Showing posts with label Fleury. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fleury. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Podcast: Mike Colligan joins us to discuss the Pens' offseason

Mike Colligan of The Hockey Writers joins the podcast for an in-depth discussion of the Pens' offseason.  We touch on everything -- the Boston series, Rob Scuderi, Matt D'Agostini, Dan Bylsma, Letang/Kunitz/Dupuis/Adams signings, Fleury, and what moves are still left to make.  Plus so much else.  We even debate whether Rob Scuderi got burned by Ovechkin four years ago.  It's a can't miss GTOG Podcast.

You can listen below or on our Spreaker page.  If you want to take the podcast mobile, either click here to subscribe on iTunes, or download the Spreaker app for iPhone or Android.


Sunday, July 7, 2013

No Contract for Old Men: Scuderi, Dupuis, Kunitz and Adams

By Artistry

Ray Shero has had a brilliant July, so why does it smell like old people in here? Uh, that's easy. It's because the Penguins just handed a combined $40 million to the guys in the headline -- in deals that will keep them in Pittsburgh until they're 38, 37, 38, and 38, respectively. For now, those four join Brooks Orpik (33 in September), Paul Martin (32), Tomas Vokoun (37), Jussi Jokinen (30), and Tanner Glass (30 in November) as regulars in the 2013-14 lineup. No reason to panic about these numbers, but let's face it, sometimes people go from "old man strong" to "I've fallen, and I can't get up" in the blink of a swollen Deryk Engelland eye. Wait. What's that? Holy shit. I'm being told Deryk Engelland is already 31.

Craig Adams, Jr.
Here's the paradox of this off-season: you can't argue about any of Shero's moves if you look at them in isolation. But if you look at the roster as a whole and don't feel at least mildly uncomfortable, you haven't been paying attention. Why Shero isn't done, after the jump...

As a predicate, Shero is the best in the business at understanding the market and underpaying when virtually every other team is giving the Tyler Bozaks of the world $21,000,000. Or locking up an injury-prone Nathan Horton, who last scored as many as 30 goals 7 years ago by the way, for 7 more years at $37 million. Or buying out their last big mistake. Really, we could do a dissertation on why pretty much every deal this done summer was a bad one, but who has the time? Rob Scuderi is probably the only big-name UFA who didn't get massively overpaid. And yes, he is exactly what the Pens need on the back-end.

EXACTLY.
Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz? Both just signed for $1 million a year less than they could have gotten on the market. No question. Kunitz was first team all-NHL for God's sake, and he took a million a year less than Ryan Clowe got from New Jersey. Ryan Clowe scored three goals last season. THREE! OK, I know I said I wasn't going to get into this, but look:

- In Ryan Clowe's best season, he had 24 goals. Dupuis and Kunitz just scored 20 and 22, respectively, in 48 GAMES.

- Patrick Elias just signed an over-35-year-old-so-say-goodbye-to-this-money-forever 3 year, $5.5M a year contract after scoring 14 goals.

- Toronto decided to pay Dave Clarkson $5.25M a year every year until he's 36. His career high in points is 46. Over 80 games. Kunitz just scored 52 points in 48 games.

- Detroit just handed Daniel Alfredsson $5.5M, perhaps with the hope he can, what, double his 10-goal output from last season?

Do we see a pattern yet? The Dupuis and Kunitz deals were GREAT signings. Stellar signings. Inarguably.

"We're rich, hahahaha, rich! What? You mean Matt Cullen got $3.5M a year?"
You have a problem with re-signing Craig Adams for 2 years at $700K per? Fine. But you won't find better value. Adams is arguably the Pens' top penalty killer and was one of maybe two guys (Vokoun being the other) who actually played over his head in the Boston series. And he costs virtually nothing.

See? It's as easy as can be to make the case for all of these moves, but it doesn't change the fact that the Pens already tried and failed to win the Cup with an aging all-star team. It also does nothing to address the glaring holes in the bottom 6, where Matt Cooke, Brenden Morrow, Jarome Iginla, and Tyler Kennedy used to reside. Now we're looking at Jokinen, Glass, Vitale, Dustin Jeffrey, and Adams, with no legitimate depth beyond them. Anybody think Brandon Sutter is going to carry this group? Anyone? This is the first time I can recall that there is no realistic chance for any minor league forward prospect to make the team out of camp. Who's going to do it? You Dom Uher? You Tom Kuehnhackl?

Pretty dramatic, Tom Kuehnhackl.
There needs to be a youth infusion, and the bet here is it's still pending. Matt Niskanen is now a must-move, and Engelland, Jokinen, and Glass may have some (limited) trade value as well. With the Pens right up against the cap and with the aforementioned holes, it's worth exploring. And don't discount the possibility that there is some team out there drooling over Marc-Andre Fleury, who with a change of scenery could easily regain his 2008-2009 playoff form. He can fetch assets, even though the Penguins would be selling low, low, low. What the Pens need in return for some or all of these players are cheap, fast forwards, with room to grow. If Fleury goes, they'll need another goalie, too.

Over the next three months, when the free agent frenzy has long subsided, that's when Shero will really need to earn his GM-of-the-year title. This isn't over.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 1: The scene is set for a blockbuster, so let's throw out 5 crazy hypothetical trades. Day 1, Toronto

By GTOG Staff

In our acclaimed season recap podcast, we made the case that the Pens had to at least try to sign Kris Letang to an extension.  He is maddeningly frustrating, but can also be terrifyingly good.  He gives the Pens the best chance of winning the Cup next year and even if he eats up too much of the cap 3 or 4 years from now, he will still be a tradeable asset if/when the Pens develop another guy who can play 22+ minutes a night.  (Watch for the negotiations about whether Letang gets a no-trade clause.  He may really want one.  The Pens would be nuts to give it to him).

This is exactly what Shero should do to Letang's agent if he asks for a NTC
A fair price would be 8 years for $56 million with an average annual cap hit of $7 million.  Expensive, but you have to pay for quality.  Though there is uncertainly about how much the cap will rise after its initial drop next season, most are very bullish, meaning the contract could be easier to digest over time.

Is it affordable now? Answering that, and the first of five hypothetical Kris Letang trades, after the jump...
Re-signing Letang would only come at a significant, and perhaps prohibitive, cost to the rest of the roster. If the Pens extend Letang at $7 million/year, they'd have around $45 million tied up in 8 guys heading into the 2014-15 season (this assumes re-signing Dupuis at ~$4 million/year, though we think that's on the high side).  Simon Despres would be the Pens' highest profile RFA heading into that off-season.

For the sake of optimism, let's assume that the cap jumps back to what it is today ($70 million) entering '14-'15. The Pens would have approximately $25 million left over to pay 14 or 15 roster players, including Despres. That's about $1.6-$1.8 million per player, which means the Pens will either have a lot of league minimum guys or will round out the roster with a dozen Matt Cookes.  It's not terrible if you have a few guys under $1M, but it requires some guys to really outperform their salary, a kind way of saying that the coaching staff has to show some trust in the young guys and develop them.

Not the right strategy going forward.
What all this leads us to believe is not that the Pens must trade Letang, but that it's very difficult to imagine keeping both Fleury and Letang. Devoting $4-5 million total to goaltending rather than $7M would be a big relief.  If that doesn't seem like enough money for two goalies, consider: this season, the Bruins committed $4.375M to goalies, and the Blackhawks committed $3.81M.  It's hard to identify value in goalies, but Ray Shero makes a lot of money to do things that are hard.

[Not-so-quick tangent: One of these hard things is maintaining professionalism and a sense of the big picture when in front of the media, something Shero has handled very well.  Though not everyone is impressed.  Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, the troll of trolls, the incessant whiner who thinks he's smarter than everyone else even though he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald, the peddler of smug self-righteous paternalism who basically spends the entirety of his time complaining about how dumb hockey is, complained (surprising, right?) that Ray Shero gave Marc-Andre Fleury a "vote of confidence" during Shero's press conference.

Great point, Lambert.  The better thing for Shero to do would have been to say, "hey everyone, my goalie stinks and we are desperate to get rid of him, now make me a great offer!"  Fans can slam players with no repercussions; but it's the height of irresponsibility for a manager looking to maximize the value of a player to do anything other than publicly express support and appreciation for that player.  If Shero wants to get rid of Fleury (and he should), he has to pretend that he wants to keep Flower.  If Shero does end up keeping Fleury, whether by choice or because there are no takers for him, there is nothing to gain from a public humiliation.  We can only assume that if Lambert put his house up for sale, he'd title the Craigslist post: "SHITTY HOUSE IN TERRIBLE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR SALE!"

And finally, let's not forget that Shero and Fleury have worked together for 7 years and probably like each other personally -- you don't go out and rip someone publicly who you like.  Maybe this is hard for Lambert to understand (again, he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald), but it's also what makes the Penguins a destination franchise.  The Iginla and Morrow trades didn't work out on the ice, but they both chose to come to Pittsburgh because they wanted to play here.  We don't care that Lambert doesn't recognize the value in that. We're just glad Ray Shero does. End of tangent.]

This sets up what is likely to be a repeat of the Jordan Staal scenario: the Pens have a genuine interest in keeping the guy and make a competitive offer to do so.  If the player wants it, he stays.  If not, he's traded within a matter of days.

We'd be stunned if any of his kids' names didn't start with a K.
For the sake of wasting time, let's assume there's a trade.  What's the return?  We begin a week of exploring five unrealistic trades below, an exercise we embark on because we enjoy hockey and the NHL, not because we think these trades would actually happen.

Keep in mind:

1) Letang will only count $3.5 million against the cap this coming season, making him one of the league's best bargains in 2013-14.  His contract expiration is also well-timed because while the salary cap is dropping next year (when Letang will be affordable for almost anyone) the cap can, and probably will, rise every year after as Letang gets more expensive.  If you're bullish on the growth of the salary cap, or if you have a lot of money scheduled to come off the salary cap after the 2013-14 season [cut to us pointing at the Sedin twins], Letang is the perfect asset.

2) Letang is better than Jordan Staal.  For all of Letang's faults, this is not even a close comparison.  Letang is one of the most physically gifted players in the league; Jordan Staal is a super-tall beast with a good hockey sense, but he also has hands of stone and scores only bi-weekly for long stretches of a season.  The Staal deal is a good starting point for a Letang trade, but the Pens have to get back more than prospects and the Brandon Sutter of The Blueline.

3) Trading Kris Letang has the potential to become the worst move of Ray Shero's career.  The potential downside of trading Letang far outweighs the potential upside.  Although Letang is actually a little bit older (26) than you'd think given his on-ice immaturity, there's still exponential room for growth.  It might be as simple as getting him a new coach that can tighten the reins [cut to us pointing at Mike Babcock] to get more Good Letang and less Shout-Go-F-Yourself-At-The-TV-Letang.

Hypothetical Trade #1: The Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto gets: Kris Letang
Pittsburgh gets: James Van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner and a #1 pick (21st overall)

Why it makes sense for Toronto: They get a marquee guy who plays an attractive style of hockey; makes them even faster and an even tougher match-up for any team in the East; takes offensive pressure off of Dion Phaneuf thereby freeing him up to destroy more people in open ice; Letang is insurance if the Leafs plan to let Phaneuf walk as a UFA after the coming season; Letang still has upside.

Why it makes sense for Pittsburgh: JVR is super-talented and a presence in front; he has a reasonable contract at $4.25M/year through 2018, meaning the Pens would have a top-4 of Sid, Geno, Neal, and JVR locked up for the next 5 seasons; though JVR hasn't shown consistent production, he did have 32 points in 48 games last season so he might very well be on the verge of breaking out like James Neal did 2 years ago; Gardiner had a rocky regular season but got rave reviews in the playoffs and was even compared to Scott Neidermayer by Joffrey Lupul; Pens get back into the first round (and maybe take a goalie?); Gardiner is a RFA after this season so the Pens could probably lock him up at a very reasonable $2-$4M/year price tag over the next 2-3 years rather than the $7M they'd have to give Letang.

Why it wouldn't happen: The Leafs made a very similar deal for Phil Kessel -- they gave Boston a 2nd overall pick (Tyler Seguin), a 9th overall pick (Dougie Hamilton), and a 32nd overall pick (Jared Knight).  This proposed trade would be similar -- JVR was 2nd overall, Gardiner 17th overall, and Toronto's 1st rounder this season is 21st overall.  The Leafs may be hesitant to give up another 3 pieces -- especially ones who they already know are pretty good players -- in exchange for just one guy because they're already trending up without Letang.

From the Pens perspective, the key is how quickly Gardiner can develop and even if the Pens are really high on him, there would still be too much uncertainty on the blue-line this coming season.  In any deal that unloads Letang's erratic play, the Pens need some steadiness in return. Gardiner may become that, but he also may be too uncertain this coming season.

Like the Staal trade, this move would only be the start of the broader strategy, as the Pens would still need more defense.  The Pens could scour the free agent market, the buyouts, or maybe move one of their perpetually-discussed prospects to get another D-man who can eat up some minutes and bodies.  Or they could follow up this trade by moving the one person this deal would make most expendable:

Wave goodbye to Hands? Noooooooo!!!!

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Pens season recap podcast: What's next? Discussing Bylsma, Malkin, Fleury and more

Now that Ray Shero has spoken and the Pens have signed Dan Bylsma to a 2-year contract extension, the change that's coming to this team is in personnel only.  On GTOG's official season wrap-up podcast, we talk about Shero's press conference, his support of Bylsma and Fleury, what the Pens should and will do this summer with Malkin and Letang, and all the other choices -- some easy, some hard -- that the team will have to make this offseason. It's the GTOG Podcast.

Listen while you watch the Stanley Cup Finals with Pierre McGuire muted.

You can listen below or on our Spreaker page.  If you want to take the podcast mobile, either click here to subscribe on iTunes, or download the Spreaker app for iPhone or Android.



Monday, June 10, 2013

Dan Bylsma's awkward embrace of Fleury: What's going on here?

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

[Click here for our podcast and post recapping the end of the Pens' season]

The landscape around the Pens is a real mess right now.

It's about to get real weird.
Dan Bylsma held a press conference yesterday and talked confidently about Marc-Andre Fleury in an exchange that was either sanctioned by the Pens' top brass or was an outright act of insubordination.

Said Bylsma, per the Post-Gazette:
"Marc-Andre Fleury is our No. 1 goalie."
"He's the No. 1 goalie for this franchise, and he will be going forward."
"Marc-Andre Fleury is a guy who's going to come back to our team [next season] and he's going to be the No. 1 goalie. He's going to be our franchise goalie, this franchise's goalie.  Marc-Andre Fleury is going to go back in net. He's going to take the net. He's going to be the No. 1 goalie. He's going to play great. There's no question about that. And he's going to win a lot of hockey games for this team next season. He'll have that opportunity in the playoffs again when this team gets there."
And regarding Tomas Vokoun:
"Tomas, I don't think, is in any different boat than he was when he came in here for last season. He's a guy who makes our goaltending tandem a very good one. He's going to play games for us, big games for us. He came in and did for us exactly what we signed him for last year. Next year, he's not going to get that opportunity [to become the starter] because Marc-Andre Fleury's going to be in net winning hockey games."
What the hell?  Read on for our quick thoughts...

Dejan Kovacevic rightly noted the absurdity of Bylsma's position, both on the substance of what he said and on the mere fact that he said it given that Bylsma is, you know, not the general manager.

But Ron Cook, being Ron Cook, decided to come out in full-throated support of Bylsma, suggesting that the Pens give him an extension this summer because it wasn't Bylsma's fault the Pens lost and hockey coaches too often get a raw deal.

It's a lot to digest on this Monday morning, so let us make just two quick points:

1) Even putting aside the highly questionable merits of Bylsma guaranteeing Fleury the top goalie spot next season (something we will discuss at length in a podcast later this week), we don't want Fleury to come back next season for selfish reasons.  We'll spend 82 games waiting for the implosion.  When Flower gets some 18-save shutout against Tampa over Thanksgiving weekend next season, are we supposed to think that means everything will be OK come late April?  He feels like a ticking time-bomb.  A $5 million suicide vest.


2) We're still sorting through our own thoughts on whether the Pens should retain Bylsma, but we're not operating on the faulty assumption that the following two statements are mutually exclusive: Dan Bylsma is a good coach, and the Pens need to fire him.  Both can be true.  There is no shortage of candidates for blame for the Pens' four straight playoff disappointments, but debating the relative blameworthiness of the coach, players, and management doesn't address the only question that matters: How do the Pens ensure that the next four playoffs don't end the same way?

As we wrote about last week, NHL coaches have a shelf-life and Dan Bylsma will start next season already at double the average tenure of Stanley Cup winning coaches since 1990.  Maybe he's outlived his utility in Pittsburgh.  Or maybe not.  But either way, yesterday certainly didn't help.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Some random follow-up thoughts on the Pens' double-OT loss to Boston

By GTOG Staff

Listen to the below or click here. And as always, click here to subscribe on iTunes.



[If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"]

The more we think about Game 3, the more we end up thinking about games 1 and 2.  The Pens probably win that game last night 53 out of 100 times. Unfortunately, they don't play best-of-100 series. Which is exactly why you can't give away 2 playoff games in a series -- at home, no less -- and expect to win 4 of 5 against a very good team when you're pretty close to dead-even with that team when you're both playing at your best. The Pens played really well last night, but all it does is shine a light on the stinkers in the first two games. We know the Pens can play as well as they did in game 3. We still have no idea why they can't do it more consistently.

No shame in losing Game 3. Great shame in being down 3-0.
Unable to put together any sort of cohesive reaction to last night, here are a bunch of random things we're thinking about, in no particular order.

- Along with the misfortune of having just faced down the barrel of a 3-0 series deficit last spring, we have the advantage of knowing exactly how this could work. Take advantage of Boston's inevitable if slight psychological shift in Game 4, when they cannot possibly match the Pens sense of desperation. Score 10 goals in the game (Note: will settle for 3. OK, 2.).



Come back to Pittsburgh and score a tight 3-2 victory. Suddenly, everything is in play. Even losing 5-1 in Game 6.

- Malkin was the best player on the ice last night, and it wasn't particularly close. He gets an A+ for generating scoring chances. But you don't win games with scoring chances. It's hard to think about the 21 shot attempts without thinking about the fact that none of them went in. It's a distinct talent to generate the types of chances that Malkin generated last night; it's also a distinct talent to finish the chances. Some of last night was just being snake-bit. The rest is him needing to be better at finishing.  If he was a running back, he'd have been taken out at the goal line.

- The Mike Alstott to Geno Malkin should be Jarome Iginla, but you could make a low-light reel of all the juicy rebounds that have bounced over Iggy's stick in the last month.

- Sidney Crosby was terrible early, but got much better as the game went on. A really strong defensive effort. But that's like complimenting your gardener for not tracking mud in the house. It's not what Sid is paid to do.

- The most disappointing part of Sid's game has been the power-play. It's expected that when teams load up to stop a guy at even-strength, they will usually have some success doing that, especially with players as good as Boston has. The power-play is the time to shake loose from those shackles and at least get comfortable having the puck on your stick. Sid hasn't done that at all. Dreadful on the PP.

- The PK was wonderful last night. PP was the real culprit.

- In moment of candor, would Ray Shero admit that he would have traded Brendan Morrow back to Dallas after Iginla fell in Pens' lap? And would he admit that after getting Morrow, he only got Iginla to keep him away from Boston? Because they're largely redundant. The Pens needed one of them. Not both.

- 7:09 on the PK for Craig Adams. What a performance. If he buries that slapper that hit the post in OT, the city probably names a steel mill after him.

- Refs on "let's take 'em both" patrol are the worst.


- Bylsma is deservedly getting a lot of heat. Arguably his worst stat from last night: Joe Vitale played 9:38 and only took 3 face-offs. If that's all you're using him for, why is he playing over Jokinen and TK, when the team's biggest issue against Boston has been an inability to score?

- It's one thing to dress Vitale if you think you need what he brings. It's another thing entirely to dress Vitale and then act like you don't even want him in the lineup. This really confuses us about Bylsma -- he insists on dressing guys in whom he has no confidence giving even a semi-regular shift. It's not like he doesn't have options.

- Speaking of TK, as we discussed on the podcast, he would have been a real asset in OT.  The one thing he never lacks is energy. There's potential for a great match-up against a tired team in OT.

- We've reached the point in the season where we're asking for more Tyler Kennedy. In other news, the Pens are about to get swept.

- Lineup changes for Game 4. Niskanen can't play with Letang. Have to keep Cooke with Geno and Neal. Bennett should stay and get PP time. BB is one definite bright spot heading into next season.

- The Pens scored 10 goals in Game 4 against Philly last year. The Pens also scored 12 in games 1-3. The Pens have 2 goals in 11 periods this series.

- The series isn't over so we're not in the mood to make pronouncements about the off-season. Except for one. Marc-Andre Fleury has got to go. This shouldn't be hard decision, and in light of the decisiveness of Shero's handling of Jordan Staal last year, we expect it will happen quickly. It doesn't matter who else is available. Fleury is not a winning option going forward.

- The way he's played this season, the Pens should feel very fortunate that Vokoun is signed through next season. He can't play 65 games. But the games he plays, he usually plays well.

- For as much talent as Letang has, and as high as his ceiling is, the Pens haven't really accomplished anything with him since he's been the team's best defenseman. Yet he's so gifted that you have to start wondering if a different coach could get him to play the right way more often. Whether here or elsewhere.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

Clicks of the Day: Rossi on the goalies, Pensblog on Letang

By GTOG Staff

A few quick thoughts and links on the morning of Game 3.

- We started the morning asking each other whether we felt confident about the game tonight.  We feel neither optimistic nor pessimistic.  We have absolutely no idea what Penguins team will show up tonight.

- Rob Rossi has a 5-point plan for turning the series around.  The first four points make sense.  The fifth point -- that the Pens need to turn to Fleury -- is absurd:
Journeyman Tomas Vokoun was pulled from Game 2 after allowing three goals, but only because the Penguins needed a spark. He's 6-3 with a .929 save percentage and has done nothing to deserve a demotion.
Still, this moment calls for Marc-Andre Fleury.
He was the franchise goalie when the playoffs started. The Penguins need to find out if he's still up for that job. They can't if he is inserted into games only when they need a spark.
This series still can be won, and it has shifted to Boston, where Fleury is 5-1-0 with a 1.67 goals-against average and .946 save percentage over the past five seasons.
Now -- when the Pens are down 2-0 and heading on the road in the Eastern Conference Finals -- is the time to determine whether Fleury should be the Pens' goalie in the future?  
Funny, because all this time we thought the point was to actually win the game tonight.

If you think Fleury should start tonight because he gives the Pens the best chance to win the game, that's fine (though incorrect).  If you think he should start tonight because the Pens need to find out if he's still capable of being the starter, then why not go skydiving with a parachute that hasn't opened properly since 2009 to see if it still works?


- Hilarious post from The Pensblog pointing out two directly contradictory quotes about the Bruins' forecheck by Kris Letang within a matter of days.  In Letang's defense, maybe the Bruins have changed up their tactics.  But if Letang is right about their most recent strategy -- "they just wait for us to make mistakes" -- isn't that the biggest indictment against the Pens of all?  If the low response rate wouldn't embarrass us so much, we'd ask the poll question this morning: "Does Kris Letang realize he had a bad game in game 2?"

- Here's the One From the Heart video about the Kevin Stevens guarantee (5:18 mark).  Does something that happened in 1991 have any relevance on this series?  No.  But it's still fun to watch.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

So, the Pens got destroyed by Boston last night. Now what?

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

Listen to the podcast below or click here.  And click here to subscribe on iTunes.



Last night the Pens were a nerdy 7th grader who got tied to a fence and de-pantsed by the cool kids at the beginning of recess, then had to stand there for the next 40 minutes while everyone laughed and pointed.  There was no facet of the game in which the Pens played well, no redeeming performance by any individual players, and almost nothing to give you confidence the Pens can win a game in this series, let alone the series itself.  All credit to the Bruins, whose stars dominated the Pens' stars, whose grinders dominated the Pens' grinders, and whose coaching staff is making Dan Bylsma look completely out of his league.

You're doing it wrong.
More after the jump...

The good news is that it was only game 2.  At least we hope that's the good news.  The Pens have shown a tendency to lose ugly this year (10 of their 12 losses were by 2 goals or more), and though it is surprising to have been so thoroughly dominated through much of two games, it would be completely unsurprising if the Pens won game 3 in Boston, even by a large margin.  What the Pens haven't done this series is get a lead on Boston and force the Bruins to adapt.  The Bruins have been able to do everything that they're really good at with very little resistance from the Pens; unless the Pens can dictate the terms of the game, even a little bit, the Bruins will win this series and will probably do it easily.

This isn't to say that the Pens need to go all crazy before game 3 and try to change everything.  In fact, it's quite the opposite.  The Pens need to figure out what will make them successful again -- making simple plays defensively, possessing the puck for long enough to allow creativity to take over -- and then do it.  And then keep doing it even if the Bruins are making it hard.  And if the Bruins are still making it hard, then you know what the Pens should do?  Keep doing it.

This is all much easier said that done, mainly because of how good Boston has been. But an almost equal reason for pessimism has to do with the Penguins' own mentality. Every quote after these losses is the same: "We got away from our game."  Well, why?  Why does a team that can be so good play so badly sometimes?  Why does Kris Letang look like a first ballot hall-of-famer some nights and a total scrub on other nights?  Why do Crosby and Malkin, now in their mid to late-twenties, still get so flustered when things aren't coming easily for them?  Why do the Pens either look like the best offensive team since the 80s or outclassed brats playing soccer with the puck because they can't connect on a pass?

The most vexing part of this team is that you have no idea what the expect from one night to the next. Game 3 in Boston could be exactly like game 3 in Philly last year where the Pens started running people and acting like babies when things weren't going their way.  Or the Pens could have a 4-goals-in-5-minutes spurt and win 6-2. Or they could play a tight-checking and disciplined 2-1 game. (That last one seems highly unlikely, but with this team, who knows).

As hard as it is to predict how the players will play, it can be equally hard to discern what the coaching staff is doing.  There's a balance between being reactive and being proactive, and Bylsma (and Shero) have failed miserably at striking that balance.  It's been 12 hours since the puck dropped and I still haven't come up with one good reason (other than possible injuries) why Derek Engelland dressed.  It's not that Engelland was any worse last night than anyone else, or even worse than Eaton would have been, but what was this move trying to accomplish?  Get grittier?  Tougher?  Why?  It's not like the Bruins' won game 1 by physically dominating the Pens -- they won game 1 because they weathered the storm and then smartly and skillfully took advantage when the Pens started chasing the game.  This move was reactionary, which on its face is disappointing from a team that went 36-12.  Even worse, it was reactionary to a non-existent problem.  Bylsma was reacting to a myth about this Bruins team -- that they're the "big, bad Bruins" -- when it's the Bruins skill and positioning that has been the major problem.

Scratching Kennedy was equally, if not more, confusing.  Yeah, Boston had won a lot of face-offs in game 1, but that "problem" didn't really tilt game 1 that much in favor of Boston -- the Pens were only outshot by 1 and the so-called "advanced stats" (which involve counting, then adding) were fairly even given this allegedly crippling discrepancy.  The problem in game 1 was that the Pens couldn't finish.  So Byslma's solution was to sit the best scorer and puck possession guy the Pens have in their bottom 6 for a guy who may be able to win the face-off ... but to what end?  Vitale wins the offensive zone draw to Niskanen, who shoots it into the corner ... who is getting it and then doing anything with it?  Brenden Morrow?  An overreaction to a real, but hardly fatal, problem.

Both of these moves were marginal in the sense that they didn't in any way cost the Pens this game.  The Pens are a unique team.  No one plays like the Pens, but the Pens don't -- and can't -- play like anyone else.  So why try?  Why let the Bruins dictate your lineup?  At home, no less.  Coupled with his inability to extract any consistency from his best players, Dan Bylsma has as much to answer for as anyone.

One thing that Bylsma can and should answer immediately is the goaltending question, although there really shouldn't be a question. Vokoun has to be the starter.  Neither goalie was responsible for this loss, but to anyone who has watched Fleury over the course of his career, it's obvious that this guy is gone mentally.  We saw the goal from Marchand almost immediately after the Sutter goal.  We don't need to see more.  He's so horrible right now that you could easily make the case that he shouldn't even dress as the backup.  Fleury looked like he wanted to cry ... when the Pens put him IN the game.


The series is not lost, though when the Pens finally get it together it may be too late to salvage given how well the Bruins are playing.  It certainly looks bleak heading back to Boston down 2-0.  If the Pens were a normal team, you could look at the results from the first two games and figure that Boston is simply a better team and the Pens would be lucky to win a game. That very well might be the case. But the Pens aren't a normal team.  So, really, who the fuck knows what's going to happen?

Monday, June 3, 2013

Podcast: Pens dominated by Bruins in Game 2, 6-1

Well that was terrible. The Pens were completely dominated by a terrific game from Boston and then compounded it with an all-time stink-bomb. We chronicle it all, LIVE on the GTOG Podcast, after the final whistle.

Listen below or click here.



The Prime Minister's face.

Friday, May 31, 2013

Penguins vs. Bruins: Tale of the Tape

By GTOG Staff

[You can find the preview podcast here]

It's Eastern Conference Finals Eve, Boston vs. Pittsburgh, when thoughts of Mario Lemieux torturing Ray Bourque swirl in our heads, somewhere Andy Moog is waking up in a cold sweat, and the Tale of the Tape between these two titans becomes urgent and required reading. Our thoughts and prayers are with Ulf Samuelsson's right thigh, which is to this day still traumatized by Cam Neely's carelessness. And we wish Vladimir Ruzicka the best in his quest to forget everything that happened after his 5-point performance in Game 2 in 1991. Let's break this down.


Obstacle Overcomability

This is always our most important category, because it defines the NHL playoffs. If you can play, you can play, but if you can't overcome adversity, you can't win. The Bruins had that historic comeback against the Leafs when they were down three goals in the third period of Game 7, and down two goals with 1:22 left in regulation. Amazing, unprecedented stuff from the Bruins. But you know what else is amazing? The fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs took a 4-1 lead in Game 7 against Boston in Boston. You don't give Bill Clinton credit for still being married to Hillary because no one gets obstacle overcomeability points for overcoming themselves.

The Penguins saw Marc-Andre Fleury - arguably their most important piece of the playoff puzzle heading into round 1 - melt down against the Islanders. They're still meshing as team and figuring out who belongs in the lineup. Their captain and best player is only now setting aside a face shield that - believe it or not - limited his effectiveness. They face enormous external pressure to win and win going away. And all the Penguins are doing is getting better.

EDGE: Pens.

Read on for the rest of the categories ...

Emergeability

The bad news for the Pens is that this is one Tale of the Tape category that they can never win, at least as currently constituted.  Unless like 8 guys get hurt, we're not seeing anyone play whose ceiling we don't already know, or at least have a pretty good idea.

"Brian Dumoulin is not walking through that door!"
Torey Krug redefined emergeability in the Bruins' series, scoring 4 goals in 5 games.  But it may not even be the right kind of emergeability.  Claude Giroux showed great emergeability in 2008-09 against the Pens, then blew the doors off emergeability in '09-'10 when the Flyers went to the Cup.  That was the right kind of emergeability -- he emerged into a much better player than anyone thought he was.  What Krug did was so unexpected that it raises the question: was this emergeability or flashinthepanability?  Regardless, the Bruins may use three rookie defensemen at any point in this series.  Pretty sure everyone on the Pens has been in the league for a dozen years.

EDGE: Bruins.

Coiffability

Hair is about appearance, but it's also about trust. And if you can't trust your captain's hair, how can you trust your captain?

Here's Bruins' captain Zdeno Chara winning the Stanley Cup.


He looks like any other 6'9" man struggling with hair loss, probably figuring that no one will see the top of his head.  But here he is at the parade a few days later.


Are we really supposed to believe that it's natural for a 30+ year-old-man to magically patch-up his male pattern baldness in a few days?  Get real.

Zdeno made a deal with the devil to win that Cup. Now the debt has come due.

EDGE: Pens. 

Sex Appealability

Time to check in with the Women of GTOG for their thoughts on this always crucial factor.


Mrs. Artistry: Edge, Penguins.

Artistry's Mom: Edge, Penguins.

EDGE: Pens.

Legacyability 

This is a forward looking category -- think 10 or 15 years in the future and ask yourself whose legacy is more positively or negatively impacted by winning or losing this series.

In the upside department, the Pens have more to gain, if only because they have two players who will be far more memorable than anyone on the Bruins.  If the Pens go on to win the Cup, Crosby and Malkin each get a second Cup and become, without any further question, the two defining players of the salary cap era, which would instantly come to be known as the Sid and Geno Era.  And because of their popularity and excellence, the Penguins become the defining post-lockout team.  Fair or not, that's how life works.  If Boston wins, then they can make a better argument for having the best team post-lockout, though there will still be plenty of other teams making a case in what would be an ongoing debate.  From an individual perspective, outside of Chara, the Bruins aren't really defined as individuals -- if  they win the Cup, they'll basically have 6 or 7 guys who will be remembered like Patrick Elias is remembered.  (I mean that as a compliment).

Such a memorable face.
If the Pens lose, it won't put any sort of choker label on them, but it will be devastating.  A total wasted opportunity.  And if the Bruins lose, does their 2011 Stanley Cup deserve an asterisk because they didn't have to go through Crosby and Malkin to get there?

All of this is a long way of saying that it will be awesome if the Pens win so that we can make fun of the Bruins' Cup in 2011.

EDGE: Pens.

Spurnability 

We've made our thoughts on Jaromir Jagr clear this week, but to summarize: we're basically out of thoughts on Jagr.  It is the classic it-is-what-it-is situation.  He didn't want to play for the Pens last year.  We're over it.

"I ain't over it."
Iginla's spurning of Boston is much fresher, though unlike Jagr and unlike Marian Hossa in 2008, the Bruins never really had Iginla.  They wanted him; he wanted someone else.  There's a big difference between your rival stealing away a girl you just met at the bar and stealing away your girlfriend.

Nevertheless, this will be made into a story all while being downplayed by the Bruins' players.  If Boston loses the series, they will continue to downplay it.  But if they win?  Boy, did we show him!

EDGE: Bruins.

Annoyability

The Islanders were annoying in the way that it's annoying to play pickup basketball against a guy who hustles and sets a lot of screens.  He's not doing anything wrong, but who wants the hassle?  The only annoying thing the Senators did was make you feel guilty for beating them so badly.

The Bruins are a whole different animal in this department. Brad Marchand and Milan Lucic are this year's Wayne Simmonds and Scott Hartnell -- you want to laugh at them like you do to a Chris Neil, but they're actually good players.  Nathan Horton's face when he scores is Cammalleri-esque.  Gregory Campbell's dad works for the NHL -- not his fault, but also not our fault for hating him.  Pierre McGuire will verbally fellate Patricie Bergeron the first time he makes a good defensive play on Crosby.  Tyler Seguin has 1 goal in 12 games, so he will probably score a hat trick Game 1, and then you'll read stories about him being part of  the Phil Kessel trade and then you'll be like, "I'm already disgusted and now I'm being forced to read about Phil Kessel?"  David Krejci is going to make some sick pass that embarrasses Matt Niskanen, and then McGuire will scream, "KREJCI'S IN HIS HEAD, DOC! DAVY KREJCI IS IN MATTY NISKANEN'S HEAD, DOC!"  Jaromir Jagr will make a diving motion at Crosby while we furiously Google "Paul Pierce wheelchair."  And you know at least one of their rookie defensemen is going to goad Evgeni Malkin into a bad penalty.

You will see this face. Just be ready for it.
The Pens have their share of annoying tendencies, but there's a huge difference between the two teams.  The Bruins can win by getting under your skin.  The Pens can get under your skin by winning.

EDGE: Bruins.

Stalwartability 

Dejan Kovacevic wrote about the Letang-Chara "match-up" the other day and figured that whoever outplayed the other one would win the series.  But in reality, it's not quite that simple.  Letang doesn't need to outperform Chara -- he needs to prove that he can do for the Pens what Chara can do for Boston.  As great of a player as Letang is and can be, he hasn't anchored a defense to a Stanley Cup the way Chara did for Boston in 2011.  When the Pens won the Cup in 2009, Letang averaged 19:18 of ice time per game in the playoffs, the fifth most among Pens' defensemen, and finished with a +1 rating. When the Bruins won the Cup in 2011, Chara averaged 27:39 per game and was a +16.

This isn't to say that Letang can't do it, just that he hasn't.  Yet.  So far this post-season, Letang is averaing 27 minutes per game and could realistically end up leading the playoffs in scoring by the time it's over.  He's been that good.  But it also isn't getting any easier.

Chara isn't a target for Letang to beat. He's a measuring stick.


EDGE: Bruins.

Leadability

"I'll take this one, guys."
I like to look at life as a fraternity. Right now the fraternity is me, Tom, Drew, Aar, Joe, Eli, and Pey. I see a lot of that fraternity within these teams. You got Sid, who I'm close with, I feel comfortable just saying to him, 'hey, you know, Sid, if you ever need to shoot some ideas around or pick my brain, me and Ash will have you over any time.' Geno, too. Now they bring in Brend' and 'Rome. Boston is full of great leaders, too. It started with John. Then you had John Quincy. Bill. Larry. Now Tom. I look at their team and I see Looch and March and Kre and 'Deno and it looks a lot like a brotherhood to me. So I just keep doing what I'm doing, controlling what I'm controlling, whether it's going 8-8 with the dink-n-dunk or winning 2 Super Bowls with me throwing deep to 'Twan, 'Tone, and 'Tonio. You know, whatever the team needs. And I see a lot of myself in Sid. This one's for 'Rome.


EDGE: Pens.

Intangibility

This category is less about the more commonly discussed intangibles like leadership, toughness, want-to, really-want-do, sorta-want-to, and definitely-want-to than it is about the ultimate intangible -- whether the invisible hand of destiny will decide to intervene.  The Pens don't really have anything in this department; for Boston, the question is whether the whole Boston Strong movement in the wake of the marathon bombings is going to be an emotional factor in this series.  It's hard to imagine that it's still going to be, given the amount of tributes, anthems, Sweet Carolines, and all of the other sports-related ceremonies and memorials that have been done already and, of course, the fact that the Pens have already played there in the immediate aftermath (and won).  If anything, the emotional toll and the toll on convenience from the manhunt was a negative for Boston: they closed the regular season by going 2-5 and then nearly (and probably should have) lost to Toronto.  Now things have returned to normal and the Bruins are rested.  That's a scarier thought than destiny intervening.

EDGE: Bruins

FINAL SCORE: 5-5

Predictions

Boston can and might win this series.  They are a really good team without a lot of weaknesses the Pens can exploit. But if the Pens are who we all think they are, the Pens will win this series.  An eight day break leaves a lot of time for breaking down specific match-ups, but it all comes back to the most basic match-up: who has better players?  Unless something weird starts happening, the Pens don't have any glaring weaknesses that Boston can exploit to overcome the simple fact that the Pens have more better players.  Not much better. But better.


Pens in 6.

Wednesday, May 29, 2013

Pens-Bruins preview podcast: Oozing with analysis, emotion, and predictions

It's our Pens-Bruins Eastern Conference Finals preview podcast.  How does the long delay affect the series? Which Bruin do you fear the most? What's the deal with the Tortorella firing? All that, our predictions, and so much more. It's the GTOG Podcast.




**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**


TWITTER: Follow Artistry. Follow Finesse. Follow GTOG.

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

First Period Recap: Pens up 2-1, but don't get comfortable

The bad news is that Craig Anderson has already proven, unlike Evgeni Nabokov, to be a real goalie.  The good news is the Pens already have 2 goals on him.

Look for Morrow to be a factor in this series, albeit in limited ice time.  He'll get in Anderson's kitchen. He already did on Martin's goal.

Malkin was brilliant in the first period (with the notable exception of his power-play killing penalty).  If he plays like this, then not sure who touches the Pens ...

... unless, of course, Vokoun puts a couple more Fleurys in his own net.

Daniel Alfredsson's hair looks atrocious.  Sorry we talk so much about hair.  But come on.

Sutter-Iginla was a really bizarre choice to start the late 4-on-4.  Sutter couldn't find chemistry with a Bunsen Burner and a barrel of Ammonium nitrate.

Sunday, May 12, 2013

All's well that ends well: Pens win 4-3; Isles sent packing

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

Check out the recap podcast by listening below or clicking here.



When Brooks Orpik redeemed himself for nearly decapitating Sidney Crosby last month by firing a laser beam past a completely overmatched Evgeni Nabokov to send the Pens to the second round, the immediate euphoria was quickly replaced by a sense of relief.  With a team as seemingly loaded as the Pens, a first-round loss to the 8th season Islanders was unthinkable.  The fallout would have been impossible to contain.

Now all we have to do is contain the emotion.
But when the story of the 2013 Penguins is written, no one will care that the Islanders outplayed the Penguins for long stretches of this series.  The Confederacy won a lot of battles in the Civil War, too.  The playoffs are supposed to be hard. The Isles were able to capitalize on shaky goaltending by Fleury and make the Pens start feeling a little bit of doubt (fine, a lot of doubt), but the Pens did what winners do: they finished games.  Dominating the puck for two and a half periods like the Isles did is great; having world-class players making world class plays to win playoff games is better.  So if you're wallowing in the Pens poor performance for much of Game 6, you may find some solace in the most elementary aspect of the sport -- the clock.  Hockey games are 60 minutes for a reason: it's usually a long enough time to allow the better team to win.  Or at least get to overtime.


The Isles were a worthy foe.  But the better team won this series.  What this performance foretells for Ottawa is for another day.  Let's wrap this thing up.  A full breakdown of the series after the jump...


Series MVP: Tomas Vokoun

For a team that's being widely criticized even though it won the series, there are no shortage of legitimate series MVP candidates.  Malkin is tied for the lead in playoff scoring, Crosby was sensational, Pascal Dupuis constantly scores goals, Jarome Iginla had the quietest 9 points ever scored, and Letang and the Prime Minister finished with a combined 12 points and a +8 (I know, seems crazy).

But this is a fairly easy one.  The situation after Game 4 was getting a little too dire for anyone's liking.  The Pens had played a lot better in Game 4 than in Game 3 and probably should have won -- after all, the Isles only had 24 shots and gave up 4 goals.  It was clear that Fleury's terrible play was starting to affect the team's overall play.  It's very hard to "get to your game" when every shot you let up is its own roller coaster ride.

Tomas Vokoun came in and gave the Pens a baseline of competence in net.  His first period of Game 5 saved the series from slipping away in horrifyingly embarrassing fashion.  And for the rest of Game 5 and Game 6, he did all the Pens need their goalie to do: not lose the game.  In Game 6 he never let the Isles get a two goal lead and every shot against wasn't the tumultuous journey of emotion that we experienced with Fleury in net.


It shouldn't be up for debate.  Vokoun should start Game 1 against Ottawa.

Underrated performance: Jarome Iginla

Iginla had nine points in six games and flawlessly delivered every cliched quote you want from your revered Canadian veteran ex-captain.  We know he isn't the player he was ten years ago, but he's a first-ballot hall-of-famer.  The points he's racking up may come quietly, but they aren't by accident.  And look at his face in this picture celebrating TK's goal in Game 5.


Worst performer: Mark Eaton

The Pens went 20-3 with Mark Eaton in the lineup during the regular season, so the guy still has gas in the tank.  But after all-time stinkers in Games 3 and 4, he was replaced for Game 5 by Simon Despres, who the coaching staff only trusted for 6:12 of ice time in Game 3.  In other words, this was the get-Eaton-off-the-ice strategy.  It's hard to diagnose exactly what went wrong for him because he is usually So Serviceable.  Maybe the Isles' speed was a problem for him. Whatever it was, the guy looked completely overwhelmed.

He will be back in the lineup during these playoffs, and possibly even for Game 1 against Ottawa.  In the meantime, we'll all start trying to forget about his performance in this series.

Overrated storyline: Kyle Okposo

How many times did NBC Sports show the Kyle Okposo highlight reel package, which was basically him getting credit for two goals being scored by Marc-Andre Fleury, followed up by a nice move through the Pens defense but not actually scoring on Vokoun?  The guy is a good player, but the notion that he was having some kind of Claude Girouxian series against the Pens was ridiculous.  Fine, he beat up Matt Niskanen, but so has Sidney Crosby.



Unsung Hero: The Penalty Kill

With the game tied at 2, the Pens killed off two Islanders power-plays late in the second period of Game 6.  It's impossible to overstate how important these kills were.  The Pens were playing terrible hockey and the Coliseum was coming to rolling boil.  There was a serious chance of an unraveling had the Isles taken advantage.

Overall the PK killed off 18 of 20 power-plays.  That's Dance of Champions stuff.

Turning Point: Tyler Kennedy screaming for a pass at the top of his lungs

Listen to this guy call for the pass.



And what an insanely good pass by Letang.

Underrated storyline: Andrew MacDonald's broken hand

The guy was averaging over 23 minutes of ice time before he got hurt in Game 4.  Sure, the injury was largely his fault because he got hit with a shot while bear hugging Craig Adams, but still, it was a tough break for the Isles.  His replacement Radek Martinek was a veteran, but he was a veteran of a bunch of terrible Islanders teams.  And it showed.  Imagine if when Brooks Orpik was injured the Pens best option as a backup was Josef Melichar.

Series Goat: Evgeni Nabokov

It's not that he let in a ton of bad goals, though there were a few of those.  It's that he didn't make a single memorable save all series.

Crosby is saying "thank you" in this picture.
Most vexing player: Kris Letang

The guy makes more $8 million plays than any other defenseman in the league.  But he also makes more $500K plays than any defenseman in the league who thinks he's going to be worth $8 million in free agency.  That we know Letang is bipolar doesn't make it any easier to watch.  He's emotionally abusing us.  But damn, is he good.

Lasting legacy of this series:  TBD

The immediate impact of winning this series is that it relieves the suffocating pressure to get out of the first-round.  The long-term impact is yet to be written, but the obvious question is whether this was the beginning of the end for Marc-Andre Fleury.  If Fleury gets back into form and leads the Pens to the Cup, then this series is a mere hiccup on his resume and it will end up being about as memorable as Pens-Sens in 2010.  But if Vokoun leads the Pens the rest of the way, or if Fleury comes back and craps the bed again, then what happened in Games 2-4 is potentially franchise altering.  We'll cross that bridge when we come to it, but we probably haven't seen the last of the Flower this spring.

Next.





Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Breaking up with MAF, and our favorite Fleury stat from Game 4

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

It's official that Tomas Vokoun will be replacing Marc-Andre Fleury in Game 5 Thursday night in Pittsburgh. All this confirms is that Dan Bylsma watched Games 2, 3 and 4.

But before we move on from Fleury and go all-in with Vokoun, here's one final statistic from Tuesday's night's 6-4 loss on the Island.

As you are no doubt aware, the Islanders scored two goals last night on "shots" that were not actually on goal, in that they would not have gone in the net had Fleury not put them in the net.



Overall, the Islanders had 12 shot attempts miss the net at even strength.

If you take the two "shots" that Fleury scored on himself and add them to the 12 "missed shots" the Isles had at even strength, Marc-Andre Fleury's save percentage at even strength on shots that missed the net was .857.



A final thought on Flower. We really like the guy and genuinely feel bad for him. We're not the type of Pens fans who would rather be right than see the team win.  Nothing would make us happier than Flower regaining his mojo and leading the Pens to the Cup before turning to the camera and giving the entirety of GTOG Nation the finger. It's a sad day and in many ways it feels like a breakup. We still love him. We just need some time apart.