No Contract for Old Men: Scuderi, Dupuis, Kunitz and Adams

By Artistry

Ray Shero has had a brilliant July, so why does it smell like old people in here? Uh, that's easy. It's because the Penguins just handed a combined $40 million to the guys in the headline -- in deals that will keep them in Pittsburgh until they're 38, 37, 38, and 38, respectively. For now, those four join Brooks Orpik (33 in September), Paul Martin (32), Tomas Vokoun (37), Jussi Jokinen (30), and Tanner Glass (30 in November) as regulars in the 2013-14 lineup. No reason to panic about these numbers, but let's face it, sometimes people go from "old man strong" to "I've fallen, and I can't get up" in the blink of a swollen Deryk Engelland eye. Wait. What's that? Holy shit. I'm being told Deryk Engelland is already 31.

Craig Adams, Jr.

Here's the paradox of this off-season: you can't argue about any of Shero's moves if you look at them in isolation. But if you look at the roster as a whole and don't feel at least mildly uncomfortable, you haven't been paying attention. Why Shero isn't done, after the jump...

As a predicate, Shero is the best in the business at understanding the market and underpaying when virtually every other team is giving the Tyler Bozaks of the world $21,000,000. Or locking up an injury-prone Nathan Horton, who last scored as many as 30 goals 7 years ago by the way, for 7 more years at $37 million. Or buying out their last big mistake. Really, we could do a dissertation on why pretty much every deal this done summer was a bad one, but who has the time? Rob Scuderi is probably the only big-name UFA who didn't get massively overpaid. And yes, he is exactly what the Pens need on the back-end.

EXACTLY.

Pascal Dupuis and Chris Kunitz? Both just signed for $1 million a year less than they could have gotten on the market. No question. Kunitz was first team all-NHL for God's sake, and he took a million a year less than Ryan Clowe got from New Jersey. Ryan Clowe scored three goals last season. THREE! OK, I know I said I wasn't going to get into this, but look:

- In Ryan Clowe's best season, he had 24 goals. Dupuis and Kunitz just scored 20 and 22, respectively, in 48 GAMES.

- Patrick Elias just signed an over-35-year-old-so-say-goodbye-to-this-money-forever 3 year, $5.5M a year contract after scoring 14 goals.

- Toronto decided to pay Dave Clarkson $5.25M a year every year until he's 36. His career high in points is 46. Over 80 games. Kunitz just scored 52 points in 48 games.

- Detroit just handed Daniel Alfredsson $5.5M, perhaps with the hope he can, what, double his 10-goal output from last season?

Do we see a pattern yet? The Dupuis and Kunitz deals were GREAT signings. Stellar signings. Inarguably.

"We're rich, hahahaha, rich! What? You mean Matt Cullen got $3.5M a year?"

You have a problem with re-signing Craig Adams for 2 years at $700K per? Fine. But you won't find better value. Adams is arguably the Pens' top penalty killer and was one of maybe two guys (Vokoun being the other) who actually played over his head in the Boston series. And he costs virtually nothing.

See? It's as easy as can be to make the case for all of these moves, but it doesn't change the fact that the Pens already tried and failed to win the Cup with an aging all-star team. It also does nothing to address the glaring holes in the bottom 6, where Matt Cooke, Brenden Morrow, Jarome Iginla, and Tyler Kennedy used to reside. Now we're looking at Jokinen, Glass, Vitale, Dustin Jeffrey, and Adams, with no legitimate depth beyond them. Anybody think Brandon Sutter is going to carry this group? Anyone? This is the first time I can recall that there is no realistic chance for any minor league forward prospect to make the team out of camp. Who's going to do it? You Dom Uher? You Tom Kuehnhackl?

Pretty dramatic, Tom Kuehnhackl.

There needs to be a youth infusion, and the bet here is it's still pending. Matt Niskanen is now a must-move, and Engelland, Jokinen, and Glass may have some (limited) trade value as well. With the Pens right up against the cap and with the aforementioned holes, it's worth exploring. And don't discount the possibility that there is some team out there drooling over Marc-Andre Fleury, who with a change of scenery could easily regain his 2008-2009 playoff form. He can fetch assets, even though the Penguins would be selling low, low, low. What the Pens need in return for some or all of these players are cheap, fast forwards, with room to grow. If Fleury goes, they'll need another goalie, too.

Over the next three months, when the free agent frenzy has long subsided, that's when Shero will really need to earn his GM-of-the-year title. This isn't over.

Letang, Dupuis, Ovechkin, and all the other happenings in the NHL

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

A lot has happened since our last post on Monday, so let's get to it.

The Letang Extension

The more we think about it, the more we like it.  At the beginning of Kris Letang Trade Week, we said that the Pens' best course of action was to sign Letang for 8 years at $7M per season.  They got him signed for 8 years at $7.25M, so we can't really complain.  It must have been incredibly tempting for Shero to see what he could get for Letang in a trade, but regardless of the return, here's the landscape Shero was staring at that made it clear Letang was a must-sign: an 82 game schedule where the Pens would be dependent on Paul Martin to be the team's best offensive and defensive defenseman for 26 minutes a night.  We're as big of PM fans as anyone, but that's probably because we've always maintained realistic expectations about his role.  And number one defenseman is not Paul Martin's role.

All things considered, not bad.

If the Pens had traded Letang in exchange for anything less than a bonafide top-2 defenseman, the Pens immediately become a team in desperate need of another minutes-eating defenseman.  And desperation leads to overpaying someone from this incredibly underwhelming list of free agent defensemen.  Basically, this is the classic "a maddeningly frustrating but uber-talented French-Canadian defenseman in hand is better than an overpaid Jeff Schultz and Andrew Ference in the bush" situation.

While a $7.25M cap hit is high, remember the following: the extension doesn't kick in until after next season when the cap is expected to rise.  And if you have been paying attention to some of the huge contracts being thrown at much lesser players than Letang (Lecavailer, Streit, etc), there are two takeaways: either other owners are wildly overpaying mid-level players again, thereby making the Letang signing look even better, OR economic models are very bullish on the NHL's revenue growth, which would make the Letang signing more affordable long-term.

It's a big financial risk, no question about that.  Letang has a ton of issues, and it's clear from the fact that almost all of his mistakes are mental that he isn't being coached properly by a coaching staff that is returning for at least another two years.  But it also wouldn't be surprising if Letang pocketed a few Norris Trophies during the next 9 years.  Of the Pens' three mega-deals, Letang is the only one who still has upside.  Good signing.

More on Dupuis, Bylsma, Ovechkin, and Shero after the jump...


The Pascal Dupuis signing: 4 years, $3.75M/year cap hit

This is a closer call than the Letang extension because Dupuis is 34 and is not the potentially transcendent talent that Letang is.  But before we dive into the weeds on his deal, a global point: it's not a bad thing that Pascal Dupuis is on the Pens for the next 4 years.  The guy is one of the most efficient scorers in the league, he kills penalties, and he can play on any line on either wing.  He's also durable ("doorable" as Pittsburghers would say), having missed a total of 13 games in the past 5 seasons.  Worst case scenario is he's a 40-50 point guy for the next 2 years (all at even strength), then drops to a 3rd-line caliber player for the final two years.  There are worse things than Pascal Dupuis on your 3rd line.

But it is a long commitment to a 34 year-old.  Hockey players can decline rapidly, and it's not like Dupuis has a singular skill he can fall back on to remain useful if his body starts to go.

Like the Letang extension, the landscape and trajectory of the Pens necessitated this deal.  The pressure on the Pens to win another Cup is enormous, and the Pens' best chance to do that this year or next is with Pascal Dupuis.  Whatever the consequences of this deal are in 3 or 4 years can be dealt with in 3 or 4 years.  Dupuis-Kunitz-Crosby was the best line in hockey last season, and there's no reason it can't be the best line in hockey again next season.  You don't let that walk.

Dan Bylsma will coach Team USA

The other choices were Peter Laviolette, who might not be that good of a coach, and John Tortorella, who just got fired by the Rangers and is an enormous asshole in public, thereby disqualifying himself from the honor of representing his country on the international stage.  Bylsma was a no-brainer.

This is now the second time that Laviolette and Tortorella were passed over for a job in favor of Dan Bylsma -- you'll recall that both guys were out of work when the Pens tapped DB to replace Michel Therrien and there were reports that both were interested in the Pens job (as we discussed here).  The world awaits whether Laviolette and Tortorella will be passed over for the assistant coach positions, or whether Team USA will do the gutless thing and pick them.

Alex Ovechkin makes the All-Star team twice

If you missed it, here is the quick summary of what happened:  The Professional Hockey Writers' Association, consisting of approximately 180 of the most important people on the continent, selected Alex Ovechkin as first-team All-Star right wing and as a second-team All-Star left wing.  Apparently the NHL kept Ovechkin listed as a left winger even after he switched to the right side early in the season.  (In a related story, Alex Rodriguez's lawyer is considereing the "switched to the right side" defense for his client in the Biogenisis case).  The PHWA had to send out a memo to its members that Ovechkin should be considered a right winger for awards purposes.  Nevertheless, 45 writers voted Ovechkin a left wing, enough for him to earn a spot at both sides.  Read about it here for more clarity.

What makes this so embarrassing is not that people voted for Ovechkin as a left wing (the PHWA's procedure seems terrible), but that the PHWA or the NHL didn't just step in and say, "Oops, our bad.  We sent out a late memo and his position was listed as LW on the NHL site so we apologize for the lack of clarity.  But because he won first-team RW anyway, we'll just throw out his LW votes and everyone wins."  There is not a single person in the world, other than maybe Ovechkin, who would have objected to this idea.  By allowing Ovechkin to be nominated twice, the NHL and PHWA created a problem out of nothing.

Our official position: IT'S THE ALL-STAR TEAM WHO CARES.

Ray Shero's luster

Ray has lost a little bit of his "In Shero We Trust" luster over the past few years, but here's why he's one of the best GM's in the league: he doesn't do anything crazy, and he rarely overpays.

The Iginla-Morrow-Crankshaft moves were risky, but they were calculated and well-timed risks.  That they didn't result in a Cup doesn't necessarily make Shero less of a GM -- it means those risks didn't work out.  Sometimes when you split aces you lose both hands.  Eventually you go broke, but not yet.

The Malkin, Letang, and Dupuis extensions are also calculated risks that might not work out as well as we want them to in 4 years, but it doesn't mean they aren't risks worth taking.  Letang and Dupuis have reasonable cap hits.  Malkin's $9.5M cap hit is higher than it should be (he probably should be at $8.7M with Sid), but at least it's overpaying for Evgeni Malkin, not David Clarkson, or Mark Streit, or Zach Parise.  Worst case scenario is you're getting $7M in production from Malkin -- but it's still $7M in production.

Where Shero is most susceptible to criticism is with the draft and developing young players.  Other than Beau Bennett, who is promising but far from a sure thing, is there any other forward prospect in the Pens' system with a reasonable chance of cracking the lineup and making an impact this season?  And all we hear about is the Pens' plethora of young defensemen ... but can we actually see that start to bear some fruit?  Shero has rightfully been aggressive in trading away draft picks and prospects for win-now players because the Pens are a win-now franchise.  But he's also drafted and acquired a lot of players.  It's time for them to play.

We should know who this is.

Three more years of Chris Kunitz means three more years of tweets about his Hands. Plus other news...

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

Before we get into what is shaping up to be an extremely busy few weeks of wheeling and dealing in the NHL, a quick comment on the Stanley Cup Finals.  The Blackhawks are as deserving of a champion as there could be.  They were the best team wire-to-wire, kept it together in the face of a meltdown against Detroit, and did what the Pens couldn't do against Boston -- weather the storm of their own frustrations long enough to allow the law of averages to take over and Rask to let in a few goals.  As much satisfaction as it brings us to have seen Boston collapse in such a heartbreaking manner -- and it brings us A LOT of satisfaction -- there are no "what ifs" for the Pens.  The Hawks were the best team.  Certainly better than the Penguins.

In other news...

- The Pens have agreed to a 3-year extension with Chris "Hands" Kunitz (we call him Hands because he has terrible hands at times, but at other times they are soft as baby thighs).  He will have a $3.85M cap hit, which is basically just his current contract ($3.725M) plus tuition to send his kids to Shadyside Academy.

We were preparing to write a post making the case that the Pens should seriously consider trading Chris Kunitz, especially if the team gets a legit top-6 forward what seems like an increasingly likely Letang trade.  But there's also a very strong case to be made that this is a smart extension.  He has been a very productive player with the Pens -- he finished seventh in the league in scoring, and was a PLUS 30 in only 48 games.  It's a reasonable price for Hands.  He also has proven chemistry with Sid and Geno, which isn't as easy to find as it should be.

Hands.

Hands is a good player and he's easy to root for.  Can't have too many of those guys.

- The Lightning are going to buy out Vinny Lecavailer's contract, meaning Vinny is going to be a free agent.  The Mike Ribeiro replacement in Washington?

- Lots of talk out there about the Leafs having interest in Kris Letang or maybe Kris Letang having interest in the Leafs.  It's not really a story if the Leafs are interested in Letang, as every team in the league has to be at least somewhat interested in Letang, including the Pens who it seems are wisely still trying to find a way to sign the guy.  We've all talked ourselves into him being traded as if it were a foregone conclusion, but if he's willing to stay for a reasonable cap hit ($7M or less), then the best move is to lock him up.

But if that doesn't happen, and our hunch is that he will be traded, then the ultimate feather in GTOG's cap will be when he's traded to Toronto for the exact package we proposed in Day 1 of Kris Letang trade week.  It is going to happen.

- Pens are making a qualifying offer to Tyler Kennedy, just because that's what you do if you don't want an asset to walk for nothing.  TK is always going to be one of those guys who sucks when he's playing, but who you desperately need in the lineup when he's not playing.  It feels like it might be time for him to move on, but there are worse options to get 13 minutes a night on the 3rd line.

Remember the guy who pleaded guilty to electronic voyeurism and got beat up by Joe Vitale after Peter Laviolette called Joe Vitale 'gutless'? That guy's on the Pens now.

The Pens traded Alex Grant to Anaheim for Harry Zolnierczyk, a name that will ring a bell for either of two reasons: 1) the electronic voyeurism situation; or 2) the time he withstood a beating from Joe Vitale in the game after Peter Laviolette called Joe Vitale gutless for hitting Danny Briere.



We have no idea where he will fit in the lineup, but we do know the lineup will be the Wilkes-Barre lineup.

Kris Letang Trade Week, Day 1: The scene is set for a blockbuster, so let's throw out 5 crazy hypothetical trades. Day 1, Toronto

By GTOG Staff

In our acclaimed season recap podcast, we made the case that the Pens had to at least try to sign Kris Letang to an extension.  He is maddeningly frustrating, but can also be terrifyingly good.  He gives the Pens the best chance of winning the Cup next year and even if he eats up too much of the cap 3 or 4 years from now, he will still be a tradeable asset if/when the Pens develop another guy who can play 22+ minutes a night.  (Watch for the negotiations about whether Letang gets a no-trade clause.  He may really want one.  The Pens would be nuts to give it to him).

This is exactly what Shero should do to Letang's agent if he asks for a NTC

A fair price would be 8 years for $56 million with an average annual cap hit of $7 million.  Expensive, but you have to pay for quality.  Though there is uncertainly about how much the cap will rise after its initial drop next season, most are very bullish, meaning the contract could be easier to digest over time.

Is it affordable now? Answering that, and the first of five hypothetical Kris Letang trades, after the jump...
Re-signing Letang would only come at a significant, and perhaps prohibitive, cost to the rest of the roster. If the Pens extend Letang at $7 million/year, they'd have around $45 million tied up in 8 guys heading into the 2014-15 season (this assumes re-signing Dupuis at ~$4 million/year, though we think that's on the high side).  Simon Despres would be the Pens' highest profile RFA heading into that off-season.

For the sake of optimism, let's assume that the cap jumps back to what it is today ($70 million) entering '14-'15. The Pens would have approximately $25 million left over to pay 14 or 15 roster players, including Despres. That's about $1.6-$1.8 million per player, which means the Pens will either have a lot of league minimum guys or will round out the roster with a dozen Matt Cookes.  It's not terrible if you have a few guys under $1M, but it requires some guys to really outperform their salary, a kind way of saying that the coaching staff has to show some trust in the young guys and develop them.

Not the right strategy going forward.

What all this leads us to believe is not that the Pens must trade Letang, but that it's very difficult to imagine keeping both Fleury and Letang. Devoting $4-5 million total to goaltending rather than $7M would be a big relief.  If that doesn't seem like enough money for two goalies, consider: this season, the Bruins committed $4.375M to goalies, and the Blackhawks committed $3.81M.  It's hard to identify value in goalies, but Ray Shero makes a lot of money to do things that are hard.

[Not-so-quick tangent: One of these hard things is maintaining professionalism and a sense of the big picture when in front of the media, something Shero has handled very well.  Though not everyone is impressed.  Ryan Lambert of Puck Daddy, the troll of trolls, the incessant whiner who thinks he's smarter than everyone else even though he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald, the peddler of smug self-righteous paternalism who basically spends the entirety of his time complaining about how dumb hockey is, complained (surprising, right?) that Ray Shero gave Marc-Andre Fleury a "vote of confidence" during Shero's press conference.

Great point, Lambert.  The better thing for Shero to do would have been to say, "hey everyone, my goalie stinks and we are desperate to get rid of him, now make me a great offer!"  Fans can slam players with no repercussions; but it's the height of irresponsibility for a manager looking to maximize the value of a player to do anything other than publicly express support and appreciation for that player.  If Shero wants to get rid of Fleury (and he should), he has to pretend that he wants to keep Flower.  If Shero does end up keeping Fleury, whether by choice or because there are no takers for him, there is nothing to gain from a public humiliation.  We can only assume that if Lambert put his house up for sale, he'd title the Craigslist post: "SHITTY HOUSE IN TERRIBLE NEIGHBORHOOD FOR SALE!"

And finally, let's not forget that Shero and Fleury have worked together for 7 years and probably like each other personally -- you don't go out and rip someone publicly who you like.  Maybe this is hard for Lambert to understand (again, he once lost an argument to John Steigerwald), but it's also what makes the Penguins a destination franchise.  The Iginla and Morrow trades didn't work out on the ice, but they both chose to come to Pittsburgh because they wanted to play here.  We don't care that Lambert doesn't recognize the value in that. We're just glad Ray Shero does. End of tangent.]

This sets up what is likely to be a repeat of the Jordan Staal scenario: the Pens have a genuine interest in keeping the guy and make a competitive offer to do so.  If the player wants it, he stays.  If not, he's traded within a matter of days.

We'd be stunned if any of his kids' names didn't start with a K.

For the sake of wasting time, let's assume there's a trade.  What's the return?  We begin a week of exploring five unrealistic trades below, an exercise we embark on because we enjoy hockey and the NHL, not because we think these trades would actually happen.

Keep in mind:

1) Letang will only count $3.5 million against the cap this coming season, making him one of the league's best bargains in 2013-14.  His contract expiration is also well-timed because while the salary cap is dropping next year (when Letang will be affordable for almost anyone) the cap can, and probably will, rise every year after as Letang gets more expensive.  If you're bullish on the growth of the salary cap, or if you have a lot of money scheduled to come off the salary cap after the 2013-14 season [cut to us pointing at the Sedin twins], Letang is the perfect asset.

2) Letang is better than Jordan Staal.  For all of Letang's faults, this is not even a close comparison.  Letang is one of the most physically gifted players in the league; Jordan Staal is a super-tall beast with a good hockey sense, but he also has hands of stone and scores only bi-weekly for long stretches of a season.  The Staal deal is a good starting point for a Letang trade, but the Pens have to get back more than prospects and the Brandon Sutter of The Blueline.

3) Trading Kris Letang has the potential to become the worst move of Ray Shero's career.  The potential downside of trading Letang far outweighs the potential upside.  Although Letang is actually a little bit older (26) than you'd think given his on-ice immaturity, there's still exponential room for growth.  It might be as simple as getting him a new coach that can tighten the reins [cut to us pointing at Mike Babcock] to get more Good Letang and less Shout-Go-F-Yourself-At-The-TV-Letang.

Hypothetical Trade #1: The Toronto Maple Leafs

Toronto gets: Kris Letang
Pittsburgh gets: James Van Riemsdyk, Jake Gardiner and a #1 pick (21st overall)

Why it makes sense for Toronto: They get a marquee guy who plays an attractive style of hockey; makes them even faster and an even tougher match-up for any team in the East; takes offensive pressure off of Dion Phaneuf thereby freeing him up to destroy more people in open ice; Letang is insurance if the Leafs plan to let Phaneuf walk as a UFA after the coming season; Letang still has upside.

Why it makes sense for Pittsburgh: JVR is super-talented and a presence in front; he has a reasonable contract at $4.25M/year through 2018, meaning the Pens would have a top-4 of Sid, Geno, Neal, and JVR locked up for the next 5 seasons; though JVR hasn't shown consistent production, he did have 32 points in 48 games last season so he might very well be on the verge of breaking out like James Neal did 2 years ago; Gardiner had a rocky regular season but got rave reviews in the playoffs and was even compared to Scott Neidermayer by Joffrey Lupul; Pens get back into the first round (and maybe take a goalie?); Gardiner is a RFA after this season so the Pens could probably lock him up at a very reasonable $2-$4M/year price tag over the next 2-3 years rather than the $7M they'd have to give Letang.

Why it wouldn't happen: The Leafs made a very similar deal for Phil Kessel -- they gave Boston a 2nd overall pick (Tyler Seguin), a 9th overall pick (Dougie Hamilton), and a 32nd overall pick (Jared Knight).  This proposed trade would be similar -- JVR was 2nd overall, Gardiner 17th overall, and Toronto's 1st rounder this season is 21st overall.  The Leafs may be hesitant to give up another 3 pieces -- especially ones who they already know are pretty good players -- in exchange for just one guy because they're already trending up without Letang.

From the Pens perspective, the key is how quickly Gardiner can develop and even if the Pens are really high on him, there would still be too much uncertainty on the blue-line this coming season.  In any deal that unloads Letang's erratic play, the Pens need some steadiness in return. Gardiner may become that, but he also may be too uncertain this coming season.

Like the Staal trade, this move would only be the start of the broader strategy, as the Pens would still need more defense.  The Pens could scour the free agent market, the buyouts, or maybe move one of their perpetually-discussed prospects to get another D-man who can eat up some minutes and bodies.  Or they could follow up this trade by moving the one person this deal would make most expendable:

Wave goodbye to Hands? Noooooooo!!!!

Dan Bylsma's awkward embrace of Fleury: What's going on here?

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

[Click here for our podcast and post recapping the end of the Pens' season]

The landscape around the Pens is a real mess right now.

It's about to get real weird.

Dan Bylsma held a press conference yesterday and talked confidently about Marc-Andre Fleury in an exchange that was either sanctioned by the Pens' top brass or was an outright act of insubordination.

Said Bylsma, per the Post-Gazette:

"Marc-Andre Fleury is our No. 1 goalie."
"He's the No. 1 goalie for this franchise, and he will be going forward."
"Marc-Andre Fleury is a guy who's going to come back to our team [next season] and he's going to be the No. 1 goalie. He's going to be our franchise goalie, this franchise's goalie.  Marc-Andre Fleury is going to go back in net. He's going to take the net. He's going to be the No. 1 goalie. He's going to play great. There's no question about that. And he's going to win a lot of hockey games for this team next season. He'll have that opportunity in the playoffs again when this team gets there."

And regarding Tomas Vokoun:

"Tomas, I don't think, is in any different boat than he was when he came in here for last season. He's a guy who makes our goaltending tandem a very good one. He's going to play games for us, big games for us. He came in and did for us exactly what we signed him for last year. Next year, he's not going to get that opportunity [to become the starter] because Marc-Andre Fleury's going to be in net winning hockey games."

What the hell?  Read on for our quick thoughts...

Dejan Kovacevic rightly noted the absurdity of Bylsma's position, both on the substance of what he said and on the mere fact that he said it given that Bylsma is, you know, not the general manager.

But Ron Cook, being Ron Cook, decided to come out in full-throated support of Bylsma, suggesting that the Pens give him an extension this summer because it wasn't Bylsma's fault the Pens lost and hockey coaches too often get a raw deal.

It's a lot to digest on this Monday morning, so let us make just two quick points:

1) Even putting aside the highly questionable merits of Bylsma guaranteeing Fleury the top goalie spot next season (something we will discuss at length in a podcast later this week), we don't want Fleury to come back next season for selfish reasons.  We'll spend 82 games waiting for the implosion.  When Flower gets some 18-save shutout against Tampa over Thanksgiving weekend next season, are we supposed to think that means everything will be OK come late April?  He feels like a ticking time-bomb.  A $5 million suicide vest.

2) We're still sorting through our own thoughts on whether the Pens should retain Bylsma, but we're not operating on the faulty assumption that the following two statements are mutually exclusive: Dan Bylsma is a good coach, and the Pens need to fire him.  Both can be true.  There is no shortage of candidates for blame for the Pens' four straight playoff disappointments, but debating the relative blameworthiness of the coach, players, and management doesn't address the only question that matters: How do the Pens ensure that the next four playoffs don't end the same way?

As we wrote about last week, NHL coaches have a shelf-life and Dan Bylsma will start next season already at double the average tenure of Stanley Cup winning coaches since 1990.  Maybe he's outlived his utility in Pittsburgh.  Or maybe not.  But either way, yesterday certainly didn't help.

Podcast: Mike Colligan joins us to talk Penguins trade deadline

Mike Colligan of The Hockey Writers and Forbes SportsMoney joins us to dissect the Pens heading into the NHL trade deadline on April 3rd. What do the Pens need? What can they afford? Who is expendable? Who are realistic targets? What will Malkin and Letang's next contracts look like? This podcast gets deep.
 

We are switching to a new podcast host so it may be a while before the new feed shows up in iTunes. If the player above is not working, you can listen or download here.

A fresh look at the NHL Lockout: why term limits make sense, and other thoughts on Bettman, Fehr, make whole, mediation, and the next CBA

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

The NHL Lockout is an emotional time for everyone.  Here are some long-winded thoughts on where things stand today -- term limits, "make whole," mediation, length of the new CBA -- and how they might get resolved. (Almost all details are from stuff on Puck Daddy)

Here's Donald Fehr, upset that his assistant isn't reading his press-clippings loudly enough.

Term limit on contracts

The NHL's offer calls for a maximum contract length of 5 years, or 7 years if a team re-signs its own player.  The players proposed 8 years as a maximum length for contracts.

This is the one provision that probably makes the owners look the worst because it is a mechanism to protect themselves from themselves.  But it might not be that simple.  Even though it's the "owners" giving out these contracts, remember that the "owners" are not a single entity -- they are 30 different people with very different approaches.  When four or five dumb owners give out mega-deals, it drives the price up for everyone and the "smart" owners are left with no choice.  Just look at the Penguins.  Are any of us really confortable with Crosby having a 12-year, $104 million contract, or do we just convince ourselves that it makes sense because we know that's what he would get (at least) on the open market?  Would we really be excited to give Malkin a 12-year deal in 2014 through age 40(!), or would we just say we're OK with it because we know that's what it costs to keep him?

The NBA has 5-year maximum contracts because it became far too common for a guy to sign a mega-deal and not even live up to 50% of the expectations.  The NBA's 5-year maximum doesn't just protect owners from themselves; it also creates an incentive for the players to earn their next contract by not sucking after signing a mega-deal.

7 years, $70 million.  Does anyone know who this is?

That latter concern doesn't seem to have hit epidemic proportions yet in the NHL (save for Ovechkin, most of the precipitous declines we see from mega-deal players are entirely predictable from the outset) but term limits aren't some phony concern used as a negotiating tactic.  Just read the 22nd amendment.  And given how big of a motivating factor money can be -- the term "contract year" is proof of that -- it's not a surprise that the owners view term limits as a critical piece of any new CBA.  So important, in fact, that the NHLPA's proposal accepted the concept (albeit 8 years, not 5).

(Another interesting thing to note: When LeBron James is a free agent in 2014, the maximum length deal he can sign is 5 years.  When Phil Kessel is a UFA in 2014, he'll probably want a 12-year deal.  If Leafs owner Larry Tannenbaum grabbed Kessel by the neck and starting screaming at him, "YOU ARE NOT LEBRON JAMES!!!!! I don't think anyone would have a problem with that.  When you look at it that way, it makes 10+ year deals that much more ridiculous).

Much more after the jump...

All of this clashes, of course, with the principle that if a player wants to play somewhere for 12 years, and an owner wants to sign him, then why should anyone legislate against that relationship?  After all, the freedom to be stupid is a founding principle of this country.

James Buchanan: 15th President of the United States; legendary dumbass

This conflict could be partially resolved by something that's already floating around.  The owners want the 5/7 term limit AND the so-called 5% variance rule -- that is, the actual salary a player earns in any given year of his contract cannot vary more than 5% from year-to-year.  (The players are countering with something in the neighborhood of 25% variance). Though this provision is currently being presented as secondary to the 5-year term limit, in practice it would probably be very effective in limiting the term of contracts.

Consider the case of Zach Parise, who signed a 13-year, $98 million contract with the Wild this summer (still ridiculous).

Under a 5% variance rule with no term limit at all, what could he get?  Under his current deal, the last 4 years are $2M, $1M, $1M, respectively, so we can just lop those off under the theory, "Zach, you better have retired by then."  That means the real "value" of the deal is more like 10 years for $94 million (a cap hit of $9.4M/year).  That would essentially tie him with Oveckin at the highest cap figure in the league.  It's almost unfathomable that anyone would have signed Parise to a deal with a $9.4M cap hit AND $9.4M salary for 10 years.

"Not so fast."

If some team wanted to hand over $9.4 million in cash to a 38 year old Zach Parise, who had 69 points last year at age 28, at least they would suffer the consequences of it in the form of a huge cap hit and actual cash out of pocket.  This kind of stupidity wouldn't necessarily force the smart owners to do the same thing because there would be actual consequences to these terrible contracts.  Under the current system, every year a team tacks on at the end for $1 million dramatically reduces the consequences of the dumb deals by drastically lowering the cap hit.

The more likely scenario is that Parise wouldn't get a 10-year deal, but if he did, it would be for a lot less than $94 million.  And if that happened, it would be a lot less of a risk for the owner because, you know, it wouldn't be $94 MILLION FOR ZACH F'ING PARISE!  You might see him get a 5-year, $50 million contract which is arguably a fair price to pay for having a top-10(ish) player in his prime and is, not coincidentally, the maximum term the owners are offering in negotiations.  And don't sleep on the positive side effect of term limits, which is that he will be in another "contract year" at age 32.  It's good for the game when players are motivated.

Obviously Parise is just one example and what I'm saying may not even be right.  But the takeaway should be this: the 5% variance rule, or even a 0% variance rule (which would be better), is a strong disincentive to give ultra long-term deals.  The 3 years tacked on the end of Parise's contract save the Wild about $2 million/year under the cap.  That can buy you a lot.  It's what the Pens just paid for Tomas Vokoun.

The other element of the owner's proposal is that players could get 7-year deals if they re-sign with their current team.  I couldn't be more in favor of anything than giving players financial incentives to stay with one team.  As fans we will always cheer for the front of the jersey, but it's a lot more fun when you're used to the names on the back, for better or worse.  I want Claude Giroux to be a Flyer.

How to resolve this: The players have to cave on the 5% variance rule.  It is the best way to make contracts have real consequences, and will separate the good GMs from the bad.  The owners should up the max lengths to 6/8 to help the players save face in hopes of actually saving the season.  They could even go to 7/9, because a 7-year deal takes you from UFA at age 27 to age 34, when you aren't washed up yet.

"I beg to differ."

The "Make Whole" Provision

According to reports, the NHL had upped the "Make Whole" provision of its offer from $211 million to $300 million.  Assuming that the players' share of revenue drops from 57% to 50%, this is the money that would be used to make full payments on contracts signed before the lockout.

The players argue that morality is on their side on this issue -- they signed a contract, and they believe it should be paid out.  While it's impossible to argue with that on principle, one problem for the players, as we pointed out months ago, is that these contracts are under the umbrella of a larger contract -- the Collective Bargaining Agreement -- that is no longer in effect.  No need to rehash that analysis here, but suffice it to say that if the players are not "made whole," they won't be suing the owners for breach of contract.

My take: It's not my money, so it's hard to feel invested in this. I'm sure it pisses the players off, but it probably also pisses Ted Leonsis off that Alex Ovechkin is signed for $9.5 million a year through the year 2021 and is a 65 point scorer.

Mediation

Donald Fehr should stop the charade of asking for mediation.  Nothing that happens in mediation is binding.  Billionaire owners are not going to listen to a "non binding" mediator try to tell them what to do for the simple reason that they don't have to.  The only reason to do mediation is if it's so contentious between the parties that they can't even be around each other.  Which it wasn't, until Donald Fehr came back into the negotiating room.

Here's Donald Fehr, probably ruining something

Length of the new CBA

The owners want a 10 year CBA with an opt out after 8 years.  The players want an 8 year CBA with an opt out after 6 (that was recent movement -- before Thursday there were reports that they wanted a 5 year deal).

Having lost a season only 7 years ago, this one is obvious.  The longer the better.  The NHLPA is worried about locking in these "concessions" for 10 years.  It's surprising that this would become a sticking point because the truth is that the vast majority of the players in the league today will not still be in the league in 8 years.  (I have no idea what this website is, or if it's remotely accurate, but it says that over half of all players play less than 100 career games).  So you have to think, who on the union side has a dog in this fight?

I guess young players who plan on being in the league for a long time have a stake in this, but they are 20 years old.  To think that they are positioning themselves for 10 years down the road is to ignore evidence like this 20 year old Red Wings' prospect dressed like a furry and getting arrested for DUI under Michigan's "super drunk" law.

Heavily invested in CBA negotiations.

So other than Donald Fehr's omnipresent ego, that leaves only one group: agents.  Particularly the big agencies.  They have the resources to weather a lost season if it means gains in the long term, even as far as 10, 15, or 20 years down the road.  Does a 35 year old Craig Adams care whether the new CBA is 8 or 10 years?  Or a 32-year old Brooks Orpik?

Speaking of a guy like Craig Adams...

I have no idea where he stands in these negotiations, but here's what I do know.  He is 35 and scheduled to make $675K this year.  After that, he's probably out of the league.  He will never get a 5 year contract and he will not be in the league for the next CBA.  He needs to make his money now because there are going to be hundreds of new players drafted in June gunning for his job.

I don't weep for the Craig Adams types around the league, but they are the ones who have nothing to gain and everything to lose from this dragging on endlessly.  Kudos to Donald Fehr (I guess) for keeping union cohesion up to this point, but when will what's been lost through missed paychecks eclipse what can ever be made up by continuing to negotiate?  We have to be getting closer to the place where unity fractures.  And, frankly, it should. The players are not going to get as much money as they want -- this CBA will be worse for them than the last one.  Do the Craig Adamses of the world want to lose their last year in the league so someone who is in high school today can get a 6th year on his contract in 2022?  That's not for me to say, but I certainly wouldn't fault any player for saying "drop the puck."

It will undoubtedly suck for players to give back money on their current deals or not have the good fortune of signing a 13-year contract because they missed the 2012 free agency spending spree by a year.  But they should look at the bright side of things.  They get paid to play hockey for a living.  And that's pretty awesome.

NHL shrewdly allowing owners to talk directly with players; what it means for the lockout

By Finesse

Good scoop by Yahoo! Sports obtaining a memo from the NHL to its owners allowing them to discuss some aspects of the NHL's current proposal to end the lockout with players over a 48-hour period last week (with the required legal disclaimers, of course).

The NHLPA is upset by this tactic, which is understandable given that they have the difficult job of wrangling hundreds of players with vastly different opportunities and incentives.  For them, the entire function of the Fehr family is to be the filter through which the players evaluate (and reject) the owners' proposals.  When you lose the filter, you lose the ability to control the message your players receive.

It's too early to tell whether this will work for the owners or at least have the effect of chipping away at union unity, but it is in my mind a very shrewd tactic.

As a union, the NHL players clearly don't like "the owners."  But as individual players, they likely feel a lot better about "their owner," also known as the old white guy who has been writing them big checks and probably acts a little star struck when he's around them.  They're probably friends, or at least friendly.  And in some cases, they are even landlord and tenant.

This is what Artistry looks like when he's posing for pictures with his 3 year-old son.

The message from the owners is not changing, or at least it's not supposed to.  But the messenger is, and that matters.  If your girlfriend tells you that you have something in your teeth,  you get it out.  If the guy behind you at airport security tells you that you have something in your teeth, you end up on the No Fly List.

As we've said repeatedly, we don't care who wins the lockout.  It's not our money.   But the players have to know that they are going to "lose" this negotiation at some point, in the sense that they aren't going to get as good of a deal as last time.  The danger is that even though the players know this, the lockout will drag on because the players don't want to lose to Gary Bettman.  Might they be more willing to lose to Mario?  If he's allowed to text them, they may not have a choice.

Random NHL Lockout Thought: Part 1 of TBD

By Finesse

With the predictable NHL Lockout underway, the even-more-predictable self-victimization of the fans is in full effect.  As Artistry pointed out yesterday, we are not victims and we need not choose sides.  This experience will be like going to the DMV -- you know it's going to be miserable and you can throw as big of a tantrum as you want, but the chain-smoking woman in charge of getting you a parking permit is not foregoing her 15 minute break.  So you sit, and you wait.

Having said that, let's complain!

One of my personal pet peeves is when players in any sport accuse the owners of not abiding by contracts that they sign.  It happens most often in football where owners cut players at their leisure (or even just for fun), but it's been a recent talking point of the NHL players.  They argue that by asking for a rollback of salaries, the owners are not honoring the very contracts the signed.  Exhibit A: Brooks Laich.

(for the Twitter uninitiated, read the bottom Tweet first).

There is only one problem with Laich's position: He's talking about the wrong contract.

There is a contract that governs each Player Contract -- it's called the Collective Bargaining Agreement.  The CBA sets the terms of whether a Player Contract is "guaranteed" -- like contracts in real life -- or something less than that.   And when the CBA expires, the owners and players are free to bargain again over whether the next set of Player Contracts are guaranteed, or even whether current Player Contracts can be reduced.

Laich is right that it's his fault if he signs a bad contract; he's just talking about the wrong contract.  The bad contract that the players signed in the NFL and NHL is the respective CBAs, the ones that say players are stuck with their salaries but owners have some recourse to get out of them, you know, like when the CBA expires.

This isn't to pick on Brooks Laich.  He surely represents the sentiment of a lot of players.  But while it undoubtedly sucks for NFL players when they get cut or for NHL players when they are forced to take a rollback, that's exactly what is allowed under the contract they signed.  One that undoubtedly ended in a handshake.

A Message to Shane Doan and Mike Wallace

By Artistry

As we waited last summer for our prodigal son to announce his return to the scene of his greatest glory, we wrote a song about Jaromir Jagr.  While this summer we contemplated a new NHL dream team, we refreshed our Twitter feed once every 45 seconds for news about Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. Now we're tired. So very tired. And we have a message for a couple of guys still ruminating about whether to show up in Pittsburgh.

WE DON'T CARE.

This is probably just "Will he or won't he" fatigue, but I think my pulse actually slows when I hear Shane Doan is "intrigued" by the Penguins, or that they are "on his list."  Don't do us any f***ing favors, OK buddy?  You're 35-years-old, slow, and expensive.  Thanks for letting us know the Pens are still "in the mix," and that maybe, if fortune smiles upon us, you will visit.  You have been "in the mix" of things I don't care about for the last 15 years, you are still very much "in the mix" now.

Boy, doesn't this look exciting?!?!?!

Oh, what's that, contract talks have broken down with Mike Wallace? Oh no! Who is going to drop passes for the Steelers in December? How are we going to survive without signing a guy with 500 fewer catches than Larry Fitzgerald to a Larry Fitzgerald contract?  It's OK, Mike Wallace.  I'm sure the Steelers, who have never let a holdout dictate contract terms to them in the whole history of time, will make an exception for you.  Your agent is giving you terrific advice.  Tell him to keep up the good work.

Limas: "Did someone say dropped passes?"

That's enough for today. I could go on, but really, who has the energy?

What's next for the Penguins: How about trading for a winger?

By GTOG Staff

In the wake of pulling a losing draw in the great Zach Parise Sweepstakes of 2012 - which frankly isn't so bad unless you believe in giving $100 million contracts to players who probably won't sniff the Hall of Fame - the Pittsburgh Penguins are left with five legitimate Top-6 forwards.  Ray Shero may choose to try to fill out the Top 6 with Tyler Kennedy.  Alternatively, he could make a deal for one of like 170 other guys.

"Let's take a look at some of those 170 other guys."

Bobby Ryan, Rick Nash, and Alex Semin are all available, but they are over-priced, really over-priced, and Alex Semin, respectively.  If the Pens get any of those guys, our excitement will surely be tempered by the fact that we had to part with the assets and/or cap space necessary to get one of those guys.  So let's not talk about them.  Instead, we're going on a little bit deeper dive, past the shallow water where Glen Sather and Paul Holmgren fish and into Shero Trench.  5 potential targets, after the jump...

Given that the entire universe outside of GTOG has simultaneously reached unanimous agreement that the 11th commandment is "thou shalt never take Chris Kunitz off of a line with Malkin and Neal," we're looking for a winger for Sid, and we're working on a deadline - the 2013 trade deadline.  No rush, because this is for keeps.  Here's the game:  1) the price has to be right, i.e. we're not giving up multiple roster players and a top prospect for a 27-year-old who'll still be making $7.8M when he 35; and 2) we'll need a viable top-line wing on a team that may have some incentive to make a deal.  Let's play.

1) Ryan Clowe, San Jose Sharks

Clowe has averaged 54 points per season over the last 4 years on a successful team that's played in a lot of big games (mostly lost them, but still).  We have no idea whether Clowe would be available, but here's what we do know -- the Sharks are one of the highest spending teams in the league and Clowe is a UFA at the end of the season.  Ray Shero and his scouting staff have accumulated a plethora of exciting defensive prospects, or at least have convinced the media to push the notion that all of them are going to make the hall of fame.  But here's the thing about having 10 stellar defensive prospects: you can only dress 6.  If at some point it becomes clear that the Sharks can't or won't re-sign him...well, 8 or 9 stellar defensive prospects should be enough.  His cap hit this year is a very reasonable $3.625 million.

2) Chris Stewart, St. Louis Blues

This guy isn't under the radar anymore, thanks to this insightful analysis.  If you don't follow Mike Colligan on Twitter, you're missing out.

3) Nathan Horton, Boston Bruins

He had a concussion. And this is crazy.  But he's a beast.  So trade for him maybe?  Nathan Horton is a guy we've had our eye on for a long time.  A bull of a right wing with silky hands and a knack for finding the net in big moments, he has a chance to be Crosby's Kevin Stevens.  The Bruins have less cap space than any team in the NHL, and they need to take care of Seguin, Lucic, and Marchand, three core players who will all be RFAs next summer.  Horton has one year remaining on a $4M a year deal. What's that you say?  You're wary of making a play for a guy with a concussion history who just sat out the latter half of an entire season?  Ummmm....WE JUST GAVE SIDNEY CROSBY $100 MILLION.  Maybe we double down on Nathan Horton.

Soft tissue injury, maybe?

4) Alex Burrows, Vancouver Canucks

Burrows is a fan favorite in Vancouver (no idea if that's true but it sounds right) and the Canucks are perennial contenders so it may be hard to pry him away.  But if we just trade one of our great forward prospects ... oh, nevermind.

5) Jarome Iginla, Calgary Flames

The Flames have expertly maneuvered themselves into a position where they have one of the highest payrolls in the league with almost no chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They also have a general manager who gave Dennis Wideman a $26 million contract despite the fact that even Washington Capitals' fans knew enough last year to know that Wideman was terrible.  Iginla has a huge cap hit at $7 million, but if the Pens get him mid season that number is prorated.  An unrestricted free agent at the end of the year, Iginla has been the subject of trade rumors for years.  He may be 35 and his numbers may be on the (modest) decline, but we'd at least know he'd have chemistry with Sid.



Sure, you'd have to give up a lot of "prospects" to get him, but prospects are prospects for a reason -- they haven't done anything yet.  People fretted over losing Angelo Esposito in the Hossa trade.  We're not even sure he's ever played an NHL game.  Banners were pre-ordered to commemorate all of the 40-goal seasons Eric Tangradi was supposed to have.  We're not even sure he's ever scored a goal.  The Pens have two of the most valuable assets in the NHL -- guys with potential, and a lot of cap space.  And the Pens have THE two most valuable assets in the NHL -- Crosby and Malkin.  Time is now.

From the Band of Brothers, Happy 4th of July

By Finesse

The Pens didn't get Ryan Suter or Zach Parise and now Ray Shero is sitting on a pile of cap space with very few things worth spending it on.  As much as Parise and/or Suter would have helped the product on the ice this season, you'll have to forgive us for not being upset that we didn't add the 14th year to their contract to pry them away from the Wild.  Good luck in Minnesota, we'll be rooting for you in Sochi.

I'd wish everyone a Happy 4th, but that wouldn't do this day justice.  The only thing that can really capture the essence of this holiday is the most patriotic tweet and retweet since @GeorgeWashington wrote "R.I.P. Andy Griffith also I cant believe Anderson Cooper is gay God Bless America."

So Band of Brothers-ian

GTOG Podcast: Will Zach Parise ever decide?

An emotional night at GTOG headquarters as we discuss the never ending saga of Zach Parise. How much would he help the Pens? How much is he worth? Is Finesse on acid defending Alex Semin? Is Mrs. Artistry's printing ruining Artistry's focus? What about the rest of free agency? All that, and more. It's the GTOG Podcast.

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NHL Free Agency: A Recap of Nothing

By Finesse

We promised yesterday in our post about whether the Pens may have any interest in Alexander Semin that we'd have a major recap of Day 1 of NHL Free Agency this morning  But unless you want my recap of going to the gym, taking a nap, and watching 21 Jump St., or Artistry's recap of a wedding he attended there is nothing to talk about.  Here is the master list from TSN.

Surprisingly reasonable, for the most part.

Over the 2+ years of doing GTOG, we've learned when to save our energy.  Word is that Parise and Suter will be making their decisions today and, of course, it's Hometowns on The Bachelorette tonight.  We'll be recording two podcasts tonight (one hockey, one Raw Emotion), and hopefully throwing something up today when Suter and/or Parise make their choices (my prediction: Suter to Detroit, Parise to Minnesota).  Stay tuned.

Make sure to follow me and Artistry on Twitter for instant reaction to the news of the day.

NHL Free Agency: Could Alex Semin be the Pens' Plan C?

By Finesse

Imagine the following scenario: The Pens dance with Ryan Suter and Zach Parise all day today but can't get a deal done with either.  The guys from TSN are tweeting that Minnesota is heavily pursuing the pair, but you can't sleep on Detroit.  Rob Rossi is tweeting vague things to make himself sound smart but that he can't be wrong about like, "Hearing there may be a surprise team in the Parise hunt."  Shane Doan re-signs in Phoenix.  Paul Martin gets traded.  Hudler and Samuelsson get $5 million dollar contracts, sending Artistry into anaphylactic shock.  Sunday night comes around and the Pens have signed...no one of consequence.  And at lunchtime on Monday, the following headline pops on your screen: "Parise and Suter spotted at Detroit airport.  Wings call presser for 4:00 today."

Hossa-Lite

Pop quiz, hot shot.  The Pens have $15million in cap space, Deryk Engelland as their 4th best defeseman, and Eric Tangradi may be on the second line.   What do you do?

Don't shoot him in the leg.

Let's add another layer to the story.  Alex Semin's agent spends all day Sunday asking teams for a mega-deal in the Zach Parise range, and after the GMs stopped laughing they moved on to their own Plan Bs.  The teams needing to hit the cap floor have reached it.  Semin has no one to go to prom with and the Pens have an empty Hummer limo and a box of wilting corsages.

Is it possible?

The chances of all that happening are close to 0%, given Shero's awareness that he better have a viable Plan B and the fact that, enigmatic as he is (<-- did Finesse just call a Russian player enigmatic?  OMG  HE'S RACIST!!!!!), Semin will have suitors this summer.  But what if it does go down like that?  What if Semin is out there and all the Pens have is a big wad of cash with no one to give it to?

Alex, how about 1 year, $7 million.  Is that something you might be interested in?

If, and only if, today and tomorrow unfold exactly like that, there are 3 simple reasons why I'd offer Semin a one-year contract: 1) as long as Dale Hunter isn't his coach, the guy can score goals; 2) with $15 million and no one to spend it on this year, a one-year deal like that would not hurt the Pens' cap going forward; and 3) sorry for bringing this up, but he's a right-handed shot and would be working with left-handed centers...

Remember when we thought that was funny?

I'm not advocating this, and I'm not saying it would be easy to stomach.  But I have a strong stomach.

Should have been 2 minutes for holding the stick

We'll have a huge post tomorrow with reaction to all of today's dealings.  Make sure to follow me and Artistry on Twitter.  Go Pens.