Warm Front

You see the increasing clouds aloft...these are associated with an approaching warm front aloft...one associated with a vigorous offshore system (see sat pic). But that system..and its strong winds will not make landfall in the NW and strong winds will not reach our interior.
With low pressure offshore and high pressure inland, strong offshore (easterly) flow has developed west of the Cascades. So I would expect breezy conditions as one approaches the passes today--on I90 east of North Bend. The Seattle profiler shows the easterlies aloft...and such flow often produces warm temperature over the lowlands...so I expect temps in Seattle to surge into the 50s today.
The precipitation should hold off until this evening...so today should be a fine one, expect for some high and middle clouds. Then tomorrow we will see considerable clouds and some showers...and mild temps on the south side of the warm front (50s).
The weather pattern this week is a familar one..with a major low/trough over the Pacific (see sample upper level chart on Sunday). Low centers will spin up the coast offshore and most of the precipitation will head into California..where they need it. A boring collection of clouds and showers for us through Wednesday, after which the models indicate the chance of a cool down again. But I will wait before talking about that...

PS: For those interesting, I will be on KCTS on Sunday at 7 PM, answering weather questions (see link at right). Also I wanted to note the NW weather workshop on March 20-21st for those interested...it is open to all, but you should register in advance--but this does include technical talks (see link to right).

Week 42: Pageant of the Transmundane

This story was just so Simpsonriffic, it has to be the lead for this Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award. Pickpockets in Somalia threw a feral cat into a crowd to make stealing from a group of worshippers outside of a mosque. Eleanor Abernathy and Jessica Lovejoy were not found at the scene.

Anyway, the winning entry this week comes from the excellent pop culture blog, Popped Culture. Jeremy has really stepped things up this week as he had two entries that were more than worthy of this award this week.

But since there were two worthy entries, I went with the one that initially wowed me. Therefore, the entry which has won the award this week, was simply entitled Rise and Fall of the Nazi Dinosaurs. It is stop motion animation, and the person who made it should be proud as it turned out to be a compelling bit of Youtube cinema.

And to recognize this achievement, well, naturally a picture of Homer Simpson as a World War II soldier will suffice. I could have went with Homer sneezing in a T. Rex's face from the Treehouse of Horror segment "Time and Punishment", but I thought this image suited the whole scene a lot better. After almost 20 years of shows and fan made homages, finding images for this contest is getting increasingly easier.



Congrats Jeremy on winning this award yet again.



The rules of this little contest: Every week I will be selecting one blog post that I have seen from the vast reaches of the blogosphere to bestow with the Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award for being one of the freakiest(in a funny way) things I've seen or read during a 7 day period. It doesn't necessarily have to have been written during the week, I just had to have encountered it. That means that if you find something interesting and repost it like a movie or whatever, if I saw it at your blog first, you get the prize. Of course, creating your own content is also a very good way to win.

Now, if you see a post that you think is worthy of this illustrious prize, just drop me a line at campybeaver@gmail.com and we'll see if we can't get your suggestion up and award-ready while giving you some credit and a link to your own blog.

Tags: homer simpson, pageant of the transmundane, jessica lovejoy, eleanor abernathy, popped culture, jeremy barker, rise and fall of the nazi dinosaurs, time and punishment, treehouse of horrors

Friday Favorites: Things I'd like to see in a zombie movie

When I wrote this, I hadn't seen a particular movie which sort of touches upon one of my ideas, so just sort of ignore it.

---
How come no one, when they are out of ammo, tries to bash a zombie's teeth out so they can no longer really bite or kneecap them so they can't walk anymore? Seems like a natural solution to the problem?

How about when zombies eat brains, they actually improve in health(so to speak), or get smarter(because really, that would make as much sense as zombies to begin with).

Or how about having a movie where there is an actual zombie culture and society which is parallel to our own(shopping malls excluded of course)?

4 words: Soylent Green for Zombies

Titles: The Zombie Crusade: The Pope's greatest mistake, Zombie House(with an animatronic John Belushi of course), Zombie Surf Beach, Zombies vs. Pedophiles, Caged Zombie in heat(Fire BAD!), The Zombie Menace eats the Beverly Hills Buffet, Debbie Does Zombies, Saving Zombie Ryan, Zombie vs. Zombie(a touching portrayal of undead divorce, where til Death do you part was only the beginning), Zombies of the Pac-10, It's a zombie, zombie, zombie, zombie world; Young Zombies in Love and of course, Zombie Fight at the OK Graveyard

Tags: zombies, undead, animal house, saving private ryan, kramer vs. kramer, debbie does dallas, soylent green, brains, evil dead, grindhouse, toothless, cult films, horror

Good News

Some news:

(1) The Camano radar was fixed ...but unfortunately broke down again. Lets face it, this radar really doesn't break down very much..considering the constant rotation and movement of the antenna and the high-powered electronics.

(2) I had a nice talk with METRO technical and management people today. They promised that they are going to replace the servers of the bus track information system and this problem, which inconveniences hundreds or thousands of us unnecessarily.

(3) I learned yesterday, that partial support for a new coastal radar is in the 2009 Omnibus legislation (that has yet to pass). Thanks go out to Senator Maria Cantwell, who has spearheaded this. I have also heard from Senator Murray's office, which is also supportive. We aren't there yet, but we are making progress. So please keep letting your representatives know that this radar is needed. Today and yesterday convinced me more than ever of the importance of the coastal radar. Not having our own radar really made forecasting and understanding the weather difficult. I could not imagine being without it permanently...the current situation to our fellow citizens along the coast.

(4) The mountains have gotten a decent amount (roughly a foot) during the last week..which should make skiing far more palatable.

Tomorrow should be dry and the next weather feature will be a weak warm front late Saturday afternoon.

Samuel L. Jackson signs nine picture deal

I remember a few weeks back when I was getting on my high horse about the fact that the producers of the Iron Man sequel were dicking around Mickey Rourke and Samuel L. Jackson about money.

Well, half of that equation has been resolved.

Jackson has signed a deal with to appear in 9 Marvel movies as Nick Fury.



NINE! Damn... that is commitment. Of course, I think they sort of had to pony up because let's just take a look at one of the more recent iterations of Nick Fury.



Looks familiar, doesn't it? And let's not forget how bad this road could have gotten...



*shudder*

Tags: samuel l jackson, david hasselhoff, mickey rourke, iron man, nick fury, shield, ultimate, s.h.i.e.l.d., marvel ultimate alliance

Snow Blindness

It is really frustrating to be meteorologically blind--with the NWS radar covering western WA out of commission. It makes it hard to understand what is happening and to diagnose the situation--something those living on the coast have to deal with all the time.
There was quite a bit of snow yesterday and last night, depending on where you are, and the amounts were very variable. The two biggest snow dumps in the lowlands were near Bellingham and NE of the Olympics (Port Angeles to Sequim), where some locations received up to 10 inches or so. Bellingham has the Fraser outflow, with air accelerating SW as the trough of low pressure moved through yesterday. As air flowed around the low it rose up over the Fraser outflow giving snow. Later as the low moved south the Fraser outflow pushed southward toward the Olympic peninsula...rising on the terrain and causing snow on its NE flanks and adjacent areas (even the usual dry spot Sequim---see image for surface chart at 2AM).
There were some snow showers last night over Puget Sound, and they dropped very variable amounts of snow..something that is evident on the DOT cams. Some places have only a dusting, while others...like in central Puget Sound from Seattle to Bellevue...received 2-4 inches. I have three on the ground in my home in NE Seattle.
The KING-5 radar (which is running in degraded mode) shows some showers over Puget Sound producing a few light snow showers and the 6 AM observation revealed weak convergence over the south (northerly wind on north side, SW winds to the south) that is helping to maintain them. These showers should weaken over the next few hours and skies should begin to open up. The first decent visible satellite picture is now available (see attached)..and you can make out the clouds and shower over Puget Sound and clearing to the north and south. The coast is clear and sunny. Anyway, the worst (and for some the best) is over.


NOTE: Metro's Bus Tracker software AGAIN is overwhelmed and not functioning during a snow event. After everyone complained in December. Someone really needs to be relieved of duty in Metro's IT department and those in Metro that oversee this important application. When we most need to see where the buses are, the system fails. Just incompetence.

Update

The worst is probably over now for most..particularly those living near Bellingham. The air is now cold enough for snow throughout the region (see temps from profiler over Seattle). The band I was worried about it my afternoon note has moved through central and northwest Washington and we have a few showers remaining...but nothing serious. The latest snow total forecast map ending 4 PM tomorrow is attached --indicating the rainshadowing (or snow shadowing of central Puget Sound), with SW and NW Washington getting most of the action. Fraser River outflow is still occurring, with cold air exiting the gap, and strong NE winds gusting to around 30 mph. The perfect place to send that Foreman-guy from KING TV...the one that is always in the big parka.
Anyway, there will be a few snowshower now, but no serious accumulation...and then things will dry out tomorrow.

A Joke that was built to last

Some jokes a comedian can run with for a lifetime. This is one of those jokes.

Pablo Francisco has been running with this joke forever. A lot of people do Don LaFontaine, but he really worked a particular angle with the joke that made it his. I remember seeing him do this joke (Little Tortilla Boy) back on the Jerry Lewis Telethon over a decade ago, and every time I would see him after that, he was telling the same joke.

I don't think this one will ever truly disappear.

Tags: don lafontaine, pablo francisco, little tortilla boy

Snow in Bellingham and Elsewhere

The cold front has moved through and cooler air is now spreading over western Washington. Northeasterly winds have pushed through the Fraser River Valley and associated cooler, drier air has made its way into Bellingham and vicinity. Cold enough that snow is occurring at Bellingham Airport. (Look at the attached figure showing observations at Bellingham..time is in UTC (GMT). You can see the change from rain to snow and falling temps as the wind shifted to the NE.

Snow is also falling at Quillayute on the coast. Right now it is still to warm for snow over Puget Sound, but that will change by this evening. A big problem is that the NWS weather radar at Camano Island is down and won't be back up until tomorrow at the earliest...thus, we are somewhat blind to local precipitation details. The KING 5 radar is up and available on their web site.
The million dollar question is lowland snow. The temperatures will be cold enough for snow everywhere by this evening. The only question is moisture. The problem for snow lovers is the things will dry out tomorrow morning after the upper trough over us now noves through. The winds approaching the coast are now southwesterly...leaving much of the central sound rain shadowed right now, with the convergence zone over Whidbey Island into Bellingham (see Canadian radar image). So at this point the focus of snow will be north of Everett...and later as the trough and associated low moves south tomorrow the focus of the snow will be south of Olympia. There could be some snow showers around Seattle, but no more than an inch. And lots of snow in the mountains. The 24-h snow forecast from the high resolution model is attached.

I really wish I had a coastal radar now to see more into a band that is now making landfall.. perhaps in the future.

Extreme incentives

We are fond of setting incentives in our household for various activities. Just this week, we decided to make a push on memorising times tables. It needed an incentive on the basis that it was a pretty mindless activity that was hard to justify on any real academic basis but it was just convenient to have these things memorised for the future. The deal was: learn them this week or no Survivor. Suffice it to say, we went through much anger and bargaining before we got to resignation. Of course, we have a few days left to see if it worked.

I wondered if this might have been a bit much until I read this today from Ian Ayres:

When my 7-year-old daughter said she desperately wanted a dog, I told her (in a twist on another Obama story) she could have one if she published an article in a peer-reviewed journal.

Wow, that isn't necessarily attainable when people have to publish to keep their job. That said, apparently it worked! Here is the paper.

Our dog is named Cheby (Shev) in honor of a statistician.

Of course, when you think about it, this seems like an easy incentive compared with those Obama kids who had to get their Dad elected as President in order to get a dog.

Richter and O'Brien a team once again

As you've probably read on every blog today (and even some yesterday), Andy Richter is returning to the warm, gingery embrace of Conan O'Brien when he takes over The Tonight Show in June.

Richter is being tapped for the announcer's job on the show, and I know some of you likely think that is a demotion from his previous work with O'Brien (though I think most of us wish his work on Andy Richter Controls The Universe was better appreciated in its time).



But the way I see it is, wasn't Ed McMahon also the announcer of The Tonight Show with Johnny Carson, and he had a huge hand in how that show progressed?

It is going to be sweet. Really sweet I tells you.

Tags: andy richter, ed mcmahon, conan o'brien, johnny carson, tonight show, andy richter controls the universe

Announcing the Native Client Security Contest

By Henry Bridge, Native Client Team

Exploits, bugs, vulnerabilities, security holes -- for most programmers these terms are synonymous with fire drills and coding all-nighters. However, for the next 10 weeks, the Native Client team is inviting you to bring them on! We're challenging you to find security exploits in Native Client. Sign up today for the Native Client Security Contest, you could win up to $ 2¹³ , as well as recognition from renowned security researchers.

Before getting started, you must complete the registration process for yourself or your team. Then, you can grab the latest build of Native Client, attack it to find security holes, and submit the ones you discover. You get credit for bugs that your team reports first. If another contestant submits a vulnerability before you, or we publish a fix before you report it, well then... you'll have to keep looking!

At the end of the contest, all entries will be reviewed by a panel of academic experts, chaired by Edward Felten of Princeton University. They will select the five eligible entries with the most high-impact bugs, and these winners will receive cash prizes, as well as earn bragging rights. For more details, please review the contest's terms and conditions.

Registration is now open and the contest will run until May 5th. Sign up today to start reporting exploits as soon as possible.

Happy bug hunting!

Uncertain Snow in Seattle

Not an easy forecast. A cold front will move through tomorrow...bringing rain showers with its passage. Temperatures will cool behind it, and by later tomorrow evening the air mass will be cold enough for lowland snow, particularly where there is significant precipitation . The problem is that Puget Sound will be at least partially rain shadowed (or snow shadowed in this case). There doesn't seem to be much evidence of a convergence zone developing over the central Sound. Another issue is that there really won't be that much precipitation in the cold NW flow.Clearly, there will be far higher chances of snow showers south of Olympia and over NW Washington.
So to summarize...frontal passage tomorrow with some rain. Show showers later tomorrow evening and Thursday morning, not amounting to much over Puget Sound, but perhaps dropping an inch or two in some locations south of Olympia and north of Everett. Not a big deal, really. But we need to watch the model run tomorrow...if the flow was more westerly, allowing a convergence zone to form over the central Sound, it could be more interesting.

Tooth fairy lies

Selfish Mom neglected her tooth fairy duties. [HT: Motherlode]

Jakie lost a tooth yesterday morning. It started bleeding at breakfast, and when he brushed his teeth a few minutes later, out it came. He put it in a plastic bag. We talked about it all day, and when he went to bed he put it under his pillow. And that was the last I thought about it.

Until this morning, when I got out of the shower and my husband informed that the tooth fairy hadn’t come. Shit.

I went downstairs, and Jake was in a ball on the couch pouting. I asked him what was wrong, and he started crying and said that the tooth fairy hadn’t given him any money.

I told him that that had happened to me a couple of times when I was his age. I told him that sometimes so many kids lose their teeth in one day that the tooth fairy can’t make it to all of the pillows, but that when that happens she usually gives a bonus dollar. At least that got him to stop crying.

This reminded me of one of my first posts on tooth fairies. Here is an extract:

On Thursday, our daughter lost her sixth tooth. On Friday morning, she woke up to tell us that the tooth fairy hadn't come. And then trouble ensued.

My initial reaction to this sad news was to go up and check her 'tooth box' carrying money in my hand in a vain attempt to suggest that she had just missed it being bleary eyed in the morning. This plan was aborted when I opened the box to find, well, a tooth. Obviously, to take the tooth now would be a tad too obvious.

On to plan B; imaginative lying. We settled on, "obviously, lots of children must have lost teeth on Thursday and the tooth fairy is just one fairy and can do so much. She will be here tonight." Our daughter bought that and, indeed, when discussing the incident with a friend, it turned out the same thing had happened to him once. (We must remember to thank the parents!)

So there is a broad parental conspiracy at work. That is the key to lying. Make sure it is the same lie and everyone toes the line.

That said, we didn't include the bonus. Instead, in our household, we have floated the tooth exchange rate.

A Potential Cinematic Disaster of Epic Proportions

After a decent roundtable type discussion with Semaj over the weekend about crappy movies, we both discovered to our horror that there was a cinematic calamity that will engulf us all in 2010.

Uwe Boll is bringing a Wii Shooter to the big screen...

...a Wii shooter that has yet to be released. And one which has been described as, and I quote, "House of the Dead meets Crazy Taxi".

I think some of us remember the last time Uwe Boll and House of the Dead met in a dark alley in that grimy celluloid world of Hollywood.

The game and the cinematic epic trainwreck that will befall the movie going public in 2010 is called Zombie Massacre, which has one player drive a car while the other 3 shoot at zombies. If you are familiar with Wii gaming, you know that the games aren't the most in-depth narratively, which I guess will suit Uwe Boll's talents as a screenwriter just fine.

Now, before writing about this, I went looking for media surrounding this game. There are lots of videos from Resident Evil: The Umbrella Chronicles online, but there isn't any video of this particular title, being developed by 1988 Games, online anywhere.

Come to think of it, I haven't even seen a screenshot of the game either.

It has been in production since 2007, and by now, I thought we'd actually see something by now.

But recently, it was announced that the game would feature a celebrity.

DMX



You know, the rapper who not only made a film career out of working with such luminaries as David Arquette, Steven Seagal and Lou Diamond Philips, but who is working the whole criminal angle for all its worth, including an arrests for driving without a license and attempted car jacking.

Basically he is Ol' Dirty Bastard without the humor or charm. And he is the character who is supposed to be driving the car!

So if I have this straight, Uwe Boll optioned the rights to a game that hasn't yet been released which is somewhat similar to another game he made a horrific movie from and features an rapper/actor whose best days were behind them in every conceivable way.

But you know, with all those things working against it, it could turn out. I mean, there is always a one in a million chance that if you threw a bunch of crap in a bowl, you'd discover pure platinum in there, but I doubt it.

The game may end up being fun, but this movie is going to be DOA. And so much worse than Dead Or Alive as well.

Tags: zombie massacre, 1988 games, nintendo wii, uwe boll, 2010, doa, dead or alive, resident evil, umbrella chronicles, david arquette, steven seagal, lou diamond philips, dmx, ol' dirty bastard, odb, house of the dead, crazy taxi, semaj

Go beyond the free limits on Google App Engine

By Pete Koomen, Google App Engine Team

We just announced that developers can now grow their applications beyond App Engine's free limits that have been in place since it launched last year.

The pricing for resources beyond those free quotas is:

• $0.10 per CPU core hour.
• $0.10 per GB of incoming traffic and $0.12 per GB of outgoing traffic
• $0.15 per GB of data stored by the application per month.
• $0.0001 per email recipient for emails sent by the application

For more detail, check out the post in the App Engine Blog.

More SNOW?!&%$

There has been some hyping of wind in some media outlets...it will get breezy as low pressure moves north of us this afternoon...perhaps 15-20 mph sustained for a few hours in well-exposed locations, but no windstorm. The showers we have been getting has produced significant snow in the mountains (see image), and this will continue the remainder of the week. FINALLY, we are starting to rebuild the snowpack...and I expected 1-2 feet snowfall at pass level and above by Friday. So grease your skis now.
But I did want to note the threat of snow showers in the lowlands on Thursday...something the National Weather Service hasn't mentioned yet. I cold front will move trough around dinner time on Wednesday, bringing in much colder air (see image, sea-level pressure--solid lines, colors are temperature, blue and purple are coldest). A upper trough will move through behind the cold front providing upward motion. A surface low associated with it, is heading towards the snow "sweet spot" off of SW Washington, and a Puget Sound convergence zone may for Thursday morning (graphic). There should be some cold air moving SW through the Fraser River Valley. Finally, this mornings high resolution run is showing snow reaching the surface Thursday morning (graphic--which shows 24-h snow ending 4 PM Thursday) . There is substantial uncertainty...and considering the time of the year and marginal temperatures, we are on the edge of this, but there is a significant chance (perhaps as high as 50-60%) that some snow showers with some accumulation could occur on Thursday AM. So I hope our friends in Metro and various DOTs are keeping a sharp eye on this!


Finally, let me note I will be at Town Hall tomorrow night (Wed) at 7:30 PM talking about the science of local weather prediction. And at the same time Knute Berger will be talking in another room at the same venue about his book "Pugetopolis"--which includes "weather wimps" in the title.

PS: There have been several snow events during the last few days of Feb, first week of March. But if we don't get it then, the probably drops precipitously the second week of the month.

The Coastal Radar

The KIRO newspecial tonight hit the radar issue hard. It really is time we get this done. Virtually all sectors of the community agree..from the environmentalists, to the timber industry, to fishers, to the Port of Gray's harbor, to meteorologists, and almost everyone in between. The expense, although significant--4-10 million--is dwarfed by the costs of a single major storm or the savings--both in safety and economic--that the radar would allow. This is key infrastructure and it is shovel ready. NOAA is being given $600 million for infrastructure enhancements...surely this project deserves support from that. Senator Cantwell and Murry are supportive. Gary Locke, who will head the Dept of Commerce, surely knows why this hardwae is needed.
If you want to help, please contact our Senators and your local congressmperson....asking them to make this happen this year. Ted Buehner, the Warning Coordination Meteorologists at the Seattle NWS office, made the case better than I could on the KIRO show....this radar will save lives and property. It is outrageous that the wettest, most storm coastal area of the continental U.S. is the only location without a coastal radar. And for those of you who love weather...imagine being able to see the details of storms as they approach the coast!

Coming in faster

The band of precipitation is moving through now...and should be through by dinner time for most of the lowlands. About 3-6h faster than the model's indicated yesterday. Such timing errors are not unusual, unfortunately. Lack of detailed observations offshore is a major contributor to these errors. Another reason why we need a coastal radar.

My First Swag

I remember back when I received my first press release... oh, what heady times those were back in late 2006. And like the borderline narcissist that I am, I made it all about me.

Well, another one of those times is here. I am sort of like Kathy Griffin that way.

You see, I finally got my first swag. So it basically took almost 2 and a half years for things to progress from press releases to someone actually wanting to send me something.

I have a feeling aside from some review copies, this may be the last time this happens, because this post is going to burn that bridge.

I made sure that the woman at the E-PR firm knew beforehand that I was all about disclosure. She said that was no problem.

I don't think she knew how much disclosure there was actually going to be. Truth be told, I probably didn't know either.

Now, if you hadn't realized it by now, I am cheap. Really cheap. So naturally I leapt at the chance to sample some free as-of-yet unnamed Doritos. (The naming process is part of the Doritos Guru contest that pays 25 grand and 1% of the future net sales of that flavor).



I remember back at the beginning of my sophomore year of high school, I was sitting in a class and we were supposed to introduce ourselves to our fellow classmates and being the epic wit that I am, I stated that I had eaten so many bags of Cool Ranch chips over the summer that I met Jay Leno. That's how much I've enjoyed them over the years.

OK, it seemed witty at the time.

So naturally when offered free snack food, I grabbed it. I mean, it was the first swag I'd ever been offered (which means that no, I haven't been a paragon of blogging ethics and virtue over here, merely I had never been given the chance to take anything period).

Now here is the funny thing: they sent the chips and the media kit to me overnight by courier service. I don't know how much that cost, but I admire the effort.

If I was a little more full of myself, I'd say they went to all that effort because I am super important and influential. But I am not any of those things, so it seemed a little extravagant to me.

But in the end, perhaps it was worth it... after all, I did mention the contest they wanted me to talk about. So it is official. My price for talking about anything is now one dollar and 29 cents retail. But turning that much swag into a blog post having much more to do with me with just a small dash of the actual work that the swag was supposed to produce. That is priceless.

(Now I wonder when Mastercard is going to give me that buck 29.)

Tags: doritos, swag, mastercard, integrity, doritos guru, kathy griffin, contest

Tomorrow

Well, it looks like we will have a break in the weather tomorrow morning and afternoon, but later in the day the next system will start moving in (see the satellite picture). You see that swirling cloud mass off of California? That's it.
I show these picture a lot..so a word of explanation. This is an infrared satellite image taken by a geostationary satellite 35000 km above the surface. We get these pictures every 15 minutes. These satellite look at the earth in wavelength that the atmosphere is transparent (an atmospheric "window" in the biz). Basically, it is measuring temperatures...white indicates cool and dark indicates warm. Since temperature generally decreases with height, these images can tell us how how clouds are. And infrared pictures are available 24-h a day, unlike the visible imagery. These satellite pictures are the reasons why we always know where the big storms are now..compared to 50 years ago. In fact, the first weather satellite was launched in 1960...TIROS 1.
One of the major things I teach my students is how to be expert interpreters of such imagery...a key skill of a meteorologist. Humans are really excellent at pattern recognition, so after a few classes they gain quite a bit of skill. A frustration at time is to watch the occasional inexperienced TV weathercaster who points at the wrong thing on these images...generally one of the weekend folks. But I better stop before I get into trouble!

PS: Remember the KIRO TV weather special tomorrow night at 7 PM on the big December storm! I taped a segment on the coastal radar for it...we will see whether it made the cut.

Sunday Night Video: What's A Girl To Do

I found this video on the site GBH.TV during the week and it captivated me... so much so that I knew that it would be the Sunday Night Video tonight.

The band is Bat For Lashes, which is the alter ego of Natasha Khan. I know she looks surprisingly like Lily Allen in this video, but I've seen other pictures of her and it is only an illusion.

I am sort of reminded of the original version of The Wicker Man.

Tags: natasha khan, what's a girl to do, bats for lashes, lily allen, wicker man, gbh

A break

It is nearly impossible to time accurately the passage of rainfall bands accurately the day before..so it is time for what we call a "nowcast" in the business.

A band of precipitation is now moving through the central sound (see satellite and radar imagery at about 9 AM). The implication...there should be a major break this morning and early afternoon...so it will be a good time to get out there for recreation or gardening. Nothing really organized behind it...so this should be a decent afternoon. I will be heading to the NW Flower and Garden show at n0on to sign books....so I will have to hit my garden later...

Buck passing

A conversation:

"You lost your sports bag. That isn't good."

"True but it's not my fault."

"Really, whose fault is it?"

"Yours. You were the one who decided to have me. Had you not done that the bag would not have been lost."

And there began a line of logic that has led to a week of buck passing in our household created by what appears to be a deep existential understanding of moral attribution. This, of course, included an extensive discussion whereupon it was discussed whether it would be reasonable for me to similarly pass the buck for the aforementioned lost sports bag to my parents, their parents or a series of 300,000 generations to some ape in Africa. It was then decided that the ape really wouldn't care about issues of lost bags and so saddling them with that one was going to far. They would be content to pass the buck for all their current and future sins to me.

A later conversation:

"This dinner is terrific."

"Well, you can thank your daughter for it. Cooking it that way was her idea."

"Yes, you can thank me Daddy."

"I don't think so."

"Why not?"

"Well if I hadn't chosen to have you, then we wouldn't have had this great dinner. So I'm waiting."

"Thank you Daddy for this great dinner."

Her brother then started to object to this apparent lack of praise.

"No, it is good this way. I'll take not being at fault over not getting thanks any day."

My daughter had opted for full insurance in her typical risk averse way. I guess she only has half of what it takes to make a good investment banker.

Uncertainty II

Several of you have asked about forecast uncertainty...something I started to discuss yesterday.

The truth is that all forecasts are uncertain. That uncertainty increases in time. The amount of uncertainty varies by weather situation. Sometimes even a 3-4 day forecast is highly uncertain (like yesterday),while other times there is substantial forecast skill out 7-8 days. The fact that TV stations (and even the NWS) usually give single numbers for forecasts...particularly long-range ones is really crazy...we just don't have that kind of precision and skill. Forecasts are essentially probabilistic...and should be communicated that way. We should not forecast the temperature will be 64 in three days, but rather give the probabilities of various ranges.

This is a very active area of research and development right now...and the key tools are ensembles of forecasts. The old way is to run one computer simulation of the future and use that to provide a single potential weather evolution and single forecast numbers. Now we have much more computer power we can run many forecasts, each with a slightly different (but reasonable) starting condition or with somewhat different model physics (e.g., how clouds form). The forecasts will be different and the differences will generally increase in time. When the forecasts are very similar...then uncertainty is low, and vice versa. You can get probabilities from them as well. If half the simulations give rain and the rest do not...then a 50% chance of rain is reasonable (we have much more sophisticated ways of doing this, but it will serve as an example).

The NWS has several ensemble systems, as do we at the UW.
They are actively used to determine how uncertain the forecasts are and to understand the range of possibilities. We are now trying to develop the techniques to provide high-quality uncertainty/probabilistic information from the ensembles. In five years we should have reliable forecasts of this kind. But then there is the next problem....how do we communicate the information? Are people ready for such guidance? Are you ready for it?

Regarding today's forecast...lots of low clouds in eastern WA, but generaly sunny elsewhere. High clouds are moving in overhead as a system approaches from from the SW (see images). Tomorrow we will have considerable clouds and showers. And that will be the character of the upcoming week...with the mountains finally getting a modest amount of snow (particularly midweek). From my viewing of the ensembles, there appears to be very little likelihood of lowland snow...one of the reasons I was discouraging such talk from those looking at long-term forecasts.


I will be at the NW Flower and Garden Show in Seattle tomorrow at noon if anyone want to talk in person. And don't forget the KIRO weather special at 7 PM on Monday...it should be good.

Week 41: Pageant of the Transmundane

It seems that for a moment the game Gran Turismo had become reality as police in Greenville, New York pulled over a 1993 Honda Civic doing 137 MPH. Outside of that game, I thought the only way to get one up to that speed was to drop one from the sky. Wait, I think even then, it would top out at 120.

What can top real life? We shall soon see.

This week's winning entry comes from Kindertrauma, a repository of childhood terrors.

Now, there are any number of items at that site that qualify as transmundane, it's true, but this week, I've decided to reward a find they posted which was really topical: a parody of The Wrestler featuring an unlikely new lead character.

Now, I could find a picture which wrecked the surprise, but really, in this case, the surprise is half the fun. So I've chosen the cover of the Simpsons Wrestling game for the Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award image. Appropriate, understated though I wouldn't say fun.



Congrats to you Uncle Lancifer for pulling off this win. Here is your badge.



The rules of this little contest: Every week I will be selecting one blog post that I have seen from the vast reaches of the blogosphere to bestow with the Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award for being one of the freakiest(in a funny way) things I've seen or read during a 7 day period. It doesn't necessarily have to have been written during the week, I just had to have encountered it. That means that if you find something interesting and repost it like a movie or whatever, if I saw it at your blog first, you get the prize. Of course, creating your own content is also a very good way to win.

Now, if you see a post that you think is worthy of this illustrious prize, just drop me a line at campybeaver@gmail.com and we'll see if we can't get your suggestion up and award-ready while giving you some credit and a link to your own blog.

Tags: homer simpson, simpsons wrestling, the wrestler, kindertrauma, greenville, new york, gran turismo, pageant of the transmundane, mickey rourke, honda civic

Developer Preview Releases for the Visualization API

By Nir Bar-Lev, Google Product Management

We are now offering Visualization API developers an opportunity to preview upcoming release candidates.  Developers can opt in to these bleeding-edge builds simply by changing one line of code when loading the Visualization library.

Developers can use these release candidates as an opportunity to see what new features being developed, test upcoming changes in their applications in advance, and provide the Google team with valuable feedback on the Visualization API discussion group.

More details of the new process can be found in our Release Notes documentation.  And please be sure to check out all the available visualizations and new Tools Gallery while you're there.

We hope to see you at Google I/O in May where we will be hosting several sessions to teach you how to be more productive than ever with the Visualization API.

Uncertainty

I often warn about taking long-range forecasts (beyond 5 days) too seriously...particularly when we talk about snow. Today is a good example where even 3 day forecasts are very, very uncertain. Attached are the 500 mb upper level charts for 3 days out...from the National Weather Service GFS and NAM models (the top two models used by my colleagues in the NWS). They are radically different--much more so than we usually see. What does that tell us...very substantial uncertainty. If 3 days out is uncertain, what do you think is the case for the 7-10 snow events some are talking about? The GFS model usually is the best...but this is the kind of situation that really reduces my confidence.
Meteorologists have a powerful tool for assessing uncertainty ...ensembles collections of many model runs. We run an ensemble system at the UW and it shows major differences between the solutions from modeling centers around the world. Attached is a graphic showing the differences in 500 mb heights (think of it as pressure in the middle troposphere). The yellow and brown colors indicate very major differences in the 72 hr forecasts of the ensemble members...indicating large uncertainty. It can be intoxicating to view the long-range forecasts and think about what they imply. But you need to understand the uncertainty that exists. Furthermore, the uncertainty varies by situation--and understanding that uncertainty and how to estimate it is the difference between my skilled colleagues in the NWS and people who simply look at the model output.

PS: Will be signing books at the garden show in seattle at noon on Sunday...

Weather Special on Monday Night on KIRO TV

For all you weather lovers, KIRO will have an hour long special on Monday night on the December 2007 storm. The info link with a short clip is below. It is a bit scary...so if you are faint of heart weatherwise, don't view it...cliff

http://www.kirotv.com/station/18725264/detail.html

The Culture Kills Music Podcast Episode 2

Well, here we are, just two weeks after my first music podcast, and already I've completed a second one. Who'd have thunk it?

Granted, I recorded most of the audio for this podcast during the same session as the first podcast, so that helped a lot. I admit there are some rather noticeable edits and redubs, but the show must go on despite my occasional deficiencies as a public speaker.

The playlist for this show:

Ekho - Nocturne
Little Name - Orienteering
Patti Rothberg - Wavelength
Dare Dukes - Bakersfield
The Squarewaves - You Fell Asleep
Social Studies - Sparrow

You can listen to it on the embedded player below:


Of course, if you want to download it for future listening, it is also available in MP3 form (41 MB).

Perhaps next time I will only encode it at 128 rather than 160kbps and save some people some bandwidth.

The Podcast is also available at Mevio, which has an RSS feed and additional listening options.

The music was provided by Ariel Publicity, the Podsafe Music Network and The Squarewaves.

And if you are an independent musician or represent a publicity or record company that makes music available for podcast and you would like me to know about it, feel free to contact me at campybeaver@gmail.com.

Tags: culture kills music podcast, episode 2, patti rothberg, dare dukes, bakersfield, ariel publicity, wavelength, little name, orienteering, ekho, nocturne, squarewaves, you fell asleep, podsafe music network, social studies, mevio, sparrow, playlist, podsafe, precleared

Spring...and then the return of rain

The models are all in agreement that the next three days should be mild and sunny, with some high clouds invading on late Saturday. Highs in the mid 50s will be widespread, as they were today. The sun is clearly higher in the skies and the days are perceptibly longer. The big transition is on Sunday, when the protective ridge will give way to moderate southwesterly flow and cooler, cloudy conditions, as well as certain rain. This pattern will continue through the week...I have attached a few upper level charts that show the new flow pattern clearly (for Sunday and Monday afternoon). Note how the protective ridge has moved inland and a series of troughs are making their way towards us in the SW flow. With moist flow and falling freezing levels, the mountains will start getting snow again, and it looks like there should be at least a foot over the entire week.

The latest prediction by the National Weather Service's Climatic Prediction Center is for cooler and wetter than normal conditions over the next month. Sounds like a La Nina forecast to me.

I'm Sorry Mr. Rourke

I would just like to send Mickey Rourke some condolences. As someone who has lost a beloved pet relatively recently, I can truly sympathize with the loss of his beloved chihuahua Loki.

Of course, this loss comes just days before the Oscar ceremonies, so this week is likely going to be very bittersweet for him.

"Sometimes when a man's alone, that's all you got is your dog. And they've meant the world to me."

Nothing snarky here, just a lot of sympathy.

Tags: mickey rourke, loki, oscars, the wrestler

Parentonomics Now Shipping

It is six weeks ahead of schedule but I just got an email that my own pre-ordered copy of Parentonomics is now shipping from Amazon.com. I guess the wait is over. It looks like we are still waiting on shipping outside of the US but I'll provide an update when I know more.

Now playing: developer-created videos

By Christine Tsai, Google Developer Programs

In the last few months, we've posted videos of developers sharing how they built their applications with Google developer tools and technologies. These included developers building their AJAX front-ends with Google Web Toolkit, writing mobile apps for the Android platform, and scaling their web apps with App Engine. We really enjoyed working with these developers to produce these videos. However, we thought it would be great to allow any developer to create their own video talking about their application and help them share their video with other developers on code.google.com.

Today, we're happy to announce that we're now accepting developer-created videos through this video submission page. If you've got a great app built with Google developer products and want to be considered to be featured on code.google.com, all you need to do is:

1. Check out these instructions and guidelines
2. Create a short video (or videos) based on the above guidelines and upload it to your YouTube account.
3. Submit your video details on the submission page.
4. We'll be reviewing submissions regularly and selecting videos to feature on code.google.com and/or our developer blogs.

You don't need professional equipment or even a studio to produce a good video. Here are 2 examples of videos created by developers. Note that both were shot with hand-held video recording devices and basic video editing software. And as you can see, the "sets" used are just their own workspaces:

Jimmy Moore, developer of Mibbit:



Best Buy's Giftag.com, which was recently featured on this blog:



Ready to tell us your story? Visit the submission page to get started.

Finally, Spring is coming

Most years there is a transition after Feb. 15th that makes one realize that Seattle winter is over. When thoughts trend to the garden center, rather than the ski slopes. And for us, this shift will occur on Thursday through Saturday of this week. It is clear now that with the low developing offshore, southeasterly flow will bring warm air from the south and descent off the mountains. Temperatures will climb to between 55 and 60 over most of the lowlands, with Saturday probably being the warmest day over the Puget Sound lowlands. Some locations will be even warmer (low sixties...such as the Oregon coast and in the immediate lee of the Cascades. Just to give you a taste, I have attached surface temperatures from our regional model (12-km WRF), which shows the story. One image is for 2 PM on Friday, the other for 1 PM on Saturday.
On Sunday our luck runs out and showers and clouds move back in. But after the warmth, it won't seem the same. My grass is already growing.

If any of you are going to the garden show on Sunday, I will be there at the University Book Store area from 12 to 3 PM.

Now Leo's coming for Joshua

Leonardo DiCaprio has made me a sad little geekboy this morning.

Word is he is going to be producing a remake of the iconic 1983 film Wargames. It has been one of my favorite movies for a long time, and now, it too is going to be sullied by remake fever.

I mean, I had less than a day of relief after reading about the new The Thing movie and then this. I am having a hard enough time accepting that Robocop remake, and is like Hollywood is just kicking me while I am down.

My suggestion to DiCaprio for an alternate plan is to remake D.A.R.Y.L instead, though I am sure there are people out there who would be as upset about that as I am about this Wargames "reboot". But I am willing to bet there are less people who would be upset by that than a Wargames remake, because it has a good following in certain communities which are, how shall I put this, very adept at doing things with computers.

And correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the word reboot in these cases generally apply to movies that had lots of sequels (Bond) and television show remakes? There are only two movies in the Wargames universe... how can you reboot that... I know it is a computer-based movie, but that pun is just unwarranted really.

So I am sort of doubly pissed by this whole thing this afternoon.

Tags: leonardo dicaprio, wargames, global thermonuclear war, remake, reboot, d.a.r.y.l., the thing, robocop, 1980's, hollywood, sad geekboy, joshua

I want to build one of these now

I've been playing a game called S.L.A.I (Steel Lancer Arena International) as of late, and so I've had a lot of Mech fighting on my mind. I mean, I even looked up the trailer to the awful 1989 movie Robot Jox (and does anyone think the game intro looks more realistic than the actual movie?)

Picture my astonishment over the weekend when I stumbled on the following image:



I found this image at SHNELLL, and it really got my geeky-sense tingling. Especially since I know what a Madcat is. (A Madcat is an awesome assault mech in Mechwarrior).

It just works on so many levels (the fact that it looks like the cat has its paws on the control levers is the icing on the cake). I know it isn't accurate, but for the materials involved, it is pretty cool.

Tags: battletech, mech warrior, slai, steel lancer arena international, madcat, shnell, assault mech, cat, robot jox

Cloudy East, Sunny West

If you needed proof that western Washington can be sunnier than eastern Washington in the winter...today is a good example. Look at the latest satellite picture. The east side is covered in low clouds, which are pushing into the Cascade passes (sorry, lots of clouds at the ski resorts in the pass). West of the crest, there is sun in many locations...with the south Sound still in fog and low clouds and the remainder of yesterday clouds/rain over NW Washington (see radar). But both of these locations should improve during the day with sun reaching most of western Washington. The real weather is to the south over Oregon and particularly California...where heavy rain and strong winds are hitting.
The rest of the week....more of the same for us. The upper pattern is absolutely amazing...with a very deep low center over the eastern Pacific...this is quite unusual.

The New Thing is Going to Be a Prequel?

I've been really against the upcoming retread of The Thing for a long time, but I think I am finally ready to accept it.

Mainly I think the reason I've reached this point is because I've heard the concept, and in many ways, what is being planned almost enhances John Carpenter's movie.

Instead of remaking or reimagining The Thing, the new plan is apparently a prequel which takes place in the Norwegian camp in Antarctica during days and weeks preceding the events of the 1982 movie. Those of you who have seen The Thing will likely remember that film began with a dog being chased by Norwegians in a helicopter.

Now, there are movies that get sequels and prequels that don't really warrant them narratively, and I think a lot of you out there can think of more than one that fits that description. However, the Norwegian camp scenario does have some promise, and a movie that covers that storyline at least competently (and hopefully keeping the movie in the early 1980's) will add additional back story to the tale told by John Carpenter.

So until I hear something that makes me once again sour on the idea of a revisit to the frozen wastes of Antarctica circa 1982, I am now in a state of cautious optimism about this project. Especially since Ronald Moore is supposedly writing the script, and we all know how he worked his magic on Battlestar Galactica.

Honestly, I never thought I would have such feelings about Hollywood revisiting The Thing.

Tags: the thing, john carpenter, ronald moore, battlestar galactica, antarctica, norway, norwegians, prequel