Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Northwest Springtime Heat Wave

I should have known what would happen when I finished my last blog on the "pause" in global warming.   It was like putting a red flag in front of a meteorological bull.   The inevitable result:  a torrid springtime heat wave will hit us later this week...and from the look of the latest model runs, it won't be in a rush to leave.  Put away your umbrella, find your sunglasses, and buy an ample supply of sunblock...you will need it, with sunny days stretch for a week and temperatures getting to 80 by this weekend.

Ironically, this period of warm temperatures and sun was preceded by cool temperatures and snow down to around 1000 ft on Monday, with nearly a foot of snow at Snoqualmie and loads of accidents in that pass.  The culprit:  cold air behind a strong cold front and a Puget Sound convergence zone that extended into the mountains.   But that is all behind us now!
Snoqualmie Pass at 6:17 PM on Monday evening hardly looked like a place preparing for a heat wave!

During the next week a major ridge of high pressure will build and hold in place over the eastern Pacific.  Let me show you, using the upper level forecasts at 500hPa, about 18,000 ft above the surface.

The forecast for Thursday at 11 AM, shows a ridge, but a weak short-wave disturbance will bring a few clouds and hold back the temps.  Decent weather in the 60s. 


 By Friday at 5 PM, the disturbance is well through and the ridge is building.  Sunny and low 70s.

The ridge builds over the weekend over us and a low develops over California--not good for the sun-accustomed folks of southern CA, but a very warm pattern for us due to the easterly flow above the northwest.  80F is NOT out of the question for many of you.
Tuesday morning?   The pattern is holding (see below).   Believe it or not you will become sick of heat and sun!

OK, some of you are ready to chide me.  You can't trust one model run!  What do the ensembles (many forecasts made with slightly different starting points or physics) show?   Well, you are right, and below is the output from the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) for Seattle.  The top panel show temperatures (C not F!).  The line in  the middle of the yellow boxes give the median values (half of the simulations are above, half below).  The highest and lowest forecasts are shown with the "wiskers" protruding off the boxes.  Bottom line:  warming, with very little doubt about it during the next five days.

The second panel gives precipitation.  VERY dry in nearly all the ensemble members for the next week or so. 

Right now the National Weather Service downtown Seattle forecast only reaches 69F on Saturday.  I bet they will be bringing this up!  They are a conservative lot down there.

And if your heart needed any more warming, here is the latest 8-14 day temperature forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.   Probabilities weighted for temperatures to be warmer than normal (and needless to say, no precipitation).
As I have said several times in earlier blogs...this spring is not a repeat of the past two.

Want to help find out the effects of coal trains on the local environment?

Atmospheric Chemistry Professor Dan Jaffe is ready to begin a study on air pollution from trains, especially freight  and coal trains, in the Puget Sound region.   Several state and local agencies told him that this work needs to be done, but that it is too politically hot for them to fund.

Considering the importance of this work, Dr. Jaffe is going to depend on crowd funding to support this effort.  For more information and perhaps to help, please check out this website: 

https://www.microryza.com/projects/do-coal-and-diesel-trains-make-for-unhealthy-air

Ratings: syndies stumble again

Syndicated shows of all sorts suffered in the week of April 15-21 from big news stories. All those preemptions took a toll. Game shows (with one small exception) felt the pain along with their fellow syndies. TVNewsCheck brings the depressing numbers...

Wheel of Fortune 6.4 - down three ticks
Jeopardy 5.7 - down three ticks to match the soulmate
Family Feud 4.3 - down a couple ticks as Steve finds some adversity
Millionaire 2.1 - down three ticks as Meredith nears the end
Baggage 1.1 - who says there's no good news, Jerry's up a tenth of a point!

Meredith slid right out of the syndie list at TV by the Numbers. The viewership averages: Wheel of Fortune 10.0 million (weekend repeat 4.8 million), Jeopardy 8.6 million, Family Feud 6.4 million. The numbers are visibly weaker but still hardly horrible compared to much of broadcast TV, at least in total viewers.

Oh Sit is getting some less than thrilling numbers. The latest first-run (April 29) pulled 730K total viewers with a 0.3 18-49 rating.

TVNewser says that GSN enjoyed a very good month of April by the network's historical standards: 388K/268K viewers prime time/total day. The network ranked 40th and 39th in the windows.

Podcast: Previewing Pens-Islanders, with an appearance by a real-life Islanders fan!

A big Isles fan named Eric joins the podcast to discuss the Pens-Isles series, how the Isles can win the series, the lingering impact of the brawl, and our predictions. A very entertaining appearance. It's the GTOG podcast.

Click here to subscribe on iTunes



**If you're listening on your smartphone, the best ways to make sure that you have an uninterrupted experience are: 1) download the podcast from iTunes OR 2) download the Spreaker app by going to the App store and searching for "Spreaker" then "Get To Our Game"**

Drop the puck.

How dumb do they think we are?

To reiterate:  never, ever, ever, pay any attention to women when they give you advice about what women find attractive:
Forget flash cars, expensive restaurants and lavish bouquets - the way to impress the nation’s women is to fasten on a tool belt and get drilling. High maintenance females have voted DIY skills sexier in a man than sporting prowess and cooking capabilities.  A new study has revealed women’s top turn ons - and turn offs - when it comes to a man's skill set, taking in everything from assembling furniture and unblocking drains to scoring on the football pitch or cooking up a storm in the kitchen.
Sure. That explains how Joe the Plumber stole Irina Shayk from Cristiano Ronaldo and why you can't go to a hardware store without seeing more hot girls exposing their implants to men in tool belts than you see at a rock concert.

If this doesn't undermine the perceived legitimacy of social surveys, I don't know what will.  Men, this is how hopelessly stupid women genuinely believe you to be.  "If I dangle even the merest prospect of sex in front of him, maybe he'll put my Ikea furniture together for me."

If a woman ever tries to pull the "you know what I think is really sexy" line on you, and you not only buy it, but actually perform the supposedly sexy task, you're a delta. At best.

How to get yourself adequately worried that the Pens will lose to the Islanders

By GTOG Staff (follow us on Twitter)

Artistry: Everyone around the water cooler today had the same question: "Are you happy with the match-up?" As an initial matter, happiness has nothing to do with playoff hockey. There is excitement, yes. But it's excitement like you feel before you go skydiving for the first time. "I hope I don't die" excitement. It's a lot of fretfulness and sitting really close to the television. The real question is, do we think the Islanders are a "favorable" match-up. 


The place we need to get to.
On paper, the answer has to be yes. The Penguins went 4-1 against them this season, with the only loss coming way back on January 29. Since then, the Pens have outscored the Isles 16-5 in four games, and three of those games were played without either Malkin or Crosby. And the Islanders were underwhelming against everybody. 21st in the league in penalty killing. 21st in the league in goals against per game. A negative goal differential. Is there anything that you can tell me to get me to the proper state of heightened anxiety?

Get worried with us after the jump...


Finesse: Asking me to reach a heightened level of anxiety during the NHL playoffs is like asking Mike Milbury to be more annoying. I'm already starting from a pretty high baseline. 

But be like every other NHL fan and forget about the Islanders. My biggest reason for anxiety is Marc-Andre Fleury. Based on last year's playoffs and his tendency to let bad goals snowball, he is so much more likely to be the reason the Pens lose this series than he is to be the reason they win it, right? Put him up against the John Tavares - Matt Moulson combo (yes, I'm talking myself into being scared of Matt Moulson) and there's at least a chance he melts down. Bylsma has a much better backup option this season, but would he have the balls to use it?



Artistry: OK, that didn't take long. I'm now standing at my desk, holding myself and slowly rocking back and forth on my heels. I'm where I need to be. It doesn't take balls to make a choice when there is no choice. And if we see a Fleury performance like the one against Philly last spring, Bylsma must go with Vokoun. I can't see Fleury being that bad again - even if he's not great. What I can see is our PK struggling in the face of a John Tavares-led onslaught. 

Finesse: This is where if I wasn't trying to scare you, I'd point out that 1) the Isles PP is under 20%; 2) the Pens PP is 24.7%; and 3) the Isles PK is only 0.7% better than the Pens (80.3% to 79.6%).  Then if I really didn't get the point of this exercise, I'd tell you that the Pens PK was 81.3% since the arrival of Crankshaft and 6 of the 9 power play goals the Pens have given up since acquiring Crankshaft came in only 2 games (NYR and TBL).

Artistry: I don't think you get the point of this exercise.


Doesn't care what the point of this exercise is.
Finesse: Fine, I'll spin negative.

When I try to envision the Pens losing this series, I don't see losing 4 tightly-contested games.  I see a borderline meltdown.  The Pens gave up multiple power-play goals six times this season, including games of 3, 3, and 4 against.  If the PK goes, it might go completely.  So I ask ... if you were given the option of accepting that the Isles score 6 total power-play goals in this series, would you take it?

Artistry: Hmmm. That seems like a lot. Until you consider that in Round 1 last year the Flyers' power play went 12-for-23. Let me just type that again. 12-FOR-23. So 6 goals in the abstract is not a frightening number. The more relevant question I think is whether more than 1 or 2 of these games will be close enough to make a power play goal by the Islanders matter. Just look at the rosters and it's clear, there's only one way THAT happens: Evgeni Nabokov plays lights out. 

Finesse: Hold it right there. Is Nabokov even good?

Artistry: You may think he's merely an average NHL goalie, but - and you knew this was coming - so was Glen Healy. Inexperience may be an issue for most guys on the Islanders, but not for Nabokov. He's 37 and has no less than 80 playoff games under his belt. During his deepest run with the Sharks, he sported a .935 save percentage and a 1.71 GAA. And I'm not looking this up, but I'm pretty sure neither Malkin nor Crosby has ever scored against him. Can he steal two games on his own, and can he keep the others close enough that a below par Pens PK might sink Pittsburgh?

Finesse: You're talking about the same goalie who refused to report when the Islanders claimed him off waivers 2 years ago?  Although in fairness, Mario refused to report to the Pens when they drafted him and now he has so much goodwill in Pittsburgh that he could melt down the Steelers' six Lombardi trophies to make a necklace for Francisco Cabrera and we'd start a petition for him to get a second statue on the Northside.

Nabakov is a concern, but I've maintained that the Pens are so ridiculously deep and talented that they are much more likely to be eliminated because of bad goaltending on their part than great goaltending by the opponent.  I remind you that Malkin-Neal-Kunitz is the Pens second line.

Artistry: There's also the coaching element to consider.  Wait.  Never mind.


Hair that singlehandedly keeps memories of 1993 alive.
To recap, the top two fears we've identified have little to do with the Islanders: a Fleury meltdown and a PK disaster.  The actual Islanders-based reasons that might make you afraid have their own flaws: John Tavares has never played a playoff game and is probably the 3rd best player in the series; Matt Moulson is Matt Moulson and we're not really going to get overly worked up about that; and Evgeni Nabakov has playoff experience the same way Dan Marino had playoff experience.

By any objective measure, the Pens should win this series.  But that doesn't mean you can't be afraid.



Bushido demo game and first impressions

As a return favor for my By Fire and Sword demo Andreas ran a demo of Bushido for me, it's a game that I have seen but not really been able to make up my mind about and having also seen the catalogue of miniatures it was  very hard to know what kind of game this was.

Well, the demo game with Andreas answered a lot of questions. This post is a summary of my first impressions of the game and a bit of game mechanics and rules that I can remember.

Summary of Bushido:

Bushido takes place in a feudal Japanese setting, the factions are however a mix of real humans and fantasy elements from Japanese mythology I suppose. Some factions are made up of more or less only humans, while there are some that are more or less only monsters, and everything in between.

The game is always played on a tiny 60x60cm/2x2' area, games are always about a scenario (no mindless brain bashing) and at the core the game uses D6's to generate results from actions. It's also alternate activations which is the standard of most skirmish games nowadays. Each game also lasts 6 turns.

The number of models on the table is quite small, it's a "warband" game. Models are each worth X-amount of "rice" (points) and games are meant to be played in the area of 30-50 points. With the number of named characters I thought it would be like Malifaux where you need a "commander" or something like that, but Andreas said you can play with anything you like within your faction as long as you can pay for it in points. That means that you can field a couple of strong characters or a horde of minions. The choice is up to you and there are no faction restrictions beyond that you can't field more than 1 of each named character in your warband.


Andreas said that the game plays like the old "Confrontation" game, which I never got to play - but a couple of things stood out the most to me during the demo:

1) All models can activate twice during a turn, but you can only perform 1 action at a time. This means that your little bow armed Bakamono monster (some kind of goblinoid creature) can use 1 action to move, then the enemy does something with one of his units, and after that you may move pick which model on your side to activate again - and can in this case activate the Bakamono to fire his bow.

Now the broken up action point spending in itself is not revolutionary, but the added twist which the game mechanics apply makes a whole lot of difference. You see every time you activate your miniature OR is forced to react with your miniature you accumulate stamina loss. A model that has spent, or been forced to spend, both his action cannot activate for the remainder of the turn and will also be easier to attack as it's tired.

Exactly what this means in the game is that you can block strong enemy characters and monsters by forcing them to spend their actions in defense by you attacking them with small worthless minions. Locking down or limiting the potential of powerful monsters and characters seem to be a key component to victory as each game is all about scenarios - you don't have to kill the enemy - just prevent him from completing his task! And as you might imagine, just opting to run a couple of very strong characters without any support can turn against you real quick.

2) Combat in the game uses D6 which I find as exciting as stale bread most of the time, but I am always impressed when a game manages to make something different with it.  And Bushido certainly manages to do just that in a for me completely new way. Each miniature has X-amount of attack dice used in close combat. But, you bust secretly, before rolling the dice, choose the amount of dice to be used for Defense and the amount to be used for Attack. Sometimes the choice is clear, but most of the time you don't really want to be left without any defense dice because combat can be brutal.

Dice rolling mechanics in Bushido works as such, both players take a number of designated D6 and roll them. You then pick the one highest result in your roll, and then add the number of remaining dice (except for those that rolled 1) to that result. Example, Rolling 3x D6, result is 4.2.2. That means your highest result is 4, you add the other dice you that result making your final result a 6. Had you rolled 6.4.4. the final result would have been an 8.

You then compare your attack score with the defenders defense score, if the number is equal to or higher than the defenders score the attack strikes home and has the chance to inflict damage. However, instead of rolling a regular Strength vs Toughness/Armor type of roll, players consult a chart that is divided into columns ranging from 0-12. The higher the difference of the attacker’s victory, the further down the line of damage columns you go. If you win by 5 you roll on column nr.5 if you win by 12 you roll on column nr.12. Each column requires the player to roll 2d6 and score above a certain number to inflict a variety of damage points.

As you can perhaps conclude the further down the damage column you go the easier it becomes to inflict damage and most important of all - the damage inflicted is increased vastly. And it's not really as complex as it may sound, but you will have to check the column chart when dealing damage unless you are Rainman.

Ranged damage works pretty much the same as close combat, with two exceptions. Ranged weapons have short/medium/long range, each of them has a number telling you the range in inches and that is also the difficulty of scoring a hit. At medium range a Bow may require 8 to score a hit, which would require you to roll at least 3 dice, and have one of them turn out to be a 6 so you could reach the requirement. Since there is no defense roll from the target model, the damage column bonus derives from your ability to score a hit in such a way and with so many dice that you jump down the row of columns.

This makes shooting very difficult to both hit and deal damage with beyond short range, but makes shooting very deadly and close range.

3) The third and last thing that stood out is connected to the combat is that each faction has some kind of resource handling, it's different from faction to faction, but using the demons that I played as an example each model generate a "Chi" marker. Chi markers could be traded in for additional combat dice, to cast magic spells or summon additional minions onto the table. This resource carried over from one turn to the other, so it was wise to save up a bit so you could trade in for a number of additional extra combat dice when you really wanted to kill something or avoid being killed by a powerful attack. In combination with the dice rolling mechanic, being able to trade Chi in for additional dice could boost average fighters and make them quite good or make it possible to fire a bow at a range span previously deemed impossible.

So that is my summary of Bushido. I actually liked it quite a bit, the theme of the game is not really my cup of tea - but there is at least 1 faction with "generic" humans/Samurai warriors that I could consider collecting and playing with myself.

Monday, April 29, 2013

Expertise

So this e-mail lands in my inbox about the second season of The Experts. And I suddenly realize what a game show nerd I am. Because I know what The Experts is.

In fact, I once faux tweeted about it. The "show" is actually just a bunch of YouTube videos. The second season begins today with the 11th episode. Three experts on various (mostly pop-culture) subjects square off in an absurdly stripped-down quizzer. Today's new episode features experts on Glee, Breaking Bad and Resident Evil.

The money is picayune and the production values are nonexistent. The show makes a big deal of this, as if it's hip to be cheap. Well, maybe it is, I dunno. The host is Michael Shure, who works for Cenk Uygur on The Young Turks. If you don't know who or what I'm talking about, there's a reason. The Young Turks is on the recently bought (by robber barons from Arab oil-land), soon to be renamed, and virtually unwatched Current TV. Which is one of the best places on the planet to hide.

Anyway, The Experts is a sort of okay quizzer, but after a while - like five minutes - I get tired of the pretentious cheapness. All right, there's no money in the game. That's nice. But what if I don't care about Glee, Breaking Bad, or Resident Evil? (By the way, I don't.) Oh well, there are other episodes about other subjects.

Yes, I'm being too snotty. The Experts offers some plain, low-key charm. I'm just a sucker for quizzers, even if the subject-matter doesn't fascinate me.

Alpha Mail: is it already over?

A reader who understandably wishes to remain anonymous requests advice:
I am hoping you can give me some advice or point me in the right direction. My wife and I are having trouble and she is about to move out. There is no other man or anything like that. The marriage just deteriorated for both of us.

I just read your post, "Maxim 2: make her jealous" and it just slapped me hard in the face that in the 3 years of marriage I forgot almost every damn thing that I learned about game that I used to win her in the first place. I was an alpha dog fucking her and ever other girl I could find. Now, I am some boring predictable husband that simply provides her a safe comfortable live. Worse, I thought it was enough. Shame on me.

I want to save the marriage if I can because I certainly like her well enough and she is gorgeous but mostly because of the financial ruin it will wreck on me. She doesn't work and I will pay a fortune for her and our child if she leaves, which will seriously cramp my style when finding another girl. If I do the things she needs I think we would both be happy.

She hasn't left yet and it is like she is waiting for me to react a certain way. I think my game hasn't been terrible in the last few days in trying to keep her to stay - but I don't think it has been great either. I didn't ask her to stay or do anything pathetic. Instead, I bought lots of very nice clothes to up my wardrobe, started making myself scarce, and showing no signs that it bothered me that she is leaving. I told her that I wanted the same thing, that I already felt free and the idea of hunting again made me feel alive. I also told her that I am going to start dating a girl from work (which is true if I want to).  But, I really want to say, "I remember what I need to do and I am going to take you upstairs and show you right now".

I think I have the inner game mostly right but I am not sure of the best immediate tactical steps I need to do to get her to stay so I can do for her what she needs. It may be too late and if that is the case then so be it. But I am going to try. I am concerned that any affection will simply signal AFC and any indifference will simply tell her that it is over and she should go. I am thinking that maybe it is best to let her go and then be the alpha dog to get her back. Not sure - as I have no experience here. If I could, I would be the first to leave but I can't because I own the house and there are kids involved.

I would appreciate any advice you can give.
First, let me point out that Maxim 2 is Roissy's advice, not mine. Second, while I'm loathe to intrude upon what is more properly Athol's territory, I would say that before this man attempts anything, he must first ascertain if his wife is already engaging in an affair.  It sounds to me as if that is at least a possibility, even if she denies that is the case.

Third, I think he has to stop dancing around the issues. If he really wants to say something, he should say it. How can he worry about showing affection being too AFC when he's afraid to say what he really thinks, and tell her what he really wants? There can be a fine line between Indifference Game and actively driving a woman away.

He's obviously running the MAP, which is necessary, but in this case apparently insufficient.  If she's really so unconcerned that she doesn't care if he's dating other women or not, it's already over and his attempts to win her back are likely to be futile.

Koi Pond is the Hot Seller on DriveThruCards!

KOI POND on DriveThruCards

I'm happy to announce that DriveThruCards is officially launching today and KOI POND is already the top seller. DriveThruCards is a print-on-demand store devoted exclusively to card games and that's it. DTC's just-the-cards focus means they can provide the best-quality print-on-demand cards you've ever handled. You'll really be surprised at how nice they are.

KOI POND is a fast, brainy, casual strategy game. Collect colorful koi fish and place them in your pond or your house. Keep your pond and house totals as equal as you can, because you only score points for the lower total! What’s more, your pond is public, but your house is secret. To win, you have to be... coy!

What's it like?
This is a quiet, fast filler game best paired with warm drinks amongst friends. Mix the elegant presentation of Coloretto with the fun decision-making of Biblios. Mix in clever scoring and garnish with lovely sumi-e inspired artwork.

Details:

2-4 Players | 20 Minutes | Ages 10+

Quality:

This game uses DriveThruCard's thickest, highest quality, Premium card stock. They feel great!

Includes:
60 Koi cards in red, blue, yellow or white, plus hybrids.

12 Cat, Turtle, Crane cards, one of each in each color.

12 Ribbon cards, three of each in each color.

4 Reference cards for ease of play.

1 Start Player card.

Buy it today!

Pens draw the Islanders in Round 1; Talk yourself into being scared now

By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)

The Pens open the playoffs on Wednesday against the New York Islanders.  A few quick thoughts.

Schedule via Puck Daddy
[Insert every caveat imaginable about how nothing is guaranteed, and an 8-seed won the Cup last year, and David Volek, etc.] This is probably the best matchup the Pens could have hoped for.  The Islanders have limited playoff experience, vastly inferior depth, and the Pens have outscored them 16-5 in the last 4 games, all of which the Pens won.


The main things to worry about are: 1) The Islanders have one of the top-5 players in the league and he's only getting better, plus a talented supporting cast 2) Evgeni Nabakov has tons of playoff experience and there's a stat somewhere that shows that Crosby never scores on him; and 3) the Pens are burdened with all of the expectations while the Isles have none.

Don't fight it. Allow Matt Moulson to scare you.
As legitimate as those concerns are, there are easy counters for each.  The Isles have a top-5 guy; the Pens have two of them.  Nabakov has playoff experience; it's not particularly good playoff experience, and even if it was, so does everyone on the Pens.  The Pens are burdened with all of the expectations; that's because they have the better team.

There's a recent parallel for this series that should bring at least some comfort.

In 2007, an ascending Pens team got its first crack at the playoffs against an Ottawa team loaded with veteran talent that was on a run of playoff disappointment.

Here are some things from the ESPN archive previewing that Pens-Sens series:
The theory is this is a psychologically fragile Senators team that has a tendency to cave when the going gets tough. 
The Penguins face a Senators team long on playoff disappointment but equally long on experience and motivation. 
The Penguins give up a lot of chances and are especially susceptible to a strong forecheck. The Senators, second among all playoff teams in goals scored, have enough fire power to make the Pens pay dearly for mistakes. 
And from the Game 1 preview: The Ottawa Senators can see a lot of what they used to be when they look at NHL scoring leader Sidney Crosby and the rest of the Pittsburgh Penguins when the Stanley Cup playoffs begin Wednesday night.
Everything turned out to be true.  The Senators steamrolled -- and I mean steamrolled -- the Pens in a 6-3 game 1 win.  The Pens settled down after to steal game 2 and make the rest of the series competitive, but there was never a doubt about who was the better team.  The Sens won the series in 5 games. The Pens' best days were ahead of them.  The Senators were loaded for a run at the Cup.



We'll have several preview posts leading up to Wednesday.  LGP.

By Fire & Sword: Attack on the village SKIRMISH

Finally after a year long wait I could demo the game on equal terms, both me and Andreas now had the rules in English so things went a lot smoother than during my many games against Thomas, Patrik and David in the past.

We decided to play a "Skirmish" level battle, for two reasons. One being that the Skirmish level is recommended as an entry point into the game, it covers all the rules but plays on a smaller scale which makes it easier to comprehend and faster to play. This is the tournament standard for By Fire & Sword down in Poland and it has seen great success and popularity with tournaments organized by Wargamer.pk being played frequently.

The other reason to play a "Skirmish" level battle is to enjoy the richer scenario section, which is very well fleshed out for the Skirmish level of the game. Division games are large pitched battles where you determine winners by friendly and enemy casualties (or if you can come up with thematic background stories for your large battles yourself). Skirmish battles on the other hand are about the reconnaissance force sent to scout ahead of an army and their little adventure, be it foraging supplies, scouting enemy movements, attacking a village held by the enemy etc. These battles offer two sets of victory points which are combined into a final result, making it a very dynamic experience.

A short summary of the concepts of By Fire & Sword which is stressed by the authors:

Armies are never or very seldom equal in strength, historically one side was weaker/smaller and the other larger/stronger. This should however not make the game unbalanced, balance in By Fire & Sword is maintained by a wonderfully crafty system of costs that add up and boost the weaker army. For instance, the weaker player gets to roll for scenarios, scenarios themselves are worth X-amount of army points which boost the strength of the weaker player. This is so because many scenarios have the weaker player occupy favorable positions are make his smaller army able to pick the battlefield.

If both armies are not worth equal amount of points after a scenario has been picked, the weaker player gets another handicap and that is to roll for "additional effects". Each effect is work 1 army point, and these range from getting unexpected reinforcements, your officer having a good day with increase command abilities (or the enemy having a bad day with decreased command ability), you may force the stronger enemy force to break off a small part and put them in reserves and so on.

All these scenarios and additional effects are worth army points which are added to the army strength of the weaker player. Before the game starts one player, who is on paper weaker - will in fact be equal to his opponent due to a lot of tactical advantages.
It's an interesting concept that makes scenarios and games more dynamic.

...........
Skirmish Battle: Polish Skirmish force vs Swedish detachment

Right, so I played the Poles and Andreas played the Swedes.

My Skirmish force was worth 12 points, while Andreas fielded 11 points worth of Swedes. This meant that Andreas was the weaker player and got to be the "defender" and roll 3x D10 dice on the scenario chart and pick one result. The result could not be worth more army points than the difference between our armies. Andreas rolled "Patrols" (0), "Attack on the Village" (0*) and Ambush (3).

As the difference between our armies was only 1 point he had to pick between the Patrols and Attack on the village. In the rare case you can't choose any scenario then the Patrols scenario is your standard engagement. Andreas picked "Attack on the village" this scenario can increase in army points if the defender chooses to deploy troops inside the village. The cost of the scenario increases by 1 army point for every 3 bases of infantry placed in the village. Andreas placed a company in the village which made the scenario turn into "Attack on the village (1)".

Our armies were now equally strong. This meant that we both rolled for one additional effect per skirmish force on the additional effect chart.

Andreas rolled "Delayed" and forced one of my Dragoon companies to be placed in Reserve and only able to arrive once they pass a skill test at the end of a turn.

I rolled "Good day/Bad day", this effect can be played on a friendly officer in which case his command is increased by +1, or played on an enemy officer who will have his command decreased by -1 command point. I choose to boost my own command, mainly due to having the unruly and insubordinate company of Volunteers who required twice the amount of command points to be ordered around.

One more thing that is checked prior to the beginning of the battle is the Reconnaissance effect. At the Skirmish level you count two things, cavalry bases and then add the number of cavalry units. Light cavalry, Dragoons and Skirmishers are worth more Reconnaissance points. The final tally of your army is compared with the final tally of the opponent. The player with the highest wins the Reconnaissance and can - if the Reconnaissance is favorable enough in points, receive some nice advantages.

In our case, my reconnaissance was so massive that I could put one company in Ambush anywhere on the table as long as it was a terrain feature such as woods or built up area.

Now the battle begins!
............

The Attack on the village lasts 6 turns. Both sides, looking for food or just the enemy main army forces spot a village. As it turns out the enemy has already made claims to it and its your job to retake it/drive the enemy away. In our case the Swedish detachment had deployed some sentries inside the village while the rest of the Swedish force was moving in to secure it completely.

It is up to the Polish force to drive the Swedes away. The player who completely holds the center of the village gets 6 Victory Points. If both sides contest the village each player receives 2 Victory points.

The Polish side moves onward, Pancerni banners split up on the right flank, cossack style cavalry at the left and center, Volunteers at the left flank. The two Polish commanders control one flank each. The Swedes move out with their Reiters towards the flanks to stop the Polish from outflanking the village.

A large Reiter squadron moves towards the windmill and the approaching Pancerni banners while Swedish infantry scramble towards the village, eager to fortify the position and help out the tiny garrison.

First shots are exchanged between a reckless Polish cossack style banner and the Swedish musketeers inside the village. Riding boldly the Polish light cavalry opens fire with a mix of bows and arquebus guns, the Swedish infantry behind the fence is using the cover well and avoid taking any casualties, while themselves being able to deliver a punishing broadside of musket fire - annihilating one base of enemy cavalry. The Poles pass their morale and stay in place.

In the meantime the cavalry of both armies are moving along the flanks. A banner of Polish Pancerni and the Reiter squadron face off and shots are exchanged with little effect, at the start of the following turn both  both units crash into each other, warhammers and swords exchanging blows, pistols fired at close range. The charge, and countercharge of the two units is performed at such a short stretch that neither side builds up any impetuous to aid them in the fight. The charging Reiters even manage to kill a number of Pancerni with their pistols on the charge. Dead drop on both sides but the Pancerni are badly outnumbered, the Swedes have better tactical discipline and had ultimately inflicted more casualties. The fight is lost and the Poles break.

Trying to flee the Poles are pursued by the Swedish Reiters which manage to catch up with the Poles and fight a second round of combat further crippling the Polish Pancerni banner. The Polish unit breaks again while the tired Swedes remain in place. Only thanks to the nearby Polish second in command does the remnant of the Pancerni banner rally.

The opposite situation unfolds on the opposite flank with outnumbered Swedish Reiters being charge by both Volunteers and cossack style light cavalry. The light cavalry fails to hit home and are left disorganized, the Volunteers make it into close combat force the Reiters to withdraw in defeat. Not wanting to pursue the Swedes into a crossfire at the center of the village the Volunteers test - and pass - a skill test to hold their horses and keep a cool head.

The situation for the Polish force doesn't look too bright. The delayed Dragoons have yet to arrive and their participation is sorely missed. The Dragoons kept in ambush are prevented to appear due to the close proximity of enemy troops. What could have been an equalizer or even turning point of the battle for the Poles is left locked down for the moment.

Swedish infantry and artillery units make it to the village, bolstering the strength of the built up area (village center). And with the fleeing and now rallied Reiter remnants the village center is firmly in Swedish hands.

The worst thing about the whole situation for the Poles however is that the still unspent cossack style banner that failed its charge has failed to rally and is left standing without orders! Volunteers ride around the villge hoping to outflank the Swedish defenders, the remaining Pancerni base from the battered regiment is destroyed in a brutal charge by the large Reiter squadron. The remaining still unspent Pancerni banner which was initially going to help out their brothers has to change their intentions and turn towards the village instead where they take up positions behind the fence and open fire at the Swedish Reiters inside the village - who fire back. The fire exchange causes a lot of smoke and noise but no result. The Swedes are now biding their time hoping that the sunset will force the Poles to break off.

In one last act of defiance the Polish Volunteers ride around the village and open fire at the Swedes from the northern edge of the village, the Poles are welcomed by a Swedish light artillery gun and a case shot killing a base of cavalry. Strangely the Volunteers keep cool and don't panic. Meanwhile the Polish 2nd in command sees no other way to disrupt the enemy but to ride up towards the Swedish 2nd in command and open fire with his pistols. As fate would have it the Polish officer hits the Swedish counterpart and manages to slay him!

This was the closing shot of the battle and the Poles are forced to withdraw.

The Swedes occupy the village and receive 6 Victory points.

The Poles had lost 7 bases killed, and 2 bases fled, which reflect as Heavy casualties (up to 50%)giving the Polish player neither a bonus nor a penalty in points.

The Swedish side lost 3 bases killed, "Minor casualties" (up to 10%)  and received 3 additional victory points for having kept his men alive.

The difference in Victory points between both sides was 9 in favor of the Swedes, who won a Strategic Victory, the Poles losing a Strategic defeat.

Our battle lasted just around 2 hours and would have been slightly shorter if we had prepared everything beforehand. Andreas seemed to enjoy the game, and I myself am hooked on the Skirmish level of the game which is a lot more accessible and fast paced than the big Division battles. I think the fight is going to give Andreas a well needed boost to finish his Swedish Skirmish force which is still WIP at this stage (he borrowed some of my infantry). It was too bad Christian came down with the stomach flu since he was also originally meant to play with us using his Cossack force and have the rules presented to him.