Wednesday, July 31, 2013

The Best July Weather in Generations for the Northwest?

July 2013 was probably the best Northwest weather in a half-century or more.  Perfect temperatures west of the Cascade crest, lack of rain, plenty of sun...this month had it all.

And we broke or tied some amazing records this month:  be prepared to be impressed.   I had to wait until this evening to be sure about several of these records, as a band of convective showers moved northward across the region during the afternoon and early evening hours.  But now the story is clear.

Perhaps the most extraordinary occurrence was the aridity of the northern Washington coast.   Quillayute (near Forks) tied the driest month on record set 124 years ago in 1889 (.01 inch).     The precipitation record I am referring to actually combines two stations because of a move.  From 1883-1966, the station was at Tatoosh Island and from 1966 on a Quillayute.    This is a very big record to tie.  No one alive today has experienced such dry conditions on the coast.

What about Seattle?  The airport only had a trace of rain, the driest since 1960.   There are plenty more of these, but you get the point.

To get some perspective on this, here is a map (from the Western Region Climate Center) showing the percentage of normal precipitation for July 1-30, 2013.   The Northwest was VERY dry, with the coastal region experienced 2% or less of normal.
Ironically, it has been far wetter than normal in Arizona, New Mexico and much of Nevada!

But what about July  temperature?   How many ways can you say perfection?  Let's start with Seattle-Tacoma Airport.  In the figure below the red line is the average high and blue line is the average low.  Only about a handful of days were below normal and only two days failed to reach 70F.   No days in the 90s.
Pasco and Spokane?  Same story, but add 10-15F.  Warmer than normal with very little cool weather (see graphics).  Obviously, the drought and warmth east of the Cascades has a down side, with a substantial fire threat (essentially we had mid to late August ground/fuel moisture in late July).
 A more comprehensive view of the temperatures are found in the difference of the monthly average temperatures (through July 30) with normal conditions (climatology)--see graphic. West of the Cascade crest the temperatures were near normal (i.e., near perfect), but warmer than normal conditions were found to the east. Southeast Oregon was very hot (and dry).

I have looked through the Sea-Tac records of the past few decades and could find no July  as comfortable as July 2013.   This is surely the best July on record for most of you.

We have a few days of cooler than normal temperatures and a higher chance of precipitation ahead of us because of an upper level trough (particularly wet  over eastern WA and the northwestern corner of the State).   But it should warm up later in the weekend.  Here is the latest Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day forecast.   Above normal temperatures over our region and below normal precipitation over the western side.


Enjoy.  You will be telling your grandchildren about this July one day.

Spoiled rotten

Noticed a strange comment on Game Show Newsnet today...

There have been words from tapings of the season premiere of "Wheel of Fortune" from Vegas. Adhering to our policy of not wanting to spoil anything for viewers, we will wait for official notice and then report as official word becomes available.

I guess this refers to the news from Buy a Vowel about the new Express wedge on the wheel. I blogged about it a couple days ago. It's a different wrinkle in the gameplay. Is this really "spoiling" anything? I don't see how. Nobody has leaked any actual game results, as Wheel itself did about their second million dollar winner. Folks are just talking about a new game within the game.

Game Show Newsnet does seem to be getting a bit too scrupulous here. I've occasionally gotten embargoed press releases in my e-mail, and I'll respect those. But when a report about a new gameplay element is published on a site which has proven reliable in the past, I don't see anything wrong with relaying the information. The worst that can happen is that the news proves incorrect.

How Safari Books Online uses Google BigQuery for business intelligence

This guest post was written by Daniel Peter, Senior Programmer Analyst at Safari Books Online.

Cross-posted from the Google Cloud Platform Blog

Safari Books Online is a subscription service for individuals and organizations to access a growing library of over 30,000 technology and business books and videos. Our customers browse and search the library from web browsers and mobile devices, generating powerful usage data which we can use to improve our service and increase profitability. We wanted to quickly and easily build dashboards, improve the effectiveness of our sales teams and enable ad-hoc queries to answer specific business questions. With billions of records, we found it challenging to get the answers to our questions fast enough with our existing MySQL databases.

Looking for alternative solutions to build our dashboards and enable interactive ad-hoc querying, we played with several technologies, including Hadoop. In the end, we decided to use Google BigQuery.

Here’s how we pipe data into BigQuery:



Our data starts in our CDN and server logs, gets packaged up into compressed files, and runs through our ETL server before finishing in BigQuery.

Here’s one of the dashboards we built using the data:



You can see that with the help of BigQuery, we can easily categorize our books. This dashboard shows popular books by desktop and mobile, and with BigQuery, we are able to run quick queries to dive into other usage patterns as well.

BigQuery has been very valuable for our company, and we’re just scratching the surface of what is possible.

Check out the article for more details on how we manage our import jobs, transform our data, build our dashboards, detect abuse and improve our sales team's effectiveness.


Posted by Scott Knaster, Editor

"Gamer's Tic Tac Toe" #GTTT

GTTT

Picking up on yesterday's thoughts about converting classic games to something gamers might enjoy, let's talk about the one game possibly more dismissed than roll-and-move: Tic Tac Toe. It's a solved game, as any fans of Matthew Broderick movies will know. The only way to win is to not play.

Then I recently learned about Ultimate Tic Tac Toe. It's played on a 3x3 grid, with each cell containing a standard 3x3 tic tac toe board. On your turn, you place your mark on one of the tiny boards, which in turn forces the next player to make their mark on the corresponding big board. Whoever wins a tiny board lays claim to that entire cell. If you're forced to play on a cell that is already won, you can play in any cell. If you claim three cells in a row, you win! You can see why this is also called "Inception Tic Tac Toe."

Alas, like regular TTT, UTTT has been sort of solved. There are optimal moves that will eventually lead to a tie. The trick with any "Gamer's" version of Tic Tac Toe will be to un-solve it. That is, find ways to introduce random initial states and offer alternate options that make traditionally sub-optimal choices actually worthwhile.

Unexplored Emergent Properties

I wonder if there are some emergent properties yet unexplored by those mathematicians that could be tapped for deeper gameplay. I'm thinking about this in terms of yesterday's post on "Gamer's ____" games. So in this case, it would be "Gamer's Tic Tac Toe."


For example, red is losing this game but in the process has created a few long lines of five-in-a-row. Should that be worth something? Blue has also created long lines. Should that be worth something, too, or is that only the privilege of the player losing the cell strategy? What happens if a player makes a contiguous line that extends across the whole 9x9 game board?


In another scenario, Blue has managed to create a perfect square that traverses two cells. Should that mean something? What if it traverse three squares? What if it was a 4x4 square? Does that have some effect on the marks within the square? Is there some kind of Go-like surrounding mechanic? What about other shapes, like Xs or triangles?


Presently, the only effect of being forced into a claimed cell is that you may then play in any cell. This acts as a deterrent to for your opponent to give you an advantage. I rather perfer incentives over deterrents though. What if you wanted to play in a claimed cell? What if there was some value still left to tap in that cell, despite you not getting the first three-in-a-row? Does having more marks in that cell give you some other reward?

And what if each cell had its own variable reward for being the first to 3-in-a-row, majority, or to be traversed by a long line? Imagine each cell is its own card, with its own stats.


Any discussion of n-in-a-row games and area control games has a long, long history to tap. For now, let's just find a theme so these weird emergent behaviors make some kind of sense as far as gameplay goals.



Gamer's Tic Tac Toe (GTTT)
Once more, the basic gameplay is as identical to Ultimate Tic Tac Toe. The new stuff comes in assymetric mid-game goals and long-term goals.

The board is comprised of nine randomly drawn cards. Each card is a city block with a real estate-sounding name. Each cell of the card represents a building up for sale. The numbers alongside the bottom of each card represent rewards based on certain conditions as described below.


The first player to get three buildings in a row on a card gets the first reward noted on the card. In this case, blue gets 2 points.

The first player to get five buildings on a card gets the majority on that card, but don't score that until the end of the game.

The round ends as soon as there is a continuous line of nine buildings. Whoever has the majority of buildings on that line gets a 3 point bonus.


Any remaining area majorities are scored for each card. Blue earns a total of 7 (3+0+4) points. Red earns a total of 10 (2+2+3+2+1) points. The tied card is not scored by either player.


Now here's a twist. That player who did not get area majority on a card collects that card. In essence, the player who loses the area majority contest wins the card, which itself is worth points as a set at the end of the game. At the end of the game, organize your collected cards by their symbols. Score the highest value of each set, plus 1 for each extra card in that set.


Or maybe islands?
I'm not really feeling the real estate theme, so maybe Islands would work better? Each cell is an island and the goal is to populate islands, building "bridges" of straight lines across the archipelago.

This suggests one more secondary mechanic. Imagine if each island offered its own resource, as shown above. I imagine these would be more island-themed eventually, so Taro, Coconuts, Mangoes, Bamboo, Shells, Fish, Pigs, Obsidian, and Water. Think of this as a worker placement game. Each time you place a stone, you acquire a resource from that island.

Resources would be noted on a separate board as shown above. Collecting the first of any resource starts you at a deficit, but eventually the reward is greater than any potential area majority or three-in-a-row.


So when your opponent leads you to one of the boards, you're not only thinking about area majority or getting three-in-a-row, you're also thinking about the resource you want to get and which one you want to avoid. Being too diversified eventually leads to a wash, as shown above. Sometimes you want to sacrifice valuable lines or areas just to make sure you don't set forth on too costly a quest for mangos.



And in conclusion...
That's my first stab at a GTTT of some kind. Un-solve the original game by adding the following ingredients to make otherwise sub-optimal choices more enticing.
  • Random starting layout: Makes memorizing opening moves less useful.
  • Points as victory condition: By removing the original victory condition and using points instead, we remove the whole logic behind the solution to the original game. Now you're not just seeking three-in-a-row, but any number of other ways to score points, which includes three-in-a-row.

The methods of scoring points are pretty standard ingredients for eurogames. The minimum and maximum possible values are noted as well. The maximums assume a very extreme circumstance though, like the game continuing until the board is full or all the cards having optimal set-collection.
  • First to Three-in-a-Row from Cards (Variable 0–45)
  • Area Majority for Triggering Endgame (3)
  • Area Majority from Cards (Variable 0–5)
  • Set Collection (Variable 0–21)
  • Worker Placement on Resources (-18 – 25)

All that being the case, three-in-a-row is still a pretty strong incentive. It's tactically easier to do and leads to higher potential rewards depending on the board layout. That keeps in the spirit of the original game, but may still be unbalanced. I hope the other bonuses and considerations would make the decisions more satisfying though.

There are plenty more directions you could take this, of course. I recommend checking out Kory Heath's Blockers as a fine example of how to shape a 9x9 grid into a fiendish puzzle game. Whether mine is any good, I don't know.

For one thing, I have this loosey goosey idea of centering the grid on each card, thus making room for two unique sets of values for either player. So one player would find it more valuable to get area majority on a card while her opponent would prefer the first three-in-a-row.

And that's not even taking into consideration background art to add yet another level of information. But for now, five ways of scoring seems like enough.

Persecuting omega

This white knighting gamma can't figure out why men get so angry when people complain about creepers:
I confess: I still don't get it. We write about things that make people angry: sometimes on purpose (u mad bro?), sometimes because the topic interests us. But few topics are as consistent in their ability to draw anger and trolling and bizarre visitors as the issue of sexual harassment and responses to it.

If I talk about my experiences training clients' employees in how to avoid sexual harassment, I draw nutters. If I talk about sites that discuss bad behavior towards women in gaming culture — great sites like Fat, Ugly, or Slutty — people get angry. Discussions of outing and vigorous more-speech remedies seem to be more controversial when the target is chosen for being a creeper rather than, say, a racist. Even the abstract subject of this post — the meta-examination of why the subject of harassment is so incendiary to some — generates some of the most vituperative comments we ever see here.
This attitude is common among low-ranking men who don't understand the socio-sexual hierarchy.  They don't understand that by talking about the subjective realm of "sexual harassment" as if it is objective, they are usually taking a position that unfairly persecutes the lower-ranking men in society.

And just as the cruelest school bullies are those who are just above the lowest boys on the totem pole, the most clueless white knights are the gammas who have mastered their creepy instincts and don't see why everyone else doesn't do the same.  Because they a) know they are at least potentially creepy, and, b) have managed to modify their behavior in a manner to control it, they believe that sexual harassment is objective, universal, and intentional.

None of those things are true.

You see, here is the observable fact of the matter.  Men of sufficiently high socio-sexual status cannot sexually harass women.  They simply cannot do it. A man of sufficiently high rank can, in public, grab a woman's ass, squeeze her breasts while making honking sounds, stick his tongue down her throat, sling her over his shoulder and haul her off to a bedroom, slide his hand down her pants and inside her underwear, or tell her to lift her skirt and turn around, without ever hearing a single word of protest.

Millions of women don't read 50 Shades of Grey because they so perfectly hate the idea of men ordering them around.

And a high-status man can do all of those things without having met her or even knowing what her name is. For example, compare the difference in the public reaction to direct complaints that Bill Clinton had raped various women to reports that Anthony Weiner had been sexting land whales.

Clinton not only raped and assaulted multiple women over the years, but inserted a cigar in an White House intern's body in the most power-imbalanced employment relationship that is even theoretically possible in the United States.  He got a pass from the women and everyone else, with female journalists offering "one free grope" and volunteering head, simply because he is an alpha.  Weiner, who is more of a Washington insider than Clinton was prior to his presidency, provokes considerable disgust for far lesser sexual offenses.

It's all about sexual dominance.  The gamma can offend a woman by simply looking at her.  The alpha not only won't offend that same woman by ordering her to lift her skirt and turn around, but the chances are very high that she will obey him even if she hasn't actually met him.  Even if she won't obey on the spot, she will still laugh, slap his shoulder, and tell him "you're so bad!"

So, it is the intrinsically false perspective of the white knight that provokes anger and irritation from a wide range of men.  The higher ranking men are not angry, they are merely expressing contempt for the mouthy gamma and his cluelessness.  The lower-ranking men are angry at the unfairness of how they are targeted and castigated for behavior that is objectively less egregious than what they see their higher-ranking counterparts, and, for that matter, women, are permitted to do with impunity.

Lecturing creepers is, for the most part, bullying of omegas by gammas.  It's wrong-headed and it's wrong.  And it provokes anger for the same reason that most bullying does.

Consider, for example, the average sex scene in a SF/F novel written by a gamma male.  Now reverse the sexes.  I will bet that more than 50 percent of those sex scenes would qualify as "sexual harassment", if not sexual assault, if committed by a gamma or omega male.

Tuesday, July 30, 2013

Ratings: Wheel and Jeopardy creep up

There really wasn't much movement for syndie game shows in the week of July 15-21. But the top two did add a few tenths as they continued to recover from some season lows a while back. The news was a bit worse for Steve and Meredith, but poor Jerry got a small gift. TVNewsCheck has all the numbers...

Wheel of Fortune 6.0 - up a tick
Jeopardy 5.9 - up a couple ticks and hard on the heels of the soulmate
Family Feud 4.3 - down a tick
Millionaire 2.3 - also down a tick as the clock ticks down (sorry) for Meredith
Baggage 1.0 - Jerry moves up a tenth of a point!

TV by the Numbers has the healthier looking viewer averages for the top two: Wheel of Fortune 9.2 million (weekend repeat 4.2 million), Jeopardy 8.7 million, Family Feud 6.4 million, Millionaire 3.2 million. You know, it's pretty hard nowadays for any show anywhere to average nine million viewers.

Douglas Pucci says that GSN had a decent but not outstanding week for July 22-28. 346K/275K viewership averages prime time/total day. Seen better, seen worse.

Google certificates upgrade in progress

Author Photo
By Tim Bray, Google Identity Team

As part of our continuous effort to increase Internet security for Google and for our users, we are in the process of migrating from 1024-bit to 2048-bit certificates. We will also be changing our certificate chain.

This roll-out has already started and will be completed in the next few months.

We asked some of our experts if they could think of scenarios where client software might have trouble with this change, and came up with a couple. The first is people who are using a very old home-compiled version of OpenSSL with an out-of-date CA database. Then there are instances of embedded-client software with (against the best advice of all the experts) hard-coded certificate logic, perhaps for reasons of saving space.

Having said that, most client software should work just fine. Feel free to visit our Frequently Asked Questions page for more info and, to be sure, test your clients against cert-test.sandbox.google.com.


Tim says: By day, I help in the struggle against passwords on the Internet.
The rest of my life is fully documented on my blog.


Posted by Scott Knaster, Editor

Augustus and the Search for the Next "Gamer's Bingo"

Augustus as Priest, Palazzo Massimo

Paolo Mori's Augustus was nominated for this year's Spiel de Jahres, and rightly so. I found it a clever and satisfying evolution of classic Bingo. In fact, it's often called Roman Bingo or Gamer's Bingo around my local gaming circles. Neither label has quite been intoned in derogatory manner, but I get the feeling it's sort of a dubious honor.

You hear that term, "Gamer's ____," applied to any game that has a mass market central mechanic at the core of otherwise more modern gameplay. You might describe dice games like Alien Frontiers or Roll Through the Ages as "Gamer's Yahtzee" for example. These "Gamer's" versions of classic games are chimeric beasts, with the heart of a mainstream game and the body of gamer's game.

Here are a few common tips for making a "Gamer's ____" game, in terms of Roman cliches for your entertainment. (Are you not entertained?)


All Roads Lead to Bingo.
Take an existing mainstream game (ideally one in the public domain) and apply a typically hobby-oriented theme. The challenge is finding the theme that complements the emergent properties of the core game. In Augustus, Roman conspirators (bingo players) are seeking clues (bingo calls) in order to effectively execute their conspiracies (bingo cards). Yeah, it's a very thin theme, but it doesn't contradict the gameplay. Bingo lends itself well to ratcheting tension, multiplayer groups, and a satisfying climax when you can yell "Bingo!" or "Ave Caesar!"

Bingo as the Romans Bingo.
Your game may be clearly based on a pre-existing classic game, but the theme is what drives all the other secondary and tertiary mechanics. For example, the cards in Augustus represent either a military campaign or a senator's influence. Each card requires a certain combination of Roman-themed bingo symbols to complete. Once complete, each is worth points and each has a unique effect that can cascade into other effects. It's easy to write a fiction around these outcomes, too. "I finally got that last legionnaire, which won the favor of this Senator, who in turn supported my campaign in Britannia."

Veni, Vidi, Bingo.
Keep the game compact. You want to be in and out within 45 minutes, including any setup/breakdown time. Longer than 45 minutes or bigger than a chess board starts going outside the bounds of a casual play experience. Augustus lasts about 30 minutes and all the components can fit in the velvet bag that comes in the rather oversized box.



Naturally this has me thinking about what the next "Gamer's ____" will be and how successful it might be in the game market. Will a gamer theme turn off anyone interested in the original inspiration? Will the original inspiration face profound disinterest among gamers? Are good production values and marketing enough get a first play? Is the game satisfying enough for its target audience to keep them coming back?

A failure of principle

More than a few men around the androsphere are disappointed, if not openly disgusted, by former anti-marriage advocate Mark Minter's unexpected announcement of his upcoming nuptuals.  Roosh, in particular, was particularly displeased.
He is like the conservative politician who espouses family values while diddling young boys on the side. He is the PUA who sells products on how to get laid but can’t even approach a single woman, someone who creates a false character to gain either money or—in this case—praise, at the expense of everyone’s trust. For that reason, he has lost all respect from me. If he were to knock on my door, starving, begging for food and drink, I would only place the sustenance on my front step. He would not be permitted to enter my home so that the foul odor of hypocrisy that now trails him does not infect my place of sleep.

I hope his name will forever be synonymous with a man who doesn’t live by his own code. He deserves to be permanently exiled from the manosphere community. 
This is an illustrative lesson in the importance of discernment when it comes to those we accept as opinion leaders or even take seriously as commenters.  While everyone is fallible, and everyone is capable of changing their minds as they are introduced to new information, Minter's behavior is hypocritical and unprincipled to such an extent that it indicates he never genuinely held the principles he espoused.

The Chateau, on the other hand, is considerably more blase' about the matter:
What a slap in the face this news must be to the barbarian peasants who incessantly claim CH is about nothing but pumping and dumping bar skanks.  Excuse me, good haters, but I don’t see your blogs resulting in any nuptial engagements.
As for me, I'm not familiar with Minter and I have nothing for or against the man.  But I will note that his response to criticism was not only juvenile and disrespectful, it was irrelevant.  Minter's vulgar response doesn't provide any rational basis for his massive change of heart, it doesn't even begin to address any of the very criticisms that he himself had previously articulated,  or indicate sufficient integrity to admit the way in which his actions belie his previous words.

However, Minter's actions should not have taken so many people by surprise. Very, very few of the writers and commenters in the androsphere are natural alphas. Most are deltas or gammas who embraced Game in order to improve their success with the opposite sex, and as such, both their rhetoric and socio-sexual personas tend to be exaggerated to some degree.  Again, being unfamiliar with him, I can't say to what extent that was true of Minter, but it appears to have been a considerable amount, since so readily he abandoned his oft-professed principles for a mid-thirties divorcee.

I sincerely wish Mr. Minter and his bride-to-be well.  I hope their marriage works out well for everyone involved. I suspect they have a better shot than many given that his fiance is familiar with many of the potential pitfalls involved. But I also hope that Minter understands that he is finished as an individual who merits being taken seriously by the androsphere.  Like Edward VIII of England, Mark Minter will henceforth serve as a cautionary example of how readily men are capable of sacrificing their honor, their integrity, and their credibility for love of a woman.  One hopes that Mr. Minter will have the sense to follow the Duke of Windsor's lead in stepping away from participation in the public discourse.

I don't think one should be too harsh on Minter for violating his former principles.  This is hardly the first time a man has done something out of the ordinary for love.  Let the man live and love in peace and privacy. However, if he attempts to continue to maintain his position as an outspoken figure in the androsphere, it would be hard for anyone to be too harsh on him.

Monday, July 29, 2013

Fury of Dracula session - with house rules

As I mentioned in my last post about Fury of Dracula we were a bit frustrated with the core rules, and having found a list of really good thematic house rules we ran another session - and liked the changes.

It made for a more interesting game. You can read the changes HERE and adding to them we also used the rule that "Evasion" only allows Dracula to jump two cities away (pretty much like Wolf form).

Evasion is such a crappy rule in the core rules, it adds nothing and in essence only resets the game - making it twice as long. The new Evasion rule removed that element. Anders who played Dracula played very skillfully, but the rest of us who played the Hunters had a great time chasing and cornering him time and time again. It was a much more exciting and tense game than if we had not used the house rules.

As such I can really recommend them for anyone who seeks to spice things up.

Our session ended with a victory for Dracula, but it had been a very hard struggle up to the very end. The reason the hunters failed was mainly due to the lack of proper items to take on Dracula himself.

Climb on the express

Buy a Vowel reports an interesting twist in Wheel of Fortune gameplay for the upcoming season. Sounds like a gamble for some lucky (or unlucky) contestant who lands on the "Express" wedge.

When landed on, the player must first call a consonant for $1,000 each. If it's there, the player will get the $1,000 per letter and then they must decide either to take another normal turn or to "hop aboard the Express", meaning they keep calling consonants for $1,000 each or buying vowels until they solve the puzzle. However, if the player calls a wrong letter anywhere along the way, they go Bankrupt.

The board chews over the news, and there are naturally some traditionalist grumbles. But quite a few posters seem to like the idea as a nice change-up in the play of the game. The biggest complaint is that hopping on the express might eliminate some wheel-spinning. Well, yeah, but the big wheel should still spin enough to keep most viewers happy.

Love it or hate it, the Express is apparently coming to the third round this fall. At least it's something new to look for.

Class has started! Design Cards for Tabletop Games on SkillShare!



Want to learn how to design a whole deck of cards really efficiently in InDesign using DataMerge? Awesome, 'cause I just wrapped production on my SkillShare class! The goal of the class is to get you comfortable enough with InDesign that you can bang out a deck of readable prototype cards for playtesting. You don't need to be an experienced graphic designer!

ENROLL HERE for over two hours of detailed video tutorial.


First, we start with an overview of the context for any card design. Is it held in hand? How many are held in hand at once? Can the card be oriented in either direction? Can it be seen from a distance? How big should my icons or text be?


Then there's a close-up instruction on the best practices for cutting your card prototypes with an x-acto or with a paper cutter. If you love close-ups of my hands, you'll love this segment.


But for the vast majority of the class, we focus on InDesign's DataMerge functionality and how you can use it to design dozens of cards at once. The heart of it all is the spreadsheet, which if you're like me was very intimidating at first, but hopefully I make it a little less scary for you.







The remaining lessons go over how to use DataMerge to set up a deck of euro-style resource cards, a deck of fancy playing cards with dual-suits, and a deck of CCG cards with in-line icons.

This is very much a technical class. The cards I make in the tutorial are kept very minimal (and pretty ugly) so you can follow along with the process without worrying about your design skills. Come, join us!

Metaphorical height

As this article from a tall Englishwoman shows, "will you date a shorter man" may be the ideal rebuke to a broad variety of female complaints concerning male preferences.  It also usefully exposes the myth of sexual equality, as men clearly have no similar disinclination for dating shorter women:
At just under 5ft 10in, I consider myself a tall woman. The average male in England is 5ft 10in, while the typical female is a mere 5ft 5ins, so you could say I’m well over average height for my gender. What’s worse, according to statistics, half the men in the country are my height or shorter. When it comes to dating, that makes the chances of finding a potential boyfriend slimmer than most – if, like me, you care about finding a man who's taller than you.... most of my female friends admit that it's still important for them to date or marry a man who is taller than them. And not only a bit taller either, a good two inches taller is required. 
The desire for a man to be taller is the most basic form of hypergamy.  And it is an important lesson for men to keep in mind; she wants you to be taller because she wants you to be more dominant than her.  But simply being taller will not suffice if you refuse to provide any other aspects of dominance in the relationship.

Think of "being taller" as a metaphor and apply it to other aspects of the relationship. If she is attracted to literal height, she will respond favorably to metaphorical height as well.

The Serious Fire Season Has Begun in the Northwest: Meteorological Threats Ahead

During the past week two major wildfires have initiated and spread to thousand of acres here in the Northwest:  the Mile Marker 28 fire near Satus Pass in south central Washington and the Colockum Tarps fire south of Wenatchee.  And meteorological issues threaten to make the fire situation worse at the end of the week.

Sunday morning's visible satellite image (at 8AM) shows lots of smoke in eastern Washington (mainly from the Satus Pass fire.


The Colockum Pass fire increased in size during the day (see satellite image around 7 PM Sunday below).   Some thunderstorms developed over the north Cascades and if you look closely you can see a cumulus cloud in the middle of the Colockum Pass smoke plume.  The heat was sufficient to cause the air to become highly buoyant, producing a tall cumulus cloud-- called pyrocumulus. 

Lori and Don Robbins sent me a picture of the pyrocumlus from a vantage point in Ellensburg.


And amazing picture from"Sooperfly".   The smoke rises to a level at which it is no longer buoyant and spreads downwind.  The cumulus cloud, with extra warmth from the release of latent heat (heat is released as water is condensed) can rise even higher.



A very clear satellite image of the smoke from the fires was available earlier Sunday afternoon from the NASA MODIS satellite:


A big issue for the Colockum fire (and to a lesser degree the Satus Pass fire) has been the strong westerly winds pushing eastward down the Cascade foothills on Sunday, forced by a strong pressure difference across the Cascades.  This strong winds and large pressure difference are associated with the cooler air that has moved into the west side of the mountains.

Here are the maximum winds for the 24h ending 9 PM Sunday.  Lots of locations getting to 20-30 mph, a number reaching 30-40 mph.  Not good for fighting fires.


The UW WRF model predicted the strong winds on Sunday (see graphic for 5 PM), but forecasts a major weakening on Monday...which should be a boon to the firefighters.
But a bigger threat is on the meteorological horizon...lightning caused fires.  Today, there was quite a bit of lightning in the northeast Cascades and the Okanogan--did they initiate any new fires?  But more ominously, the weather situation will be very favorable for thunderstorms during the middle and end of this week.  Such lighting, plus the dry conditions of the "fuels" at the surface, will produce a substantial threat of new wildfires.

Here is the current fire danger map from the USDA Forest Service.  Eastern Washington has a substantial risk, but eastern Oregon and Idaho are even drier.