylsma -- he insists on dressing guys in whom he has no confidence giving even a semi-regular shift. It's not like he doesn't have options.
- Speaking of TK, as we discussed on the podcast, he would have been a real asset in OT. The one thing he never lacks is energy. There's potential for a great match-up against a tired team in OT.
- We've reached the point in the season where we're asking for more Tyler Kennedy. In other news, the Pens are about to get swept.
- Lineup changes for Game 4. Niskanen can't play with Letang. Have to keep Cooke with Geno and Neal. Bennett should stay and get PP time. BB is one definite bright spot heading into next season.
- The Pens scored 10 goals in Game 4 against Philly last year. The Pens also scored 12 in games 1-3. The Pens have 2 goals in 11 periods this series.
- The series isn't over so we're not in the mood to make pronouncements about the off-season. Except for one. Marc-Andre Fleury has got to go. This shouldn't be hard decision, and in light of the decisiveness of Shero's handling of Jordan Staal last year, we expect it will happen quickly. It doesn't matter who else is available. Fleury is not a winning option going forward.
- The way he's played this season, the Pens should feel very fortunate that Vokoun is signed through next season. He can't play 65 games. But the games he plays, he usually plays well.
- For as much talent as Letang has, and as high as his ceiling is, the Pens haven't really accomplished anything with him since he's been the team's best defenseman. Yet he's so gifted that you have to start wondering if a different coach could get him to play the right way more often. Whether here or elsewhere.
Listen to the below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
[If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"]
The more we think about Game 3, the more we end up thinking about games 1 and 2. The Pens probably win that game last night 53 out of 100 times. Unfortunately, they don't play best-of-100 series. Which is exactly why you can't give away 2 playoff games in a series -- at home, no less -- and expect to win 4 of 5 against a very good team when you're pretty close to dead-even with that team when you're both playing at your best. The Pens played really well last night, but all it does is shine a light on the stinkers in the first two games. We know the Pens can play as well as they did in game 3. We still have no idea why they can't do it more consistently.
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| No shame in losing Game 3. Great shame in being down 3-0. |
- Along with the misfortune of having just faced down the barrel of a 3-0 series deficit last spring, we have the advantage of knowing exactly how this could work. Take advantage of Boston's inevitable if slight psychological shift in Game 4, when they cannot possibly match the Pens sense of desperation. Score 10 goals in the game (Note: will settle for 3. OK, 2.).
Come back to Pittsburgh and score a tight 3-2 victory. Suddenly, everything is in play. Even losing 5-1 in Game 6.
- Malkin was the best player on the ice last night, and it wasn't particularly close. He gets an A+ for generating scoring chances. But you don't win games with scoring chances. It's hard to think about the 21 shot attempts without thinking about the fact that none of them went in. It's a distinct talent to generate the types of chances that Malkin generated last night; it's also a distinct talent to finish the chances. Some of last night was just being snake-bit. The rest is him needing to be better at finishing. If he was a running back, he'd have been taken out at the goal line.
- The Mike Alstott to Geno Malkin should be Jarome Iginla, but you could make a low-light reel of all the juicy rebounds that have bounced over Iggy's stick in the last month.
- Sidney Crosby was terrible early, but got much better as the game went on. A really strong defensive effort. But that's like complimenting your gardener for not tracking mud in the house. It's not what Sid is paid to do.
- The most disappointing part of Sid's game has been the power-play. It's expected that when teams load up to stop a guy at even-strength, they will usually have some success doing that, especially with players as good as Boston has. The power-play is the time to shake loose from those shackles and at least get comfortable having the puck on your stick. Sid hasn't done that at all. Dreadful on the PP.
- The PK was wonderful last night. PP was the real culprit.
- In moment of candor, would Ray Shero admit that he would have traded Brendan Morrow back to Dallas after Iginla fell in Pens' lap? And would he admit that after getting Morrow, he only got Iginla to keep him away from Boston? Because they're largely redundant. The Pens needed one of them. Not both.
- 7:09 on the PK for Craig Adams. What a performance. If he buries that slapper that hit the post in OT, the city probably names a steel mill after him.
- Refs on "let's take 'em both" patrol are the worst.
- Bylsma is deservedly getting a lot of heat. Arguably his worst stat from last night: Joe Vitale played 9:38 and only took 3 face-offs. If that's all you're using him for, why is he playing over Jokinen and TK, when the team's biggest issue against Boston has been an inability to score?
- It's one thing to dress Vitale if you think you need what he brings. It's another thing entirely to dress Vitale and then act like you don't even want him in the lineup. This really confuses us about Bylsma -- he insists on dressing guys in whom he has no confidence giving even a semi-regular shift. It's not like he doesn't have options.
- Speaking of TK, as we discussed on the podcast, he would have been a real asset in OT. The one thing he never lacks is energy. There's potential for a great match-up against a tired team in OT.
- We've reached the point in the season where we're asking for more Tyler Kennedy. In other news, the Pens are about to get swept.
- Lineup changes for Game 4. Niskanen can't play with Letang. Have to keep Cooke with Geno and Neal. Bennett should stay and get PP time. BB is one definite bright spot heading into next season.
- The Pens scored 10 goals in Game 4 against Philly last year. The Pens also scored 12 in games 1-3. The Pens have 2 goals in 11 periods this series.
- The series isn't over so we're not in the mood to make pronouncements about the off-season. Except for one. Marc-Andre Fleury has got to go. This shouldn't be hard decision, and in light of the decisiveness of Shero's handling of Jordan Staal last year, we expect it will happen quickly. It doesn't matter who else is available. Fleury is not a winning option going forward.
- The way he's played this season, the Pens should feel very fortunate that Vokoun is signed through next season. He can't play 65 games. But the games he plays, he usually plays well.
- For as much talent as Letang has, and as high as his ceiling is, the Pens haven't really accomplished anything with him since he's been the team's best defenseman. Yet he's so gifted that you have to start wondering if a different coach could get him to play the right way more often. Whether here or elsewhere.
Wednesday, June 5, 2013
Podcast: Pens fall, 2-1, in heartbreaking loss
Pens fall 2-1 in double OT. A heartbreaker. Pushed to the brink of elimination.
[Spreaker is a little slow today for some reason, so it may take a minute to download]
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**
[Spreaker is a little slow today for some reason, so it may take a minute to download]
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**
 |
| Story of our lives right now. |
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
So, the Pens got destroyed by Boston last night. Now what?
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
Listen to the podcast below or click here. And click here to subscribe on iTunes.
Last night the Pens were a nerdy 7th grader who got tied to a fence and de-pantsed by the cool kids at the beginning of recess, then had to stand there for the next 40 minutes while everyone laughed and pointed. There was no facet of the game in which the Pens played well, no redeeming performance by any individual players, and almost nothing to give you confidence the Pens can win a game in this series, let alone the series itself. All credit to the Bruins, whose stars dominated the Pens' stars, whose grinders dominated the Pens' grinders, and whose coaching staff is making Dan Bylsma look completely out of his league.
More after the jump...
The good news is that it was only game 2. At least we hope that's the good news. The Pens have shown a tendency to lose ugly this year (10 of their 12 losses were by 2 goals or more), and though it is surprising to have been so thoroughly dominated through much of two games, it would be completely unsurprising if the Pens won game 3 in Boston, even by a large margin. What the Pens haven't done this series is get a lead on Boston and force the Bruins to adapt. The Bruins have been able to do everything that they're really good at with very little resistance from the Pens; unless the Pens can dictate the terms of the game, even a little bit, the Bruins will win this series and will probably do it easily.
This isn't to say that the Pens need to go all crazy before game 3 and try to change everything. In fact, it's quite the opposite. The Pens need to figure out what will make them successful again -- making simple plays defensively, possessing the puck for long enough to allow creativity to take over -- and then do it. And then keep doing it even if the Bruins are making it hard. And if the Bruins are still making it hard, then you know what the Pens should do? Keep doing it.
This is all much easier said that done, mainly because of how good Boston has been. But an almost equal reason for pessimism has to do with the Penguins' own mentality. Every quote after these losses is the same: "We got away from our game." Well, why? Why does a team that can be so good play so badly sometimes? Why does Kris Letang look like a first ballot hall-of-famer some nights and a total scrub on other nights? Why do Crosby and Malkin, now in their mid to late-twenties, still get so flustered when things aren't coming easily for them? Why do the Pens either look like the best offensive team since the 80s or outclassed brats playing soccer with the puck because they can't connect on a pass?
The most vexing part of this team is that you have no idea what the expect from one night to the next. Game 3 in Boston could be exactly like game 3 in Philly last year where the Pens started running people and acting like babies when things weren't going their way. Or the Pens could have a 4-goals-in-5-minutes spurt and win 6-2. Or they could play a tight-checking and disciplined 2-1 game. (That last one seems highly unlikely, but with this team, who knows).
As hard as it is to predict how the players will play, it can be equally hard to discern what the coaching staff is doing. There's a balance between being reactive and being proactive, and Bylsma (and Shero) have failed miserably at striking that balance. It's been 12 hours since the puck dropped and I still haven't come up with one good reason (other than possible injuries) why Derek Engelland dressed. It's not that Engelland was any worse last night than anyone else, or even worse than Eaton would have been, but what was this move trying to accomplish? Get grittier? Tougher? Why? It's not like the Bruins' won game 1 by physically dominating the Pens -- they won game 1 because they weathered the storm and then smartly and skillfully took advantage when the Pens started chasing the game. This move was reactionary, which on its face is disappointing from a team that went 36-12. Even worse, it was reactionary to a non-existent problem. Bylsma was reacting to a myth about this Bruins team -- that they're the "big, bad Bruins" -- when it's the Bruins skill and positioning that has been the major problem.
Scratching Kennedy was equally, if not more, confusing. Yeah, Boston had won a lot of face-offs in game 1, but that "problem" didn't really tilt game 1 that much in favor of Boston -- the Pens were only outshot by 1 and the so-called "advanced stats" (which involve counting, then adding) were fairly even given this allegedly crippling discrepancy. The problem in game 1 was that the Pens couldn't finish. So Byslma's solution was to sit the best scorer and puck possession guy the Pens have in their bottom 6 for a guy who may be able to win the face-off ... but to what end? Vitale wins the offensive zone draw to Niskanen, who shoots it into the corner ... who is getting it and then doing anything with it? Brenden Morrow? An overreaction to a real, but hardly fatal, problem.
Both of these moves were marginal in the sense that they didn't in any way cost the Pens this game. The Pens are a unique team. No one plays like the Pens, but the Pens don't -- and can't -- play like anyone else. So why try? Why let the Bruins dictate your lineup? At home, no less. Coupled with his inability to extract any consistency from his best players, Dan Bylsma has as much to answer for as anyone.
One thing that Bylsma can and should answer immediately is the goaltending question, although there really shouldn't be a question. Vokoun has to be the starter. Neither goalie was responsible for this loss, but to anyone who has watched Fleury over the course of his career, it's obvious that this guy is gone mentally. We saw the goal from Marchand almost immediately after the Sutter goal. We don't need to see more. He's so horrible right now that you could easily make the case that he shouldn't even dress as the backup. Fleury looked like he wanted to cry ... when the Pens put him IN the game.
The series is not lost, though when the Pens finally get it together it may be too late to salvage given how well the Bruins are playing. It certainly looks bleak heading back to Boston down 2-0. If the Pens were a normal team, you could look at the results from the first two games and figure that Boston is simply a better team and the Pens would be lucky to win a game. That very well might be the case. But the Pens aren't a normal team. So, really, who the fuck knows what's going to happen?
Listen to the podcast below or click here. And click here to subscribe on iTunes.
Last night the Pens were a nerdy 7th grader who got tied to a fence and de-pantsed by the cool kids at the beginning of recess, then had to stand there for the next 40 minutes while everyone laughed and pointed. There was no facet of the game in which the Pens played well, no redeeming performance by any individual players, and almost nothing to give you confidence the Pens can win a game in this series, let alone the series itself. All credit to the Bruins, whose stars dominated the Pens' stars, whose grinders dominated the Pens' grinders, and whose coaching staff is making Dan Bylsma look completely out of his league.
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| You're doing it wrong. |
The good news is that it was only game 2. At least we hope that's the good news. The Pens have shown a tendency to lose ugly this year (10 of their 12 losses were by 2 goals or more), and though it is surprising to have been so thoroughly dominated through much of two games, it would be completely unsurprising if the Pens won game 3 in Boston, even by a large margin. What the Pens haven't done this series is get a lead on Boston and force the Bruins to adapt. The Bruins have been able to do everything that they're really good at with very little resistance from the Pens; unless the Pens can dictate the terms of the game, even a little bit, the Bruins will win this series and will probably do it easily.
This isn't to say that the Pens need to go all crazy before game 3 and try to change everything. In fact, it's quite the opposite. The Pens need to figure out what will make them successful again -- making simple plays defensively, possessing the puck for long enough to allow creativity to take over -- and then do it. And then keep doing it even if the Bruins are making it hard. And if the Bruins are still making it hard, then you know what the Pens should do? Keep doing it.
This is all much easier said that done, mainly because of how good Boston has been. But an almost equal reason for pessimism has to do with the Penguins' own mentality. Every quote after these losses is the same: "We got away from our game." Well, why? Why does a team that can be so good play so badly sometimes? Why does Kris Letang look like a first ballot hall-of-famer some nights and a total scrub on other nights? Why do Crosby and Malkin, now in their mid to late-twenties, still get so flustered when things aren't coming easily for them? Why do the Pens either look like the best offensive team since the 80s or outclassed brats playing soccer with the puck because they can't connect on a pass?
The most vexing part of this team is that you have no idea what the expect from one night to the next. Game 3 in Boston could be exactly like game 3 in Philly last year where the Pens started running people and acting like babies when things weren't going their way. Or the Pens could have a 4-goals-in-5-minutes spurt and win 6-2. Or they could play a tight-checking and disciplined 2-1 game. (That last one seems highly unlikely, but with this team, who knows).
As hard as it is to predict how the players will play, it can be equally hard to discern what the coaching staff is doing. There's a balance between being reactive and being proactive, and Bylsma (and Shero) have failed miserably at striking that balance. It's been 12 hours since the puck dropped and I still haven't come up with one good reason (other than possible injuries) why Derek Engelland dressed. It's not that Engelland was any worse last night than anyone else, or even worse than Eaton would have been, but what was this move trying to accomplish? Get grittier? Tougher? Why? It's not like the Bruins' won game 1 by physically dominating the Pens -- they won game 1 because they weathered the storm and then smartly and skillfully took advantage when the Pens started chasing the game. This move was reactionary, which on its face is disappointing from a team that went 36-12. Even worse, it was reactionary to a non-existent problem. Bylsma was reacting to a myth about this Bruins team -- that they're the "big, bad Bruins" -- when it's the Bruins skill and positioning that has been the major problem.
Scratching Kennedy was equally, if not more, confusing. Yeah, Boston had won a lot of face-offs in game 1, but that "problem" didn't really tilt game 1 that much in favor of Boston -- the Pens were only outshot by 1 and the so-called "advanced stats" (which involve counting, then adding) were fairly even given this allegedly crippling discrepancy. The problem in game 1 was that the Pens couldn't finish. So Byslma's solution was to sit the best scorer and puck possession guy the Pens have in their bottom 6 for a guy who may be able to win the face-off ... but to what end? Vitale wins the offensive zone draw to Niskanen, who shoots it into the corner ... who is getting it and then doing anything with it? Brenden Morrow? An overreaction to a real, but hardly fatal, problem.
Both of these moves were marginal in the sense that they didn't in any way cost the Pens this game. The Pens are a unique team. No one plays like the Pens, but the Pens don't -- and can't -- play like anyone else. So why try? Why let the Bruins dictate your lineup? At home, no less. Coupled with his inability to extract any consistency from his best players, Dan Bylsma has as much to answer for as anyone.
One thing that Bylsma can and should answer immediately is the goaltending question, although there really shouldn't be a question. Vokoun has to be the starter. Neither goalie was responsible for this loss, but to anyone who has watched Fleury over the course of his career, it's obvious that this guy is gone mentally. We saw the goal from Marchand almost immediately after the Sutter goal. We don't need to see more. He's so horrible right now that you could easily make the case that he shouldn't even dress as the backup. Fleury looked like he wanted to cry ... when the Pens put him IN the game.
The series is not lost, though when the Pens finally get it together it may be too late to salvage given how well the Bruins are playing. It certainly looks bleak heading back to Boston down 2-0. If the Pens were a normal team, you could look at the results from the first two games and figure that Boston is simply a better team and the Pens would be lucky to win a game. That very well might be the case. But the Pens aren't a normal team. So, really, who the fuck knows what's going to happen?
Monday, June 3, 2013
Podcast: Pens dominated by Bruins in Game 2, 6-1
Well that was terrible. The Pens were completely dominated by a terrific game from Boston and then compounded it with an all-time stink-bomb. We chronicle it all, LIVE on the GTOG Podcast, after the final whistle.
Listen below or click here.
Listen below or click here.
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| The Prime Minister's face. |
Sunday, June 2, 2013
5 thoughts on the Pens' game 1 loss to Boston, including a new team motto
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
A few leftover thoughts about last night's 3-0 loss to Boston. But first, check out the podcast.
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
5. The Showdown
The Crosby/Chara and Malkin/Bergeron showdowns at the end of the second period are getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so. It's too soon to tell whether this was a good or a bad thing, but there's a lot not to like about it.
It's admirable in a lot of ways that Crosby and Malkin are willing to mix it up more than most superstars are, but it's also not that smart for them to do it for the simple fact that when they fight or jaw at people, they aren't better at it than anyone else. They make themselves ordinary. Rather than staying on a higher plane than other players because of their superior talent, they can be brought down to the level of their competition. Give the Bruins credit for getting Sid and Geno to do it.
The other potential problem with their "standing up for themselves" response is that it's not very logical. Whatever Boston did to get Crosby and Malkin that upset (and maybe it was simply frustration with not scoring), does anyone think that Boston is going to stop messing with 87 and 71 because they fight back? Does anyone really think any of the Bruins are going to be afraid of getting their asses kicked by Crosby and Malkin? If Crosby and Malkin are reacting like that, then it means that they're at least somewhat rattled emotionally and obviously Boston will try to keep doing that if that's the response they can get from those two guys. Boston is only going to stop with that stuff when the scoreboard dictates that they have to stop.
New motto: Ignore and Score.
Four more thoughts after the jump...
4. The bottom 6 has become necessary
As we discussed on our podcast, the Pens are going to need contributions from the bottom 6 to win this series. Our initial thought was that scoring from the bottom 6 would be sufficient to beat Boston, but not necessary. After game 1, it looks more necessary than ever. Boston is going to load up, as they should, to stop the Pens' top 6, and they're good enough that they might be able to. If the bottom 6 doesn't contribute offensively, the Pens could easily lose this series. It's not enough that the bottom 6 wasn't on the ice for any of Boston's goals. They need to be on the ice for Pittsburgh's goals.
Some numbers so far in the playoffs:
Good: Kennedy (5 points in 8 games)
OK: Morrow (4 points in 11 games)
We're seeing some things, but need to see more: Cooke (3 points in 12 games); Jokinen (3 points in 7 games)
We know not to expect much, but it would be nice every once in a while: Adams (1 point in 12 games); Glass (1 point in 5 games); Vitale (1 point in 4 games); Bennett (1 point in 4 games)
Really disappointing: Sutter (2 points in 12 games)
You don't win Stanley Cups with passengers.
3. Hit the net
As Dejan Kovacevic pointed out in his column this morning, the Pens need to focus on hitting the net, not necessarily picking corners. The Pens got a lot of good looks, especially early, but channeled their inner-Alex Semin and airmailed them way over the net. When the Pens missed the net off the rush, these misses started Boston's breakouts at least a handful of times in the first period. And even though we're pretty close to being done worrying about the PP combinations, because all of the combinations are good, the emphasis needs to be on more traffic. Doesn't matter who.
2. Easy on the pinching
Letang wasn't at his worst, but also wasn't at his best. He seemed dedicated to pinching on almost every opportunity last night -- great if it works, nightmare when it doesn't. Boston isn't Ottawa -- not only can they get the puck past Letang when he pinches, they can score when they do. This certainly didn't cost the Pens the game, but it's something to watch going forward.
1. Video review on 5-minute majors
Refereeing is our least favorite topic. The Pens didn't lose the game last night because of officials -- the Pens PK was perfect, and they had 4 power-plays. No complaints on that front.
But the 5-minute major on Cooke was ridiculous. It's such a difficult call for the refs to make at full speed, and it's such an impactful decision to give a guy 5 and a game, why not let this be subject to video review? I hate anything that slows the game down, but if the ref believes in his decision to give 5 and a game, let's take away the excuse that things happen quickly. Make him look at it again, and then decide. If he makes the wrong decision after video review, then the league should discipline him. Or just let the league review it.
Bottom line: No panic heading into Game 2. The Pens know what they have to do to win, they just have to do it. And not stop doing it if it isn't working right away.
A few leftover thoughts about last night's 3-0 loss to Boston. But first, check out the podcast.
Listen below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.
5. The Showdown
The Crosby/Chara and Malkin/Bergeron showdowns at the end of the second period are getting a lot of attention, and rightfully so. It's too soon to tell whether this was a good or a bad thing, but there's a lot not to like about it.
 |
| Very little good can come from this. |
The other potential problem with their "standing up for themselves" response is that it's not very logical. Whatever Boston did to get Crosby and Malkin that upset (and maybe it was simply frustration with not scoring), does anyone think that Boston is going to stop messing with 87 and 71 because they fight back? Does anyone really think any of the Bruins are going to be afraid of getting their asses kicked by Crosby and Malkin? If Crosby and Malkin are reacting like that, then it means that they're at least somewhat rattled emotionally and obviously Boston will try to keep doing that if that's the response they can get from those two guys. Boston is only going to stop with that stuff when the scoreboard dictates that they have to stop.
New motto: Ignore and Score.
Four more thoughts after the jump...
4. The bottom 6 has become necessary
As we discussed on our podcast, the Pens are going to need contributions from the bottom 6 to win this series. Our initial thought was that scoring from the bottom 6 would be sufficient to beat Boston, but not necessary. After game 1, it looks more necessary than ever. Boston is going to load up, as they should, to stop the Pens' top 6, and they're good enough that they might be able to. If the bottom 6 doesn't contribute offensively, the Pens could easily lose this series. It's not enough that the bottom 6 wasn't on the ice for any of Boston's goals. They need to be on the ice for Pittsburgh's goals.
Some numbers so far in the playoffs:
Good: Kennedy (5 points in 8 games)
OK: Morrow (4 points in 11 games)
We're seeing some things, but need to see more: Cooke (3 points in 12 games); Jokinen (3 points in 7 games)
We know not to expect much, but it would be nice every once in a while: Adams (1 point in 12 games); Glass (1 point in 5 games); Vitale (1 point in 4 games); Bennett (1 point in 4 games)
Really disappointing: Sutter (2 points in 12 games)
 |
| There are 132 action shots from game 1 on the Pens' website. Brandon Sutter is in 1 of them. |
3. Hit the net
As Dejan Kovacevic pointed out in his column this morning, the Pens need to focus on hitting the net, not necessarily picking corners. The Pens got a lot of good looks, especially early, but channeled their inner-Alex Semin and airmailed them way over the net. When the Pens missed the net off the rush, these misses started Boston's breakouts at least a handful of times in the first period. And even though we're pretty close to being done worrying about the PP combinations, because all of the combinations are good, the emphasis needs to be on more traffic. Doesn't matter who.
2. Easy on the pinching
Letang wasn't at his worst, but also wasn't at his best. He seemed dedicated to pinching on almost every opportunity last night -- great if it works, nightmare when it doesn't. Boston isn't Ottawa -- not only can they get the puck past Letang when he pinches, they can score when they do. This certainly didn't cost the Pens the game, but it's something to watch going forward.
 |
| Textbook? |
Refereeing is our least favorite topic. The Pens didn't lose the game last night because of officials -- the Pens PK was perfect, and they had 4 power-plays. No complaints on that front.
But the 5-minute major on Cooke was ridiculous. It's such a difficult call for the refs to make at full speed, and it's such an impactful decision to give a guy 5 and a game, why not let this be subject to video review? I hate anything that slows the game down, but if the ref believes in his decision to give 5 and a game, let's take away the excuse that things happen quickly. Make him look at it again, and then decide. If he makes the wrong decision after video review, then the league should discipline him. Or just let the league review it.
Bottom line: No panic heading into Game 2. The Pens know what they have to do to win, they just have to do it. And not stop doing it if it isn't working right away.
Friday, May 31, 2013
Penguins vs. Bruins: Tale of the Tape
By GTOG Staff
[You can find the preview podcast here]
It's Eastern Conference Finals Eve, Boston vs. Pittsburgh, when thoughts of Mario Lemieux torturing Ray Bourque swirl in our heads, somewhere Andy Moog is waking up in a cold sweat, and the Tale of the Tape between these two titans becomes urgent and required reading. Our thoughts and prayers are with Ulf Samuelsson's right thigh, which is to this day still traumatized by Cam Neely's carelessness. And we wish Vladimir Ruzicka the best in his quest to forget everything that happened after his 5-point performance in Game 2 in 1991. Let's break this down.
Obstacle Overcomability
This is always our most important category, because it defines the NHL playoffs. If you can play, you can play, but if you can't overcome adversity, you can't win. The Bruins had that historic comeback against the Leafs when they were down three goals in the third period of Game 7, and down two goals with 1:22 left in regulation. Amazing, unprecedented stuff from the Bruins. But you know what else is amazing? The fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs took a 4-1 lead in Game 7 against Boston in Boston. You don't give Bill Clinton credit for still being married to Hillary because no one gets obstacle overcomeability points for overcoming themselves.
The Penguins saw Marc-Andre Fleury - arguably their most important piece of the playoff puzzle heading into round 1 - melt down against the Islanders. They're still meshing as team and figuring out who belongs in the lineup. Their captain and best player is only now setting aside a face shield that - believe it or not - limited his effectiveness. They face enormous external pressure to win and win going away. And all the Penguins are doing is getting better.
EDGE: Pens.
Read on for the rest of the categories ...
Emergeability
The bad news for the Pens is that this is one Tale of the Tape category that they can never win, at least as currently constituted. Unless like 8 guys get hurt, we're not seeing anyone play whose ceiling we don't already know, or at least have a pretty good idea.
Torey Krug redefined emergeability in the Bruins' series, scoring 4 goals in 5 games. But it may not even be the right kind of emergeability. Claude Giroux showed great emergeability in 2008-09 against the Pens, then blew the doors off emergeability in '09-'10 when the Flyers went to the Cup. That was the right kind of emergeability -- he emerged into a much better player than anyone thought he was. What Krug did was so unexpected that it raises the question: was this emergeability or flashinthepanability? Regardless, the Bruins may use three rookie defensemen at any point in this series. Pretty sure everyone on the Pens has been in the league for a dozen years.
EDGE: Bruins.
Coiffability
Hair is about appearance, but it's also about trust. And if you can't trust your captain's hair, how can you trust your captain?
Here's Bruins' captain Zdeno Chara winning the Stanley Cup.
He looks like any other 6'9" man struggling with hair loss, probably figuring that no one will see the top of his head. But here he is at the parade a few days later.
Are we really supposed to believe that it's natural for a 30+ year-old-man to magically patch-up his male pattern baldness in a few days? Get real.
Zdeno made a deal with the devil to win that Cup. Now the debt has come due.
EDGE: Pens.
Sex Appealability
Time to check in with the Women of GTOG for their thoughts on this always crucial factor.
Mrs. Artistry: Edge, Penguins.
Artistry's Mom: Edge, Penguins.
EDGE: Pens.
Legacyability
This is a forward looking category -- think 10 or 15 years in the future and ask yourself whose legacy is more positively or negatively impacted by winning or losing this series.
In the upside department, the Pens have more to gain, if only because they have two players who will be far more memorable than anyone on the Bruins. If the Pens go on to win the Cup, Crosby and Malkin each get a second Cup and become, without any further question, the two defining players of the salary cap era, which would instantly come to be known as the Sid and Geno Era. And because of their popularity and excellence, the Penguins become the defining post-lockout team. Fair or not, that's how life works. If Boston wins, then they can make a better argument for having the best team post-lockout, though there will still be plenty of other teams making a case in what would be an ongoing debate. From an individual perspective, outside of Chara, the Bruins aren't really defined as individuals -- if they win the Cup, they'll basically have 6 or 7 guys who will be remembered like Patrick Elias is remembered. (I mean that as a compliment).
If the Pens lose, it won't put any sort of choker label on them, but it will be devastating. A total wasted opportunity. And if the Bruins lose, does their 2011 Stanley Cup deserve an asterisk because they didn't have to go through Crosby and Malkin to get there?
All of this is a long way of saying that it will be awesome if the Pens win so that we can make fun of the Bruins' Cup in 2011.
EDGE: Pens.
Spurnability
We've made our thoughts on Jaromir Jagr clear this week, but to summarize: we're basically out of thoughts on Jagr. It is the classic it-is-what-it-is situation. He didn't want to play for the Pens last year. We're over it.
Iginla's spurning of Boston is much fresher, though unlike Jagr and unlike Marian Hossa in 2008, the Bruins never really had Iginla. They wanted him; he wanted someone else. There's a big difference between your rival stealing away a girl you just met at the bar and stealing away your girlfriend.
Nevertheless, this will be made into a story all while being downplayed by the Bruins' players. If Boston loses the series, they will continue to downplay it. But if they win? Boy, did we show him!
EDGE: Bruins.
Annoyability
The Islanders were annoying in the way that it's annoying to play pickup basketball against a guy who hustles and sets a lot of screens. He's not doing anything wrong, but who wants the hassle? The only annoying thing the Senators did was make you feel guilty for beating them so badly.
The Bruins are a whole different animal in this department. Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic are this year's Wayne Simmonds and Scott Hartnell -- you want to laugh at them like you do to a Chris Neil, but they're actually good players. Nathan Horton's face when he scores is Cammalleri-esque. Gregory Campbell's dad works for the NHL -- not his fault, but also not our fault for hating him. Pierre McGuire will verbally fellate Patricie Bergeron the first time he makes a good defensive play on Crosby. Tyler Seguin has 1 goal in 12 games, so he will probably score a hat trick Game 1, and then you'll read stories about him being part of the Phil Kessel trade and then you'll be like, "I'm already disgusted and now I'm being forced to read about Phil Kessel?" David Krejci is going to make some sick pass that embarrasses Matt Niskanen, and then McGuire will scream, "KREJCI'S IN HIS HEAD, DOC! DAVY KREJCI IS IN MATTY NISKANEN'S HEAD, DOC!" Jaromir Jagr will make a diving motion at Crosby while we furiously Google "Paul Pierce wheelchair." And you know at least one of their rookie defensemen is going to goad Evgeni Malkin into a bad penalty.
The Pens have their share of annoying tendencies, but there's a huge difference between the two teams. The Bruins can win by getting under your skin. The Pens can get under your skin by winning.
EDGE: Bruins.
Stalwartability
Dejan Kovacevic wrote about the Letang-Chara "match-up" the other day and figured that whoever outplayed the other one would win the series. But in reality, it's not quite that simple. Letang doesn't need to outperform Chara -- he needs to prove that he can do for the Pens what Chara can do for Boston. As great of a player as Letang is and can be, he hasn't anchored a defense to a Stanley Cup the way Chara did for Boston in 2011. When the Pens won the Cup in 2009, Letang averaged 19:18 of ice time per game in the playoffs, the fifth most among Pens' defensemen, and finished with a +1 rating. When the Bruins won the Cup in 2011, Chara averaged 27:39 per game and was a +16.
This isn't to say that Letang can't do it, just that he hasn't. Yet. So far this post-season, Letang is averaing 27 minutes per game and could realistically end up leading the playoffs in scoring by the time it's over. He's been that good. But it also isn't getting any easier.
Chara isn't a target for Letang to beat. He's a measuring stick.
EDGE: Bruins.
Leadability
I like to look at life as a fraternity. Right now the fraternity is me, Tom, Drew, Aar, Joe, Eli, and Pey. I see a lot of that fraternity within these teams. You got Sid, who I'm close with, I feel comfortable just saying to him, 'hey, you know, Sid, if you ever need to shoot some ideas around or pick my brain, me and Ash will have you over any time.' Geno, too. Now they bring in Brend' and 'Rome. Boston is full of great leaders, too. It started with John. Then you had John Quincy. Bill. Larry. Now Tom. I look at their team and I see Looch and March and Kre and 'Deno and it looks a lot like a brotherhood to me. So I just keep doing what I'm doing, controlling what I'm controlling, whether it's going 8-8 with the dink-n-dunk or winning 2 Super Bowls with me throwing deep to 'Twan, 'Tone, and 'Tonio. You know, whatever the team needs. And I see a lot of myself in Sid. This one's for 'Rome.
EDGE: Pens.
Intangibility
This category is less about the more commonly discussed intangibles like leadership, toughness, want-to, really-want-do, sorta-want-to, and definitely-want-to than it is about the ultimate intangible -- whether the invisible hand of destiny will decide to intervene. The Pens don't really have anything in this department; for Boston, the question is whether the whole Boston Strong movement in the wake of the marathon bombings is going to be an emotional factor in this series. It's hard to imagine that it's still going to be, given the amount of tributes, anthems, Sweet Carolines, and all of the other sports-related ceremonies and memorials that have been done already and, of course, the fact that the Pens have already played there in the immediate aftermath (and won). If anything, the emotional toll and the toll on convenience from the manhunt was a negative for Boston: they closed the regular season by going 2-5 and then nearly (and probably should have) lost to Toronto. Now things have returned to normal and the Bruins are rested. That's a scarier thought than destiny intervening.
EDGE: Bruins
FINAL SCORE: 5-5
Predictions
Boston can and might win this series. They are a really good team without a lot of weaknesses the Pens can exploit. But if the Pens are who we all think they are, the Pens will win this series. An eight day break leaves a lot of time for breaking down specific match-ups, but it all comes back to the most basic match-up: who has better players? Unless something weird starts happening, the Pens don't have any glaring weaknesses that Boston can exploit to overcome the simple fact that the Pens have more better players. Not much better. But better.
Pens in 6.
[You can find the preview podcast here]
It's Eastern Conference Finals Eve, Boston vs. Pittsburgh, when thoughts of Mario Lemieux torturing Ray Bourque swirl in our heads, somewhere Andy Moog is waking up in a cold sweat, and the Tale of the Tape between these two titans becomes urgent and required reading. Our thoughts and prayers are with Ulf Samuelsson's right thigh, which is to this day still traumatized by Cam Neely's carelessness. And we wish Vladimir Ruzicka the best in his quest to forget everything that happened after his 5-point performance in Game 2 in 1991. Let's break this down.
Obstacle Overcomability
This is always our most important category, because it defines the NHL playoffs. If you can play, you can play, but if you can't overcome adversity, you can't win. The Bruins had that historic comeback against the Leafs when they were down three goals in the third period of Game 7, and down two goals with 1:22 left in regulation. Amazing, unprecedented stuff from the Bruins. But you know what else is amazing? The fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs took a 4-1 lead in Game 7 against Boston in Boston. You don't give Bill Clinton credit for still being married to Hillary because no one gets obstacle overcomeability points for overcoming themselves.
The Penguins saw Marc-Andre Fleury - arguably their most important piece of the playoff puzzle heading into round 1 - melt down against the Islanders. They're still meshing as team and figuring out who belongs in the lineup. Their captain and best player is only now setting aside a face shield that - believe it or not - limited his effectiveness. They face enormous external pressure to win and win going away. And all the Penguins are doing is getting better.
EDGE: Pens.
Read on for the rest of the categories ...
Emergeability
The bad news for the Pens is that this is one Tale of the Tape category that they can never win, at least as currently constituted. Unless like 8 guys get hurt, we're not seeing anyone play whose ceiling we don't already know, or at least have a pretty good idea.
 |
| "Brian Dumoulin is not walking through that door!" |
EDGE: Bruins.
Coiffability
Hair is about appearance, but it's also about trust. And if you can't trust your captain's hair, how can you trust your captain?
Here's Bruins' captain Zdeno Chara winning the Stanley Cup.
He looks like any other 6'9" man struggling with hair loss, probably figuring that no one will see the top of his head. But here he is at the parade a few days later.
Are we really supposed to believe that it's natural for a 30+ year-old-man to magically patch-up his male pattern baldness in a few days? Get real.
Zdeno made a deal with the devil to win that Cup. Now the debt has come due.
EDGE: Pens.
Sex Appealability
Time to check in with the Women of GTOG for their thoughts on this always crucial factor.
Mrs. Artistry: Edge, Penguins.
Artistry's Mom: Edge, Penguins.
EDGE: Pens.
Legacyability
This is a forward looking category -- think 10 or 15 years in the future and ask yourself whose legacy is more positively or negatively impacted by winning or losing this series.
In the upside department, the Pens have more to gain, if only because they have two players who will be far more memorable than anyone on the Bruins. If the Pens go on to win the Cup, Crosby and Malkin each get a second Cup and become, without any further question, the two defining players of the salary cap era, which would instantly come to be known as the Sid and Geno Era. And because of their popularity and excellence, the Penguins become the defining post-lockout team. Fair or not, that's how life works. If Boston wins, then they can make a better argument for having the best team post-lockout, though there will still be plenty of other teams making a case in what would be an ongoing debate. From an individual perspective, outside of Chara, the Bruins aren't really defined as individuals -- if they win the Cup, they'll basically have 6 or 7 guys who will be remembered like Patrick Elias is remembered. (I mean that as a compliment).
 |
| Such a memorable face. |
All of this is a long way of saying that it will be awesome if the Pens win so that we can make fun of the Bruins' Cup in 2011.
EDGE: Pens.
Spurnability
We've made our thoughts on Jaromir Jagr clear this week, but to summarize: we're basically out of thoughts on Jagr. It is the classic it-is-what-it-is situation. He didn't want to play for the Pens last year. We're over it.
 |
| "I ain't over it." |
Nevertheless, this will be made into a story all while being downplayed by the Bruins' players. If Boston loses the series, they will continue to downplay it. But if they win? Boy, did we show him!
EDGE: Bruins.
Annoyability
The Islanders were annoying in the way that it's annoying to play pickup basketball against a guy who hustles and sets a lot of screens. He's not doing anything wrong, but who wants the hassle? The only annoying thing the Senators did was make you feel guilty for beating them so badly.
The Bruins are a whole different animal in this department. Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic are this year's Wayne Simmonds and Scott Hartnell -- you want to laugh at them like you do to a Chris Neil, but they're actually good players. Nathan Horton's face when he scores is Cammalleri-esque. Gregory Campbell's dad works for the NHL -- not his fault, but also not our fault for hating him. Pierre McGuire will verbally fellate Patricie Bergeron the first time he makes a good defensive play on Crosby. Tyler Seguin has 1 goal in 12 games, so he will probably score a hat trick Game 1, and then you'll read stories about him being part of the Phil Kessel trade and then you'll be like, "I'm already disgusted and now I'm being forced to read about Phil Kessel?" David Krejci is going to make some sick pass that embarrasses Matt Niskanen, and then McGuire will scream, "KREJCI'S IN HIS HEAD, DOC! DAVY KREJCI IS IN MATTY NISKANEN'S HEAD, DOC!" Jaromir Jagr will make a diving motion at Crosby while we furiously Google "Paul Pierce wheelchair." And you know at least one of their rookie defensemen is going to goad Evgeni Malkin into a bad penalty.
 |
| You will see this face. Just be ready for it. |
EDGE: Bruins.
Stalwartability
Dejan Kovacevic wrote about the Letang-Chara "match-up" the other day and figured that whoever outplayed the other one would win the series. But in reality, it's not quite that simple. Letang doesn't need to outperform Chara -- he needs to prove that he can do for the Pens what Chara can do for Boston. As great of a player as Letang is and can be, he hasn't anchored a defense to a Stanley Cup the way Chara did for Boston in 2011. When the Pens won the Cup in 2009, Letang averaged 19:18 of ice time per game in the playoffs, the fifth most among Pens' defensemen, and finished with a +1 rating. When the Bruins won the Cup in 2011, Chara averaged 27:39 per game and was a +16.
This isn't to say that Letang can't do it, just that he hasn't. Yet. So far this post-season, Letang is averaing 27 minutes per game and could realistically end up leading the playoffs in scoring by the time it's over. He's been that good. But it also isn't getting any easier.
Chara isn't a target for Letang to beat. He's a measuring stick.
EDGE: Bruins.
Leadability
 |
| "I'll take this one, guys." |
EDGE: Pens.
Intangibility
This category is less about the more commonly discussed intangibles like leadership, toughness, want-to, really-want-do, sorta-want-to, and definitely-want-to than it is about the ultimate intangible -- whether the invisible hand of destiny will decide to intervene. The Pens don't really have anything in this department; for Boston, the question is whether the whole Boston Strong movement in the wake of the marathon bombings is going to be an emotional factor in this series. It's hard to imagine that it's still going to be, given the amount of tributes, anthems, Sweet Carolines, and all of the other sports-related ceremonies and memorials that have been done already and, of course, the fact that the Pens have already played there in the immediate aftermath (and won). If anything, the emotional toll and the toll on convenience from the manhunt was a negative for Boston: they closed the regular season by going 2-5 and then nearly (and probably should have) lost to Toronto. Now things have returned to normal and the Bruins are rested. That's a scarier thought than destiny intervening.
EDGE: Bruins
FINAL SCORE: 5-5
Predictions
Boston can and might win this series. They are a really good team without a lot of weaknesses the Pens can exploit. But if the Pens are who we all think they are, the Pens will win this series. An eight day break leaves a lot of time for breaking down specific match-ups, but it all comes back to the most basic match-up: who has better players? Unless something weird starts happening, the Pens don't have any glaring weaknesses that Boston can exploit to overcome the simple fact that the Pens have more better players. Not much better. But better.
Pens in 6.
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