The bad news is that Craig Anderson has already proven, unlike Evgeni Nabokov, to be a real goalie. The good news is the Pens already have 2 goals on him.
Look for Morrow to be a factor in this series, albeit in limited ice time. He'll get in Anderson's kitchen. He already did on Martin's goal.
Malkin was brilliant in the first period (with the notable exception of his power-play killing penalty). If he plays like this, then not sure who touches the Pens ...
... unless, of course, Vokoun puts a couple more Fleurys in his own net.
Daniel Alfredsson's hair looks atrocious. Sorry we talk so much about hair. But come on.
Sutter-Iginla was a really bizarre choice to start the late 4-on-4. Sutter couldn't find chemistry with a Bunsen Burner and a barrel of Ammonium nitrate.
Showing posts with label staal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label staal. Show all posts
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Monday, April 8, 2013
It's not an honor just to be nominated; Pens clinch, and other NHL thoughts
By Finesse
There's a part of you that knows you shouldn't take for granted that the Penguins clinched a playoff spot thanks to Buffalo's shootout win over New Jersey last night. But then you look at the Pens' roster and realize that clinching a playoff spot for this team probably shouldn't even need to be mentioned, let alone celebrated. Sure, we can be proud that the Pens aren't the Pirates, but if the Pirates had Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, the chubby guy on the Tigers, Steven Strasburg, and a bunch of other good pitchers whose names I don't know, then they could take the playoffs for granted, too. Having lived through through the leaner years at the beginning of the century doesn't turn making the playoffs into an achievement in itself. It just makes you appreciate that Dick Tarnstrom isn't the Pens' best player anymore.
- Speaking of the playoffs, break up the Caps! Ever since we pointed out that Ovechkin's statistics had declined in his late 20s much more significantly than those of other all-time greats, he's arguably been the best player in the league and ... wait for it ... should start getting some legitimate MVP buzz. He won't -- and shouldn't -- win, mainly because of how terrible the Southeast division is. Unless the Caps end up with a point total that is more in line with other division leaders, it's too easy to point to that dog-crap division as the reason why they're in the playoffs.
Our post still stands, both as mathematically valid at the time and for recognizing that he was far from washed up. Good for him for getting it together over the past month, but it raises the obvious question: what the hell happened the past two years?
- The biggest surprise in the East has to be the dramatic decline of the Carolina Hurricanes. When we did mid-season projections a month ago, Carolina looked like a lurking sleeper. But since beating the Caps 4-0 on March 12, they are 1-10-1 and have been outscored 46 to 18. And they have to be disappointed in Jordan Staal, who has only 22 points in 37 games and is a -13. That's a 49 point pace for a guy singed at $6 million/year for the next 10 years. The good news for the Staal brothers, though, is that now at least two of the brothers can make the family vacation this year. The one that starts in late April.
- Brandon Sutter, by the way, has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 12 games. Or if you prefer, 1 point in his last three and a half hours of ice time.
- It's so tempting to stare at the standings and think about how the seeding will shake out. The most enticing first-round match-up that's getting more likely by the day is Capitals vs. Rangers in the 3 vs. 6 match-up They've played in 3 of the past 4 playoffs (Caps won in '09 and '11, Rangers won last year), every game is a nailbiter, and John Tortorella threw a water bottle at some dumb Caps fan who was probably trying to impress Chris Cooley. Round 4 between these two clubs would be too fun.
-
- Who even knew Margaret Thatcher was still alive?
- Remember how we were supposed to be told a more definitive time table for Crosby's return late last week? Any time now would fine please thanks.
- Ron Cook says Evgeni Malkin needs to play better.
There's a part of you that knows you shouldn't take for granted that the Penguins clinched a playoff spot thanks to Buffalo's shootout win over New Jersey last night. But then you look at the Pens' roster and realize that clinching a playoff spot for this team probably shouldn't even need to be mentioned, let alone celebrated. Sure, we can be proud that the Pens aren't the Pirates, but if the Pirates had Josh Hamilton, Albert Pujols, Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, the chubby guy on the Tigers, Steven Strasburg, and a bunch of other good pitchers whose names I don't know, then they could take the playoffs for granted, too. Having lived through through the leaner years at the beginning of the century doesn't turn making the playoffs into an achievement in itself. It just makes you appreciate that Dick Tarnstrom isn't the Pens' best player anymore.
- Speaking of the playoffs, break up the Caps! Ever since we pointed out that Ovechkin's statistics had declined in his late 20s much more significantly than those of other all-time greats, he's arguably been the best player in the league and ... wait for it ... should start getting some legitimate MVP buzz. He won't -- and shouldn't -- win, mainly because of how terrible the Southeast division is. Unless the Caps end up with a point total that is more in line with other division leaders, it's too easy to point to that dog-crap division as the reason why they're in the playoffs.
Our post still stands, both as mathematically valid at the time and for recognizing that he was far from washed up. Good for him for getting it together over the past month, but it raises the obvious question: what the hell happened the past two years?
 |
| "I have a theory on that..." |
- Brandon Sutter, by the way, has 1 goal and 0 assists in his last 12 games. Or if you prefer, 1 point in his last three and a half hours of ice time.
- It's so tempting to stare at the standings and think about how the seeding will shake out. The most enticing first-round match-up that's getting more likely by the day is Capitals vs. Rangers in the 3 vs. 6 match-up They've played in 3 of the past 4 playoffs (Caps won in '09 and '11, Rangers won last year), every game is a nailbiter, and John Tortorella threw a water bottle at some dumb Caps fan who was probably trying to impress Chris Cooley. Round 4 between these two clubs would be too fun.
-
- Who even knew Margaret Thatcher was still alive?
- Remember how we were supposed to be told a more definitive time table for Crosby's return late last week? Any time now would fine please thanks.
- Ron Cook says Evgeni Malkin needs to play better.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Podcast: Mike Colligan joins us to talk Penguins trade deadline
Mike Colligan of The Hockey Writers and Forbes SportsMoney joins us to dissect the Pens heading into the NHL trade deadline on April 3rd. What do the Pens need? What can they afford? Who is expendable? Who are realistic targets? What will Malkin and Letang's next contracts look like? This podcast gets deep.
We are switching to a new podcast host so it may be a while before the new feed shows up in iTunes. If the player above is not working, you can listen or download here.
We are switching to a new podcast host so it may be a while before the new feed shows up in iTunes. If the player above is not working, you can listen or download here.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Breaking down the Eastern Conference playoff picture
By Finesse (follow me on Twitter)
Saturday night in Toronto, Sidney Crosby played what may have been the best one point game of his career. Last night's five assist performance against the Islanders -- four of which were second assists -- could have been viewed as a market correction, but for the fact that he deserved every single one of those assists. He should have had ten points this weekend. The "Pens need a top-6 winger" notion has been moved to its rightful place at the bottom of Ray Shero's to-do list at the trade deadline. Even Ron Cook comes to this conclusion in his War on Declarative Sentences in this morning's PG. (Ex. "Do you think Crosby is loving what Kunitz and Dupuis are doing?" Gee, Ron. I guess I'm not sure?)
The Pens have a 7-point lead over the Devils in the Atlantic with a hectic week of games starting tomorrow. The shortened schedule might suck if you have a wife and family who expects to see you on occasion, but if you don't, then the idea of Boston, Toronto, New York, Boston, Washington in a 7-day period gives you an ooey-gooey feeling. The Pens, with 36 points, are two points behind Montreal for the #1 seed, but the Bruins are lurking with 35 points and 4 games in hand. Boston is the class of the East, which is why tomorrow night's matchup is the first of the season to get the following Official GTOG Designation: HUGE.
With the season halfway done, let's take a spin around the East and look at each team's playoff chances (according to this site) and where we think things will wind up. Click to continue reading...
Boston Bruins: 100% chance of making the playoffs
The best thing about the Bruins is that they're built to beat quality teams in a 7-game series, not beat the Islanders 7-1. Their top-6 is almost perfectly constructed: they have high-end talent (Krejci, Bergeron), established talent (Horton), talented bruisers (Lucic), obnoxious and repugnant talent (Marchand), and emerging elite talent (Seguin). They have the best defenseman in the league (Chara), their PK is at 92%, and their goalie has a 1.97 GAA and .927 SV%. The Bruins are the scariest matchup in the East. Nothing that has happened this season gives us any confidence that the Pens' defense will be able to slow the Bruins from having their way around the Pens' net.
The bad sign if you're a Bruins' fan is that Chris Bourque was not only on your team, but he played in 18 games. It doesn't matter that he was waived three days ago (SPOILER ALERT: he wasn't claimed). That stink is still in your locker room. And as much as the Bruins scare the Pens, the reverse is also undoubtedly true. Kuntiz and Dupuis can make life a nightmare for Chara (read this) and if you get him off his game, the Bruins are a different team. The Pens are 8-4 against Boston in the last 3 years, including 3-1 last year (with 46 shots in the only loss). This is the Eastern Conference's heavyweight fight.
Mid-season prediction: #1 seed.
Montreal Canadiens: 99.9% chance of making the playoffs
No one thought they'd be this good; no one thinks they are actually this good. Therrien is a difference maker, they have impressively balanced scoring (12 guys with 10+ points), and we know better than to underestimate them. But they don't stack up talent-wise with the Pens and they aren't built to exploit the Pens' biggest defensive weaknesses: clearing pucks and bodies from in front. Maybe we're underestimating them again?
Mid-season prediction: #4 seed.
Pittsburgh Penguins: 99.7% chance of making the playoffs
The Pens have a big enough lead in the division with only 22 games left that a few well-timed wins over the Rangers and Devils should be enough to do the trick, even if Malkin is out for more than the 1-2 week current estimate. We write enough about the Penguins. Let's just pray for health.
Mid-season prediction: #2 seed
Toronto Maple Leafs: 92.6% chance of making the playoffs
It seems like the Leafs, and particularly Phil Kessel, are often thrown into the seller category when trade deadline scenarios are discussed. (Wait. Is that a link to a hockey story from something called the "Latinos Post?" Yes. Yes it is). This notion does not make a lot of sense. Kessel may be "underperforming," but he still has 23 points in 26 games, keeps defenses on their heels with his speed, and is signed through next season with a very reasonable cap hit ($5.4 million). I'm not saying they should start dealing prospects at the deadline, but they haven't been in the playoffs since 2004. They should roll the dice with what they got.
Mid-season prediction: #7 seed
Ottawa Senators: 88.8% chance of making the playoffs
They're this season's 2010-11 Penguins: They have very limited offense and all of their best players are hurt, but they were good enough at the start of the year that if they can manage to sneak a loser-point out of the games they lose there's no reason they can't hang on to a playoff spot. The shortened season puts them in a really tough spot heading into the trade deadline. The Spezza and Karlsson injuries give them the feel of being sellers, but they only have to hang on for 23 games and they can sneak in the playoffs and hope everyone gets healthy.
Mid-season prediction: #8 seed
Carolina Hurricanes: 88.1% chance of making the playoffs
The dark-horse to make a deep playoff run. Their top-5 forwards are very skilled, their 3rd and 4th lines are deep and experienced and, most importantly, they have a lot of room to get better. Five of their best players -- Jordan Staal, Jamie McBain, Jiri Tlusty, Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk -- are still in the ascendance phase of their careers. We know they're all good players, but we aren't sure yet how good they are. Semin has been better than they could have hoped and Eric Staal may end up being the best non-Penguin forward in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Throw in a very aggressive management team, and this team has the potential to get to the Cup finals and sabotage TV ratings in the process.
Mid-season prediction: #3 seed
New York Rangers: 84.1% chance of making the playoffs
Another team with a lot of upside. The Rick Nash trade left them very top-heavy (their 7th highest scoring forward has six points), but they can be so strong defensively and in net that if their PP can land somewhere in the 20-25% range in the playoffs, they could go 12-9 and end up in the Cup finals. I think they were a better team last year when Dubinsky and Anisimov gave them the forward depth they lack this season, but only slightly.
Prediction: #5 seed
New Jersey Devils: 43.9% chance of making the playoffs
Without Brodeur, they're a mess. You never want to bury Brodeur, but he's 40 years old, hasn't played in 3 weeks because of mysterious back "soreness," and there are unconfirmed reports that he's lost feeling in his hands. That's been a recurring condition for Brodeur, as in 2003 he explained to his ex-wife during their divorce that the only reason he had sex with her sister was: "I didn't realize it wasn't you. I lost feeling in my hands."
They're the hardest team to count out because they're in the mix every year, but their team stats are below average (23rd in GF, 15th in GA, 18th in PP%, 25th in PK% and -10 goal differential) and the Parise/Cup hangover effect is lingering. I think it's a narrow miss for them
Prediction: Miss playoffs
Winnipeg: 35% chance of making the playoffs
It would be fun for Winnipeg to be in the playoffs if only to hear Olli Jokinen's interview before Game 1: "I'm vaguely familiar with this notion of the Stanley Cup. I believe it's that thing Canadian people get excited about every spring while I'm playing for Finland in the World Championships, but I'm not 100% certain."
Here's their problem: they aren't very good. If every team in the East played to their highest potential, they're probably only better than Florida and Buffalo. Andrew Ladd has two Stanley Cups with two different teams, but he was a depth player on those teams. Nothing against him, but when he's your best guy, you don't win 7-game series. They'll linger and make it interesting, but aren't talented enough.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning: 26.6% chance of making the playoffs
We flip-flop on Tampa more than on any other team. Sometimes we're convinced they suck. Other times, especially when their PP is clicking, they look like a lock to chase every opponent's goalie. They have really high-end talent, but there's a problem with it. Before I explain, a disclaimer: I'm about to use the plus/minus statistic. I know it's not perfect, calm down.
Tampa's five best forwards are: Stamkos (-1), St. Louis (E), Purcell (+2), Lecavailer (E), Conacher (-1). That's a combined Even.
Compare that to the 5 highest scoring forwards on the top 5 teams in the East: Penguins (+48), Canadiens (+17), Bruins (+61), Hurricanes (+51), Maple Leafs (+14).
Of course it's not a perfect comparison, and obviously goaltending and defense factor in, but the underlying trend is clear: the damage that their top-5 forwards can do to your team can be undone. While they're still on the ice. Especially when their goalies are all backups, and this guy is one of their defensemen.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs.
Philadelphia Flyers: 14.2% chance of making the playoffs
There's a 100% chance that I desperately want the Flyers to miss the playoffs. I just don't think they're going to. Because that would be too good to be true.
Their problem is that they aren't good when they play good teams: 5-10 against teams currently in the playoffs. Bryzgalov's save percentage is under 90%, and if you think Tampa's top 5 scoring forwards have a plus/minus problem, Philly's are a combined -29. What they have going for them is that we know they're better than this. Or at least we think we do.
They have played more games than anyone else in the East, so they have only 3 games in the next 13 days. Then they're in Pittsburgh. If the Pens put their foot on Philly's throat with last week's come from behind win, Sunday, March 24th may be the opportunity to step down.
Mid-season prediction: Terrible karma if I say they'll miss the playoffs. #6 seed
Washington Capitals: 13.8% chance of making the playoffs
Say what you want about Ovechkin -- and we will have plenty to say when the time is right to drop our official rebuttal to Neil Greenberg's indefensible assertion that Ovechkin's decline is consistent with the declines of the all-time greats -- but he had one of the funniest sequences I can remember during yesterday's Caps-Rangers game. During a delayed penalty call against Ovechkin with the game tied at 1, Ovechkin took a second penalty. The Rangers scored during the delay, then scored again while Ovechkin was in the box. If there's a Gordie Howe Hat Trick, there has to be a name for this penalty-penalty-goal-goal sequence by Ovechkin. The Ovechquad?
I'm on the record as thinking as recently as three days ago that they will make the playoffs, but that's probably because my perception of the Caps is based off of their roster four years ago. It's entirely possible that they just aren't that good. And mentally, even with their third coach in a year, they're still an absolute mess. Just look at what Semin was last year with the Caps (horrible) and what he is this year with Carolina (a no-brainer All-Star). There's no possible way that anyone on this team enjoys playing with Ovechkin which really isn't that big of a problem when you consider that he's only the captain, the highest paid player in the league, and signed through 2021.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
New York Islanders: 12.3% chance of making the playoffs
Something is wrong with the way standings points are given out if this Islanders team still has a 12.3% chance of making the playoffs. They can wreak a little bit of havoc on the standings because they can score goals in bunches, but they lose big too frequently, have no home-ice advantage at all, and they have a 37-year old goalie who has no interest in being on the team.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
Buffalo Sabres: 1% chance of making the playoffs
After the end of Pens-Isles last night, I flipped to the third period of the Flyers-Sabres. Man, is Buffalo bad. They have to be the most depressing team in the league to root for, narrowly edging out the Florida Panthers but only because no one roots for the Florida Panthers.
The only intriguing thing about them is that they have Steve Ott, signed through next year at a very reasonable and affordable $2.85 million cap hit. Steve, how would you like to play 16 minutes/night on the best team in the East?
Mid-season prediction: June 30, 2013: "With the 30th overall pick, acquired from the Pittsburgh Penguins, the Buffalo Sabres select..."
Florida Panthers: 0.1% chance of making the playoffs
Saturday night in Toronto, Sidney Crosby played what may have been the best one point game of his career. Last night's five assist performance against the Islanders -- four of which were second assists -- could have been viewed as a market correction, but for the fact that he deserved every single one of those assists. He should have had ten points this weekend. The "Pens need a top-6 winger" notion has been moved to its rightful place at the bottom of Ray Shero's to-do list at the trade deadline. Even Ron Cook comes to this conclusion in his War on Declarative Sentences in this morning's PG. (Ex. "Do you think Crosby is loving what Kunitz and Dupuis are doing?" Gee, Ron. I guess I'm not sure?)
 |
| Is it just me, or do you think Kuntiz would rather score three goals than two goals? |
With the season halfway done, let's take a spin around the East and look at each team's playoff chances (according to this site) and where we think things will wind up. Click to continue reading...
Boston Bruins: 100% chance of making the playoffs
The best thing about the Bruins is that they're built to beat quality teams in a 7-game series, not beat the Islanders 7-1. Their top-6 is almost perfectly constructed: they have high-end talent (Krejci, Bergeron), established talent (Horton), talented bruisers (Lucic), obnoxious and repugnant talent (Marchand), and emerging elite talent (Seguin). They have the best defenseman in the league (Chara), their PK is at 92%, and their goalie has a 1.97 GAA and .927 SV%. The Bruins are the scariest matchup in the East. Nothing that has happened this season gives us any confidence that the Pens' defense will be able to slow the Bruins from having their way around the Pens' net.
 |
| Going to start re-hating the Bruins so quickly tomorrow night. |
Mid-season prediction: #1 seed.
Montreal Canadiens: 99.9% chance of making the playoffs
No one thought they'd be this good; no one thinks they are actually this good. Therrien is a difference maker, they have impressively balanced scoring (12 guys with 10+ points), and we know better than to underestimate them. But they don't stack up talent-wise with the Pens and they aren't built to exploit the Pens' biggest defensive weaknesses: clearing pucks and bodies from in front. Maybe we're underestimating them again?
 |
| Nope. Wrong sweater. |
Pittsburgh Penguins: 99.7% chance of making the playoffs
The Pens have a big enough lead in the division with only 22 games left that a few well-timed wins over the Rangers and Devils should be enough to do the trick, even if Malkin is out for more than the 1-2 week current estimate. We write enough about the Penguins. Let's just pray for health.
Mid-season prediction: #2 seed
Toronto Maple Leafs: 92.6% chance of making the playoffs
It seems like the Leafs, and particularly Phil Kessel, are often thrown into the seller category when trade deadline scenarios are discussed. (Wait. Is that a link to a hockey story from something called the "Latinos Post?" Yes. Yes it is). This notion does not make a lot of sense. Kessel may be "underperforming," but he still has 23 points in 26 games, keeps defenses on their heels with his speed, and is signed through next season with a very reasonable cap hit ($5.4 million). I'm not saying they should start dealing prospects at the deadline, but they haven't been in the playoffs since 2004. They should roll the dice with what they got.
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| Hire a stylist, yes. Trade him, no. |
Ottawa Senators: 88.8% chance of making the playoffs
They're this season's 2010-11 Penguins: They have very limited offense and all of their best players are hurt, but they were good enough at the start of the year that if they can manage to sneak a loser-point out of the games they lose there's no reason they can't hang on to a playoff spot. The shortened season puts them in a really tough spot heading into the trade deadline. The Spezza and Karlsson injuries give them the feel of being sellers, but they only have to hang on for 23 games and they can sneak in the playoffs and hope everyone gets healthy.
Mid-season prediction: #8 seed
Carolina Hurricanes: 88.1% chance of making the playoffs
The dark-horse to make a deep playoff run. Their top-5 forwards are very skilled, their 3rd and 4th lines are deep and experienced and, most importantly, they have a lot of room to get better. Five of their best players -- Jordan Staal, Jamie McBain, Jiri Tlusty, Jeff Skinner and Justin Faulk -- are still in the ascendance phase of their careers. We know they're all good players, but we aren't sure yet how good they are. Semin has been better than they could have hoped and Eric Staal may end up being the best non-Penguin forward in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Throw in a very aggressive management team, and this team has the potential to get to the Cup finals and sabotage TV ratings in the process.
 |
| "Eric, I see you've enjoyed your time in front of the Buffalo net. Is there anything I can do to make you more comfortable here in front of Marc-Andre?" - Brooks Orpik |
New York Rangers: 84.1% chance of making the playoffs
Another team with a lot of upside. The Rick Nash trade left them very top-heavy (their 7th highest scoring forward has six points), but they can be so strong defensively and in net that if their PP can land somewhere in the 20-25% range in the playoffs, they could go 12-9 and end up in the Cup finals. I think they were a better team last year when Dubinsky and Anisimov gave them the forward depth they lack this season, but only slightly.
Prediction: #5 seed
New Jersey Devils: 43.9% chance of making the playoffs
Without Brodeur, they're a mess. You never want to bury Brodeur, but he's 40 years old, hasn't played in 3 weeks because of mysterious back "soreness," and there are unconfirmed reports that he's lost feeling in his hands. That's been a recurring condition for Brodeur, as in 2003 he explained to his ex-wife during their divorce that the only reason he had sex with her sister was: "I didn't realize it wasn't you. I lost feeling in my hands."
 |
| Very reliant on his hands. |
Prediction: Miss playoffs
Winnipeg: 35% chance of making the playoffs
It would be fun for Winnipeg to be in the playoffs if only to hear Olli Jokinen's interview before Game 1: "I'm vaguely familiar with this notion of the Stanley Cup. I believe it's that thing Canadian people get excited about every spring while I'm playing for Finland in the World Championships, but I'm not 100% certain."
Here's their problem: they aren't very good. If every team in the East played to their highest potential, they're probably only better than Florida and Buffalo. Andrew Ladd has two Stanley Cups with two different teams, but he was a depth player on those teams. Nothing against him, but when he's your best guy, you don't win 7-game series. They'll linger and make it interesting, but aren't talented enough.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
Tampa Bay Lightning: 26.6% chance of making the playoffs
We flip-flop on Tampa more than on any other team. Sometimes we're convinced they suck. Other times, especially when their PP is clicking, they look like a lock to chase every opponent's goalie. They have really high-end talent, but there's a problem with it. Before I explain, a disclaimer: I'm about to use the plus/minus statistic. I know it's not perfect, calm down.
Tampa's five best forwards are: Stamkos (-1), St. Louis (E), Purcell (+2), Lecavailer (E), Conacher (-1). That's a combined Even.
Compare that to the 5 highest scoring forwards on the top 5 teams in the East: Penguins (+48), Canadiens (+17), Bruins (+61), Hurricanes (+51), Maple Leafs (+14).
Of course it's not a perfect comparison, and obviously goaltending and defense factor in, but the underlying trend is clear: the damage that their top-5 forwards can do to your team can be undone. While they're still on the ice. Especially when their goalies are all backups, and this guy is one of their defensemen.
 |
| Brian Lee: A Tanner Glass-ian 22 games, 0 points, -13. |
Philadelphia Flyers: 14.2% chance of making the playoffs
There's a 100% chance that I desperately want the Flyers to miss the playoffs. I just don't think they're going to. Because that would be too good to be true.
Their problem is that they aren't good when they play good teams: 5-10 against teams currently in the playoffs. Bryzgalov's save percentage is under 90%, and if you think Tampa's top 5 scoring forwards have a plus/minus problem, Philly's are a combined -29. What they have going for them is that we know they're better than this. Or at least we think we do.
They have played more games than anyone else in the East, so they have only 3 games in the next 13 days. Then they're in Pittsburgh. If the Pens put their foot on Philly's throat with last week's come from behind win, Sunday, March 24th may be the opportunity to step down.
Mid-season prediction: Terrible karma if I say they'll miss the playoffs. #6 seed
Washington Capitals: 13.8% chance of making the playoffs
Say what you want about Ovechkin -- and we will have plenty to say when the time is right to drop our official rebuttal to Neil Greenberg's indefensible assertion that Ovechkin's decline is consistent with the declines of the all-time greats -- but he had one of the funniest sequences I can remember during yesterday's Caps-Rangers game. During a delayed penalty call against Ovechkin with the game tied at 1, Ovechkin took a second penalty. The Rangers scored during the delay, then scored again while Ovechkin was in the box. If there's a Gordie Howe Hat Trick, there has to be a name for this penalty-penalty-goal-goal sequence by Ovechkin. The Ovechquad?
 |
| Probably about to do something dumb. |
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
New York Islanders: 12.3% chance of making the playoffs
Something is wrong with the way standings points are given out if this Islanders team still has a 12.3% chance of making the playoffs. They can wreak a little bit of havoc on the standings because they can score goals in bunches, but they lose big too frequently, have no home-ice advantage at all, and they have a 37-year old goalie who has no interest in being on the team.
Mid-season prediction: Miss playoffs
Buffalo Sabres: 1% chance of making the playoffs
After the end of Pens-Isles last night, I flipped to the third period of the Flyers-Sabres. Man, is Buffalo bad. They have to be the most depressing team in the league to root for, narrowly edging out the Florida Panthers but only because no one roots for the Florida Panthers.
The only intriguing thing about them is that they have Steve Ott, signed through next year at a very reasonable and affordable $2.85 million cap hit. Steve, how would you like to play 16 minutes/night on the best team in the East?
 |
| "Is that something you might be interested in?" |
Florida Panthers: 0.1% chance of making the playoffs
Saturday, February 9, 2013
Recap: Pens lose to Devils during breakout session of National Whistleblowing Convention
By Finesse
The National Association of Whistleblowers held their annual meeting in Newark, New Jersey this afternoon but their small-group afternoon breakout session was interrupted by rival gangs of large men. Veteran whistleblowers Chris Lee and Gord Dwyer were leading a session titled, "Blowing Your Whistle: How to Do it Endlessly" on the floor of the Prudential Center when close to 40 men wearing red and white uniforms and armed with sticks, helmets, and rubber discs emerged from the tunnel and started chasing each other around. Though Lee and Dwyer were initially startled by the intrusion, they were able to quickly gain their composure and resume blowing their whistles only 44 seconds after the scary men started chasing each other.
Over the next two and a half hours, Lee and Dwyer combined to blow their whistles twenty times, delighting the raucous crowd of 17,625 whistleblowing fanatics. "I spend a lot of my hard earned money to come to these whistleblowing conventions," said Steve Turco, a lifelong member of the NAW who shelled out $465 to bring his wife and kids to the convention. "Today were some of the best whistles I've ever heard. I really feel like professional whistleblowing is about to take off in this country."
More after the jump...
- Refereeing is not to blame for the loss, but it did make the game thoroughly unenjoyable. This was not a game where the refs needed to call penalties to prevent the game from getting out of control. This was a game where the refs called way too many terrible penalties on both teams early, and then they let themselves get out of control. Once they started down this road of calling things that are not penalties, and have never been penalties, they couldn't reel themselves back in.
- Of couse, we all know that they will reel themselves back in during the playoffs. Of the 20 minor penalties in this game (8 on NJ, 12 on the Pens), maybe four get called in the playoffs. Maybe only four get called tomorrow. Who even knows. If Dan Bylsma had done what Mario did to Kerry Fraser, who would have blamed him?
- Having said all that, the two penalties that the Pens took to immediately negate power plays were really dumb -- Malkin's roughing penalty and Neal's slashing penalty. Although the shove that Malkin gave to Andy Greene's chin was very soft, as soon as we saw him do it, we all knew it was going to be a penalty based on the way the game was being called. Malkin should have known it, too.
- Brodeur was outstanding, and he's the real reason the Devils won. The Pens lose to the Devils in Jersey on a Saturday afternoon and Brodeur plays lights-out. We've seen this movie before.
- Another big time performance from Bob Bortuzzo (known more familiarly as Bobby B, or simply Bob). Last year the Flyers had 8 rookies who were completely inside the Pens' heads. It's refreshing to see some new blood on the Pens finally start mixing it up in a positive way. David Clarkson was totally off his game in the first period thanks to Bob.
- David Clarkson in a 7-game series is my worst nightmare. He'd also be my favorite Penguin if we signed him this offseason.
- Cooke-Sutter-Kennedy had a great cycle going in the first period and TK did a nice job on the power-play goal. But he only played 7:18. It's hard to blame Jordan Staal for not wanting to spend the prime of his career with Tyler Kennedy as his top winger.
- Fleury was really sharp early and the team was doing a great job clearing rebounds. But killing 10 penalties is too much to ask of anyone. Same for Paul Martin.
- Crosby threw a big time elbow at someone in the third period very far away from the play. Obviously I don't care for the sake of the guy who got elbowed in the head, but I don't like the karma.
- Devils again Sunday night. Bring your earplugs.
The National Association of Whistleblowers held their annual meeting in Newark, New Jersey this afternoon but their small-group afternoon breakout session was interrupted by rival gangs of large men. Veteran whistleblowers Chris Lee and Gord Dwyer were leading a session titled, "Blowing Your Whistle: How to Do it Endlessly" on the floor of the Prudential Center when close to 40 men wearing red and white uniforms and armed with sticks, helmets, and rubber discs emerged from the tunnel and started chasing each other around. Though Lee and Dwyer were initially startled by the intrusion, they were able to quickly gain their composure and resume blowing their whistles only 44 seconds after the scary men started chasing each other.
Over the next two and a half hours, Lee and Dwyer combined to blow their whistles twenty times, delighting the raucous crowd of 17,625 whistleblowing fanatics. "I spend a lot of my hard earned money to come to these whistleblowing conventions," said Steve Turco, a lifelong member of the NAW who shelled out $465 to bring his wife and kids to the convention. "Today were some of the best whistles I've ever heard. I really feel like professional whistleblowing is about to take off in this country."
 |
| Chris Lee prepares for a Whistle Blowing scrimmage in 2011. |
- Refereeing is not to blame for the loss, but it did make the game thoroughly unenjoyable. This was not a game where the refs needed to call penalties to prevent the game from getting out of control. This was a game where the refs called way too many terrible penalties on both teams early, and then they let themselves get out of control. Once they started down this road of calling things that are not penalties, and have never been penalties, they couldn't reel themselves back in.
- Of couse, we all know that they will reel themselves back in during the playoffs. Of the 20 minor penalties in this game (8 on NJ, 12 on the Pens), maybe four get called in the playoffs. Maybe only four get called tomorrow. Who even knows. If Dan Bylsma had done what Mario did to Kerry Fraser, who would have blamed him?
- Having said all that, the two penalties that the Pens took to immediately negate power plays were really dumb -- Malkin's roughing penalty and Neal's slashing penalty. Although the shove that Malkin gave to Andy Greene's chin was very soft, as soon as we saw him do it, we all knew it was going to be a penalty based on the way the game was being called. Malkin should have known it, too.
- Brodeur was outstanding, and he's the real reason the Devils won. The Pens lose to the Devils in Jersey on a Saturday afternoon and Brodeur plays lights-out. We've seen this movie before.
- Another big time performance from Bob Bortuzzo (known more familiarly as Bobby B, or simply Bob). Last year the Flyers had 8 rookies who were completely inside the Pens' heads. It's refreshing to see some new blood on the Pens finally start mixing it up in a positive way. David Clarkson was totally off his game in the first period thanks to Bob.
- David Clarkson in a 7-game series is my worst nightmare. He'd also be my favorite Penguin if we signed him this offseason.
- Cooke-Sutter-Kennedy had a great cycle going in the first period and TK did a nice job on the power-play goal. But he only played 7:18. It's hard to blame Jordan Staal for not wanting to spend the prime of his career with Tyler Kennedy as his top winger.
- Fleury was really sharp early and the team was doing a great job clearing rebounds. But killing 10 penalties is too much to ask of anyone. Same for Paul Martin.
- Crosby threw a big time elbow at someone in the third period very far away from the play. Obviously I don't care for the sake of the guy who got elbowed in the head, but I don't like the karma.
- Devils again Sunday night. Bring your earplugs.
Monday, January 28, 2013
Early evaluation of the Jordan Staal for Mike Zigomanis Trade. Wait...Brandon Sutter isn't Mike Zigomanis?
By Finesse
As Artistry pointed out in our Pens-Sens recap, we are 10.4% of the way through the shortened season, which is the equivalent of being in the second period of the 9th game of an 82 game season. In other words, Fleury is peaking. Given the accelerated season and the fact that everything else has pretty much gone according to script so far this year, there's no better time than now to make ABSOLUTELY DEFINITIVE CONCLUSIONS about the blockbuster trade sending Jordan Staal to Carolina for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and the pick that became Derrick Pouliot.
And that ABSOLUTELY DEFINITIVE CONCLUSION is this: When Ray Shero made the decision to trade Jordan Staal, he probably didn't expect Mike Zigomanis in return.
The real truth after the jump...
The truth is that Sutter (0 goals, 1 assist) has, to this point, been a little too Zigomanissy for our liking. We're certainly willing to give him more than five games to get comfortable with a new team, particularly when the failure to find a second winger for Malkin has led to Tyler Kennedy (a good 3rd liner, not a good top-6 forward) bouncing up and down the lineup and preventing development of chemistry on a Sutter-Cooke-Kennedy line. It's too early to worry, we know.
The risk when you deal away a thoroughbred like Jordan Staal is that even though you get nice pieces in return, the whole will be less than the sum of the parts. Sutter himself will almost certainly never be the player that Jordan Staal was (or will become), but he has to make himself a much more forceful presence not only on the PK and in a shutdown role, but also in exploiting the inevitable match-up he gets against 3rd pairing defensemen. So far, we haven't seen much.
But the immediate return from the Staal trade has to be more than Brandon Sutter, even in a scenario where Sutter plays up to his potential (which we've written is very high). This trade has to bring more to the current roster than a 3rd line presence and two young defensemen who may or may not ever be good. And that's why Ray Shero absolutely has to move some of the organization's much-hyped defensive prospects, and soon.
The Pens are reaping the same PR benefits as the Yankees do in baseball by being the highest profile team in the league -- namely, that every one of their prospects seems to get a slight uptick in their perception solely based on the fact that people know their names. (Every trade the Pirates have made in the past 15 years to the Yankees or Red Sox has brought back a prospect we think is better than he is merely because we heard Karl Ravech say his name on Baseball Tonight that one time we accidentally watched Baseball Tonight). As just one example, consider Simon Despres, who is often perceived as something resembling a "can't-miss prospect" because he got great press on draft day and he plays for the Penguins so people know his name. Maybe he will one day be as good as advertised, but he had only 15 points in 44 games with the Baby Pens last year (and was a -5) and his current coaches and GM don't think he's ready to consistently see ice time over Ben Lovejoy. We know it's early in his development, but as with almost all young players, he's far from a sure thing. A defenseman in the NHL is worth at least two in the AHL.
Right now, there are two windows that are only open for a limited time -- the window for the Pens to win the Cup, and the window where young prospects can return value in a trade. Shero moved Staal for a very solid NHL player and two defensive prospects (Brian Dumoulin and Derrick Pouliout) whose windows of marketability are currently open. If the immediate payoff from trading Staal isn't enhanced beyond Sutter by moving Dumoulin, Pouliot, or any of the other young defensemen that the Staal trade helped make expendable, then we just traded a 50-point guy with a track-record for a 30-point guy who has never played a playoff game.
We currently have our GM hats on and are scouring the league for trade targets.
As Artistry pointed out in our Pens-Sens recap, we are 10.4% of the way through the shortened season, which is the equivalent of being in the second period of the 9th game of an 82 game season. In other words, Fleury is peaking. Given the accelerated season and the fact that everything else has pretty much gone according to script so far this year, there's no better time than now to make ABSOLUTELY DEFINITIVE CONCLUSIONS about the blockbuster trade sending Jordan Staal to Carolina for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin and the pick that became Derrick Pouliot.
And that ABSOLUTELY DEFINITIVE CONCLUSION is this: When Ray Shero made the decision to trade Jordan Staal, he probably didn't expect Mike Zigomanis in return.
The real truth after the jump...
The truth is that Sutter (0 goals, 1 assist) has, to this point, been a little too Zigomanissy for our liking. We're certainly willing to give him more than five games to get comfortable with a new team, particularly when the failure to find a second winger for Malkin has led to Tyler Kennedy (a good 3rd liner, not a good top-6 forward) bouncing up and down the lineup and preventing development of chemistry on a Sutter-Cooke-Kennedy line. It's too early to worry, we know.
The risk when you deal away a thoroughbred like Jordan Staal is that even though you get nice pieces in return, the whole will be less than the sum of the parts. Sutter himself will almost certainly never be the player that Jordan Staal was (or will become), but he has to make himself a much more forceful presence not only on the PK and in a shutdown role, but also in exploiting the inevitable match-up he gets against 3rd pairing defensemen. So far, we haven't seen much.
But the immediate return from the Staal trade has to be more than Brandon Sutter, even in a scenario where Sutter plays up to his potential (which we've written is very high). This trade has to bring more to the current roster than a 3rd line presence and two young defensemen who may or may not ever be good. And that's why Ray Shero absolutely has to move some of the organization's much-hyped defensive prospects, and soon.
The Pens are reaping the same PR benefits as the Yankees do in baseball by being the highest profile team in the league -- namely, that every one of their prospects seems to get a slight uptick in their perception solely based on the fact that people know their names. (Every trade the Pirates have made in the past 15 years to the Yankees or Red Sox has brought back a prospect we think is better than he is merely because we heard Karl Ravech say his name on Baseball Tonight that one time we accidentally watched Baseball Tonight). As just one example, consider Simon Despres, who is often perceived as something resembling a "can't-miss prospect" because he got great press on draft day and he plays for the Penguins so people know his name. Maybe he will one day be as good as advertised, but he had only 15 points in 44 games with the Baby Pens last year (and was a -5) and his current coaches and GM don't think he's ready to consistently see ice time over Ben Lovejoy. We know it's early in his development, but as with almost all young players, he's far from a sure thing. A defenseman in the NHL is worth at least two in the AHL.
Right now, there are two windows that are only open for a limited time -- the window for the Pens to win the Cup, and the window where young prospects can return value in a trade. Shero moved Staal for a very solid NHL player and two defensive prospects (Brian Dumoulin and Derrick Pouliout) whose windows of marketability are currently open. If the immediate payoff from trading Staal isn't enhanced beyond Sutter by moving Dumoulin, Pouliot, or any of the other young defensemen that the Staal trade helped make expendable, then we just traded a 50-point guy with a track-record for a 30-point guy who has never played a playoff game.
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| The ones that got away? |
Saturday, June 23, 2012
Plan B: What if the Pens whiff on Suter and Parise?
By Artistry
Reaction to Staal trade here
Reaction to Michalek trade here
The mood in Pittsburgh is shifting faster than Kris Letang on meth, from shock to sadness to euphoria and back again. Jordan Staal was here, then, in a blink, he was gone. Zybnek Michalek was sent home to Phoenix. The Pens are left with a ludicrous treasure chest of young defensemen, a more-than-suitable 3rd line center in Brandon Sutter, $15 million in cap room, and the promise of something huge.
The sense today is that the Pens will be major players in either the Ryan Suter or Zach Parise sweepstakes, and probably both. But Ray Shero isn't the best GM in the business because he fixates on a potentially unobtainable prize or because he fails to learn from his mistakes. Recall what happened when Marian Hossa left the Penguins grasping at air in 2008 and without a backup plan. When Shero saw big holes in his defense in the summer of 2010, he dealt for the rights to primary target Dan Hamhuis. When he couldn't lock up Hamhuis, the Pens were ready to pounce on secondary targets at 12:01 on July 1. He was determined not to get burned again. OK, he got burned again, but that was because Martin and Michalek underperformed, not because he hadn't thought several steps ahead.
Fast forward to 2012, and reports are swirling that Shero is working hard to obtain the rights to negotiate with Nashville's Ryan Suter, again to get a headstart on the frenzy that hits a week from tomorrow. Only one problem: David Poile is in no hurry to give up on Suter. And Suter and Parise, probably the two most sought after UFA's in history, have no shortage of attractive suitors willing to throw unrealistic amounts of cash at them. In short, there are no guarantees. What do the Penguins do if they don't land either player? One thing is certain: they will do something. Let's brainstorm, after the jump...
1. Trade for a #1 defenseman
It doesn't take much to read between the lines here. The word is out that Brooks Orpik may be dealt, and it's safe to conclude Shero agrees with us on this point: Orpik is no longer a top pairing defenseman, if he ever was one. Shero must find a defensive anchor to pair with the uber-talented, but all-hopped-up-on-Mountain-Dew Kris Letang. UFA targets? You won't find any that meet our criteria outside of Suter. The answer likely must come in a trade. If the Preds manage to retain Suter, can Shea Weber be had? What about somebody else with a hefty salary that could be had in a shakeup? Brent Seabrook ($5.8M cap hit)? Shero has already kicked the tires on Keith Yandle. Should he kick harder?
If the Pens have one of these targets in view, the question becomes what they'll offer in a trade. A few names come to mind: Chris Kunitz, Simon Despres, and Pascal Dupuis. We've long been on record as saying if you're going to trade Kunitz, the time is now. He'll have tremendous appeal for any contending team looking to add a guy who's good for 25 goals, can play on a top line, and competes his little honey badger ass off every night. His 3.75 M cap hit looks eminently reasonable with a projected $70M cap. Despres is a guy with top-pairing upside who's ready to play now. And chances are the Pens didn't draft Joe Morrow and Scott Harrington's two buddies in the first round on Friday so they could break up that quartet almost immediately. Simon is as good as gone in any major deal. Dupuis is no less than the best bargain in the league at wing. Find a better one. The Pens would be loathe to trade him for this reason, and because he and Matt Cooke are now essential to a penalty-killing unit that ...hang on, I'm being told the PK gave up 800 goals in the first round of the playoffs. Never mind.
2) Sign veteran depth on D. Big veteran depth.
Bryan Allen should be a target on July 1. That is, if you feel the Pens could use a 6'5, 225 pound defenseman. And, unless you read this site solely for the Bachelorette recaps, we suspect that's exactly the way you feel.
3) Bobby Ryan
The bidding for Ryan, a 25-year-old 30 goal scorer with two years left at a very reasonable $5.1M cap hit, is likely to approach Parise-level intensity. The difference being you'd need to give up big-time assets to get him. But, as discussed above, the Pens have some attractive pieces. Will it be enough? Maybe not. We have Paul Holmgren, who acts like a monkey throwing shit against a wall to see if it will stick every summer, as our chief competition for Ryan, with numerous others in the mix as well.
There are other possibilities, of course. And if there is one thing we can be sure of in this emotional summer of uncertainty, Ray Shero knows what they are.
Reaction to Staal trade here
Reaction to Michalek trade here
The mood in Pittsburgh is shifting faster than Kris Letang on meth, from shock to sadness to euphoria and back again. Jordan Staal was here, then, in a blink, he was gone. Zybnek Michalek was sent home to Phoenix. The Pens are left with a ludicrous treasure chest of young defensemen, a more-than-suitable 3rd line center in Brandon Sutter, $15 million in cap room, and the promise of something huge.
 |
| Something huge. |
 |
| No chance of him underperforming. |
1. Trade for a #1 defenseman
It doesn't take much to read between the lines here. The word is out that Brooks Orpik may be dealt, and it's safe to conclude Shero agrees with us on this point: Orpik is no longer a top pairing defenseman, if he ever was one. Shero must find a defensive anchor to pair with the uber-talented, but all-hopped-up-on-Mountain-Dew Kris Letang. UFA targets? You won't find any that meet our criteria outside of Suter. The answer likely must come in a trade. If the Preds manage to retain Suter, can Shea Weber be had? What about somebody else with a hefty salary that could be had in a shakeup? Brent Seabrook ($5.8M cap hit)? Shero has already kicked the tires on Keith Yandle. Should he kick harder?
If the Pens have one of these targets in view, the question becomes what they'll offer in a trade. A few names come to mind: Chris Kunitz, Simon Despres, and Pascal Dupuis. We've long been on record as saying if you're going to trade Kunitz, the time is now. He'll have tremendous appeal for any contending team looking to add a guy who's good for 25 goals, can play on a top line, and competes his little honey badger ass off every night. His 3.75 M cap hit looks eminently reasonable with a projected $70M cap. Despres is a guy with top-pairing upside who's ready to play now. And chances are the Pens didn't draft Joe Morrow and Scott Harrington's two buddies in the first round on Friday so they could break up that quartet almost immediately. Simon is as good as gone in any major deal. Dupuis is no less than the best bargain in the league at wing. Find a better one. The Pens would be loathe to trade him for this reason, and because he and Matt Cooke are now essential to a penalty-killing unit that ...hang on, I'm being told the PK gave up 800 goals in the first round of the playoffs. Never mind.
2) Sign veteran depth on D. Big veteran depth.
Bryan Allen should be a target on July 1. That is, if you feel the Pens could use a 6'5, 225 pound defenseman. And, unless you read this site solely for the Bachelorette recaps, we suspect that's exactly the way you feel.
3) Bobby Ryan
The bidding for Ryan, a 25-year-old 30 goal scorer with two years left at a very reasonable $5.1M cap hit, is likely to approach Parise-level intensity. The difference being you'd need to give up big-time assets to get him. But, as discussed above, the Pens have some attractive pieces. Will it be enough? Maybe not. We have Paul Holmgren, who acts like a monkey throwing shit against a wall to see if it will stick every summer, as our chief competition for Ryan, with numerous others in the mix as well.
There are other possibilities, of course. And if there is one thing we can be sure of in this emotional summer of uncertainty, Ray Shero knows what they are.
Friday, June 22, 2012
Pens trade Jordan Staal to Carolina for Brandon Sutter; GTOG Reacts
By Finesse
The Pens traded Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and the #8 pick (used to draft defenseman Derrick Pouliout). Sutter will be the Staal replacement on the third line. Dumoulin is a 20 year old defensive prospect, and Pouliout is reportedly a Letangesque prospect. The Pens opened up about $2 million in cap space by dropping Staal's salary ($4 million) for Sutter's ($2 million through 2013-14).
Rumors on TV are that the Pens are gearing up to make a big run at a big time free agent....maybe even Zach Parise. Dear God.
It's going to take a lot of reflection to really process this trade, but here are the initial thoughts...
I can't help but have really good memories of Jordan Staal. He scored some of the biggest goals in Pens playoff history, never complained about his role, always did exactly what was asked of him, and just generally was a huge beast. There were times when he was maddeningly unproductive, but if you look at any of the Pens' biggest wins in the past 6 years, Staal was prominently involved.
At the same time, the longer this saga dragged on, the more ridiculous the romancing of Jordan Staal became. He's not a "superstar" in this league -- he never has been, and it's impossible to say for certain that he will be. His career high in points? 50. He did that this year in only 62 games, but before you get all "that's a 66 point pace over 82 games!" on me, pause and think about 3 things:
1) That's a 66 point pace over 82 games. It's not even a point-per-game pace and it's not even that close. If 66 points is sounding familiar to you, that's because it's how many points Crosby had in 2010 before his concussion. In 41 games.
2) Staal played a lot of those 62 games as the Pens #2 center, the exact role he will be playing (maybe) in Carolina behind his brother Eric. He got power play time, he got to play with second-line quality wingers ... and he produced 50 points. That's not bad, but it's not great.
3) Jordan Staal is going to be 24 when the season starts and he's been in the league for 6 years. There are two ways to look at that -- one is that he's young, and maybe his best years are in front of him. The other is to say that you forfeit the "potential" label, or at least can't rely on it so much, after you've been in the league for 6 years and played around 20 minutes every night. There's an argument to be made that if you're actually point-per-game guy and you play 20 minutes a night, you'll produce at that pace, regardless of whether you're the first, second, or third line center. And the history of the NHL is full of guys who peak statistically in their early 20s.
None of this is meant to suggest that Staal isn't an extremely unique and valuable player, or that he doesn't have room to continue to grow. It's to reinforce the point that we just don't know. So when Staal turned down a extremely generous 10-year, $60 million dollar contract (reportedly), it became a hostage situation and the Pens weren't holding the gun. Staal had to go. Once you start paying over $6 million to a guy who averaged 0.8 points per game in his best offensive season, you've become Glen Sather.
So while the Pens are not going to have a better 3rd line center than Staal next season, a lot of teams win the Stanley Cup with 3rd line centers that aren't as good as Staal. Jordan Staal has a unique game, but in terms of the value he brings to the Penguins -- scoring from the third-line, great penalty killing, general toughness -- those are eminently replaceable traits. We can get that from someone else. Hopefully, it's Brandon Sutter.
As for the rest of the return, we're not going to pretend like we know. It all depends on how Dumoulin and Pouliot turn out. "Experts" are going to talk about their potential, but the truth is that we just won't know for at least a couple years. And that's the really scary part of this trade. Until we know what those guys become, the truth is that we just gave up Jordan Staal for a third line center and some cap space.
Again, I completely understand Staal's desire to not spend the prime of his career behind to sure-fire first ballot hall-of-famers. But it's a little curious that he's so intent on going to Carolina to play not with his brother, but behind his brother. I always figured that if Staal was intent on leaving Pittsburgh, it was because he wanted to embrace the challenge of trying to be THE guy. By going to Carolina, he's stepping out of two shadows, but into a bigger one. And he's also going to have to worry about another center, Jeff Skinner, who scored more points in his rookie season (63) than Staal has ever scored in a single season. With the opportunity to play with Eric and his family moving to NC, it's an understandable decision. But a curious one.
We'll have a lot more reaction as we continue to process this trade and whatever other moves the Pens make. We will look back fondly on Staal's time as part of the Pens' "core." But in the salary-cap NHL, you can't have The Situation's abs. You're not going to have an 8-pack, a 6-pack, or even a 4-pack. Sometimes, you have to be happy settling for just 2. And that's ok with us.
The Pens traded Jordan Staal to the Carolina Hurricanes for Brandon Sutter, Brian Dumoulin, and the #8 pick (used to draft defenseman Derrick Pouliout). Sutter will be the Staal replacement on the third line. Dumoulin is a 20 year old defensive prospect, and Pouliout is reportedly a Letangesque prospect. The Pens opened up about $2 million in cap space by dropping Staal's salary ($4 million) for Sutter's ($2 million through 2013-14).
Rumors on TV are that the Pens are gearing up to make a big run at a big time free agent....maybe even Zach Parise. Dear God.
It's going to take a lot of reflection to really process this trade, but here are the initial thoughts...
I can't help but have really good memories of Jordan Staal. He scored some of the biggest goals in Pens playoff history, never complained about his role, always did exactly what was asked of him, and just generally was a huge beast. There were times when he was maddeningly unproductive, but if you look at any of the Pens' biggest wins in the past 6 years, Staal was prominently involved.
At the same time, the longer this saga dragged on, the more ridiculous the romancing of Jordan Staal became. He's not a "superstar" in this league -- he never has been, and it's impossible to say for certain that he will be. His career high in points? 50. He did that this year in only 62 games, but before you get all "that's a 66 point pace over 82 games!" on me, pause and think about 3 things:
1) That's a 66 point pace over 82 games. It's not even a point-per-game pace and it's not even that close. If 66 points is sounding familiar to you, that's because it's how many points Crosby had in 2010 before his concussion. In 41 games.
2) Staal played a lot of those 62 games as the Pens #2 center, the exact role he will be playing (maybe) in Carolina behind his brother Eric. He got power play time, he got to play with second-line quality wingers ... and he produced 50 points. That's not bad, but it's not great.
3) Jordan Staal is going to be 24 when the season starts and he's been in the league for 6 years. There are two ways to look at that -- one is that he's young, and maybe his best years are in front of him. The other is to say that you forfeit the "potential" label, or at least can't rely on it so much, after you've been in the league for 6 years and played around 20 minutes every night. There's an argument to be made that if you're actually point-per-game guy and you play 20 minutes a night, you'll produce at that pace, regardless of whether you're the first, second, or third line center. And the history of the NHL is full of guys who peak statistically in their early 20s.
None of this is meant to suggest that Staal isn't an extremely unique and valuable player, or that he doesn't have room to continue to grow. It's to reinforce the point that we just don't know. So when Staal turned down a extremely generous 10-year, $60 million dollar contract (reportedly), it became a hostage situation and the Pens weren't holding the gun. Staal had to go. Once you start paying over $6 million to a guy who averaged 0.8 points per game in his best offensive season, you've become Glen Sather.
So while the Pens are not going to have a better 3rd line center than Staal next season, a lot of teams win the Stanley Cup with 3rd line centers that aren't as good as Staal. Jordan Staal has a unique game, but in terms of the value he brings to the Penguins -- scoring from the third-line, great penalty killing, general toughness -- those are eminently replaceable traits. We can get that from someone else. Hopefully, it's Brandon Sutter.
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| Sutter pedigree > Staal pedigree |
Again, I completely understand Staal's desire to not spend the prime of his career behind to sure-fire first ballot hall-of-famers. But it's a little curious that he's so intent on going to Carolina to play not with his brother, but behind his brother. I always figured that if Staal was intent on leaving Pittsburgh, it was because he wanted to embrace the challenge of trying to be THE guy. By going to Carolina, he's stepping out of two shadows, but into a bigger one. And he's also going to have to worry about another center, Jeff Skinner, who scored more points in his rookie season (63) than Staal has ever scored in a single season. With the opportunity to play with Eric and his family moving to NC, it's an understandable decision. But a curious one.
We'll have a lot more reaction as we continue to process this trade and whatever other moves the Pens make. We will look back fondly on Staal's time as part of the Pens' "core." But in the salary-cap NHL, you can't have The Situation's abs. You're not going to have an 8-pack, a 6-pack, or even a 4-pack. Sometimes, you have to be happy settling for just 2. And that's ok with us.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
GTOG Podcast: The Staal saga, and what other Pens could be on the move
On the eve of the NHL draft (which we forgot to talk about) and free agency, we discuss the news that Jordan Staal turned down a 10-year extension with the Pens. We talk about what he's worth, what the Pens should do, and who else could be on the move this summer. Artistry also may have made up something that Staal's agent said, but that's neither here nor there and point remains the same. It's the GTOG Podcast.
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Approaching NHL free agency on July 1: What we're talking about
By Artistry
It's June 21st, and our hockey-sense is tingling. For weeks, it laid dormant, but all it took was two puzzling Nickelback performances and some brutal Pierre Maguire/Eddie Olzyck repartee to wake GTOG out of its slumber. There is just no going back to sleep after that ordeal.
A draft weekend preview podcast is on the agenda for tonight, and after the jump a few of the items we're talking about over G-chat while we should be working...
1) Geno
Nothing like seeing the big guy lumber awkwardly through a Ted Lindsay Award speech, then nail the emotional Hart Trophy tribute to Sergei Gonchar. The surprise here was not that Malkin won the Hart going away, not that he cracked people up and charmed the room, but that he won the Lindsay Award that goes to the player most respected by his peers. Because you don't need to watch many Penguins games to realize Malkin gets under the opposition's skin. A lot of players think he's dirty, and at least one coach thinks he whines. He's not winning any popularity contests out there. But he was just too good for the other players to let any in-game hostilities get in the way of the popular vote. And off the ice, come on, what a personality.
Exhibit A as to why Twitter is often unbearable: Geno Malkin states that taking home the Hart, Lindsay, and Art Ross Trophies culminated the best day of his life. Next thing you know, Twitter explodes with people condemning other people who we don't follow on Twitter who are saying, in essence, "Geno, what about winning the Stanley Cup, huh, what about that? That's not the best day of your life? How could that not be the best day of your life? Are you even a human being? How can you even look at yourself in the mirror right now? You have disgraced your city, and really all of human civilization." And then people on Twitter take great umbrage with the Geno critics, and go on and on AND ON about how it's no big deal that Geno made this statement, there is a language barrier, and it's all really very innocuous, and no one should take offense. When did it become imperative for everyone to respond to everyone about everything? We don't know, and, please be assured, we don't care. UNSUBSCRIBE.
2) Jordan Staal
Lots more to come on the podcast, but the latest is that hockey scribe Andy Strickland reports Staal has told Ray Shero he will NOT re-sign with the team and will leave as an unrestricted free agent next summer. This may be true. This may be untrue. Also, this may be true, but things could change. Our feelings on it won't change: the Pens should make a run this season with Jordan Staal. Unless Shero is blown away by an offer - and we're talking an offer that gives us a suitable replacement at center, a significant upgrade at another position, AND a stellar prospect - you don't trade the guy who makes the Penguins the most difficult match-up in hockey. You make your run now, and then let the chips fall.
3) Paul Martin
Nice work by the Trib's Josh Yohe on Wednesday to get the scoop on Martin's concussion, his recognition that he was terrible this year, and his desire to stay in Pittsburgh. We feel bad for the Prime Minister. We loved what he brought when Shero signed him two summers ago, and we defended him at length on several occasions. But concussion or no concussion, we've seen a steady decline in his performance that does not warrant another chance at redemption. If you're a $5 million defenseman who can't get comfortable after two full years in Dan Bylsma's system, you're not a $5 million defenseman. We wish him the best, but we'll take a draft pick and cap space for him and move on. Time for a reboot.
Podcast tonight. See you there.
It's June 21st, and our hockey-sense is tingling. For weeks, it laid dormant, but all it took was two puzzling Nickelback performances and some brutal Pierre Maguire/Eddie Olzyck repartee to wake GTOG out of its slumber. There is just no going back to sleep after that ordeal.
 |
| So cheppy. |
1) Geno
Nothing like seeing the big guy lumber awkwardly through a Ted Lindsay Award speech, then nail the emotional Hart Trophy tribute to Sergei Gonchar. The surprise here was not that Malkin won the Hart going away, not that he cracked people up and charmed the room, but that he won the Lindsay Award that goes to the player most respected by his peers. Because you don't need to watch many Penguins games to realize Malkin gets under the opposition's skin. A lot of players think he's dirty, and at least one coach thinks he whines. He's not winning any popularity contests out there. But he was just too good for the other players to let any in-game hostilities get in the way of the popular vote. And off the ice, come on, what a personality.
Exhibit A as to why Twitter is often unbearable: Geno Malkin states that taking home the Hart, Lindsay, and Art Ross Trophies culminated the best day of his life. Next thing you know, Twitter explodes with people condemning other people who we don't follow on Twitter who are saying, in essence, "Geno, what about winning the Stanley Cup, huh, what about that? That's not the best day of your life? How could that not be the best day of your life? Are you even a human being? How can you even look at yourself in the mirror right now? You have disgraced your city, and really all of human civilization." And then people on Twitter take great umbrage with the Geno critics, and go on and on AND ON about how it's no big deal that Geno made this statement, there is a language barrier, and it's all really very innocuous, and no one should take offense. When did it become imperative for everyone to respond to everyone about everything? We don't know, and, please be assured, we don't care. UNSUBSCRIBE.
2) Jordan Staal
Lots more to come on the podcast, but the latest is that hockey scribe Andy Strickland reports Staal has told Ray Shero he will NOT re-sign with the team and will leave as an unrestricted free agent next summer. This may be true. This may be untrue. Also, this may be true, but things could change. Our feelings on it won't change: the Pens should make a run this season with Jordan Staal. Unless Shero is blown away by an offer - and we're talking an offer that gives us a suitable replacement at center, a significant upgrade at another position, AND a stellar prospect - you don't trade the guy who makes the Penguins the most difficult match-up in hockey. You make your run now, and then let the chips fall.
3) Paul Martin
Nice work by the Trib's Josh Yohe on Wednesday to get the scoop on Martin's concussion, his recognition that he was terrible this year, and his desire to stay in Pittsburgh. We feel bad for the Prime Minister. We loved what he brought when Shero signed him two summers ago, and we defended him at length on several occasions. But concussion or no concussion, we've seen a steady decline in his performance that does not warrant another chance at redemption. If you're a $5 million defenseman who can't get comfortable after two full years in Dan Bylsma's system, you're not a $5 million defenseman. We wish him the best, but we'll take a draft pick and cap space for him and move on. Time for a reboot.
Podcast tonight. See you there.
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