Saturday, October 31, 2009

Week 25: Pageant of the Transmundane

I have to preface this week's celebration of the Transmundane with a note. I didn't intentionally look for something Halloween-related this week to laud, but nonetheless, it just sort of happened that way, which is a happy accident all things considered.

With that being said, this week's winning entry comes to us from the blog of Corey FOLO.

This time around, the winning entry incorporates a few elements which have proven to be factors that win Transmundanity Awards. It was a Japanese video where some young children are confronted by a zombie for a show, and there efforts to defeat it. We all know something like that would never fly on American television these days... people just don't like their kids to get scared anymore, which is a shame really. All this entry needed was Muppets in a movie mashup and it would have easily been the front runner for the Annual Transmundanity awards as well.

Since I've been using a lot of zombie Simpsons pictures as of late, I thought it might be a nice change of pace to focus on the other half of the equation... the Japanese part of the clip, and present this Japanese cover for The Simpsons Movie as the award image this week.



Congrats Corey... here is your badge.



The rules of this little contest: Every week I will be selecting one blog post that I have seen from the vast reaches of the blogging village to bestow with the Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award for being one of the freakiest(in a funny way) things I've seen or read during a 7 day period. It doesn't necessarily have to have been written during the week, I just had to have encountered it. That means that if you find something interesting and repost it like a movie or whatever, if I saw it at your blog first, you get the prize. Of course, creating your own content is also a very good way to win.

Now, if you see a post that you think is worthy of this illustrious prize, just drop me a line at campybeaver@gmail.com and we'll see if we can't get your suggestion up and award-ready while giving you some credit and a link to your own blog.

Friday, October 30, 2009

Coming to America

You may have noticed that blogging here has been light for the last couple of months. That is because the entire family is picking up an moving to the US for the whole of 2010. I'm spending a sabbatical year at Harvard (chief advantage: no one asks you why) and we are all going to arrive in Boston just in time for the whole Winter experience.

And an experience it will be. I can count on one hand the days I have seen snow, the two children who have seen snow can't remember it and the last one is still unconvinced. The one of us who has experienced snow through a thing called skiing (don't ask what that's all about) has never lived with anything more than a Melbourne winter.

Suffice it to say, moving the five of us is a non-trivial exercise. We have a place but no furniture, we have visas but no health insurance (yet and ouch!), we have made contact with a school but have not dealt with the pages of forms and we have bags but no clothes. On the clothes front our plan is "to buy stuff when we get there." That last one is contingent on the hypothesis that we can last one day in Boston without winter clothes. But I forecast a future bleg asking for advice about all of that.

The children's excitement is mixed. No one is happy about leaving friends behind but there they have identified things that they are definitely looking forward to. The top 3 are: Number Three -- that is where Hannah Montana lives. This is a true statement but it is also coupled with some notion that we are just going to bump into her. Rather than cause our youngest any further anxiety, we aren't ruling out that possibility at this stage.

Number Two -- no school uniforms. Apparently, the desire to rid themselves of the Australian (and I guess rest of the world) norm of a uniform is strong enough to be a major reason to move countries. I'll evaluate that whole debate when I get to see more of the other side.

Finally, reason Number One, and a topical one, is: Halloween. Australia doesn't have Halloween and this has always been a constant source of disappointment to my eldest daughter. That disappointment will continue this evening. But next year it will all be different.

"I guess you are looking forward to next year where we will be in a place where people understand Halloween."

"Yes. Although I don't really understand it."

"What do you mean?"

"You know I love the whole 'let's go dress up and go around the neighbourhood getting treats 'thing but I have no idea how this all happened."

"I guess that will be something else you'll find out next year."

"Can't wait."

Neither can I. For starters, I could use more material for the blog and maybe a forthcoming (and doomed to failure judging by most attempts at such things) book, Parentonomics in the USA.

Winds

9:30 PM update:  winds are now gusting to 45 mph at Whidbey Is Naval Air Station and 64 mph at Tatoosh Island. 43 mph at Port Townsend. 53 mph at Smith Island.



Attached is the latest wind forecast for 8 PM tonight...very strong winds over NW Washington. Pink indicated 40 knots of SUSTAINED WINDS. Gusts could be much higher. If you are on the southern side of the San Juans, northern Whidbey Is, or on the NE Olympic Peninsula coast, be prepared! Don't even think about going on the water.


As shown by the Seattle wind profiler...strong winds (sustained 25 knots +) are above us right now. The air now is in the sixties and the snowpack is rapidly melting.

Google Analytics API on App Engine Treemap Visualization

It's Friday, time for some fun!

Here is a captivating way to visualize your Google Analytics data in a Treemap visualization and you can visualize your own data with our live demo.
(note: IE currently not supported for visualization part)





The goal of this example was to teach people how to use the Google Analytics API on App Engine in Java. As well as demonstrating how to use both OAuth and AuthSub along with the App Engine's various services. The code looked great, but the output was a boring HTML table. So I used some open source tools to transform the table into a pretty tree map visualization!

All the code has been open sourced on Google Project hosting. I also wrote an article describing how this application works making it easy for developers to use this example as a starting point for new data visualizations and other Google Data projects.

For the data retrieval part, this example uses the App Engine Java SDK and the Google Analytics Data Export API Java Client Library to retrieve data from Google Analytics. The example code implements both unsigned AuthSub and registered OAuth authorization methods allowing developers to get up and running quickly in development environments and later switch to a secure authorization method in production environments. The application also uses the Model-View-Controller pattern, making it flexible and allowing developers to extend the code for new applications. (like adding support for other Google Data APIs)

For the visualization part, I used the open-sourced Protovis SVG Visualization Library to create the Treemap. This JavaScript library is maintained by the Stanford Visualization Group and excels at creating brand new visualizations from a data set (in this case a boring HTML table). To handle all of the interactions, including rollover, tooltips and slider controls, I used JQuery. Here is the JavaScript source to the visualization part of the sample.

Enjoy!



P.S. If you have created any cool new visualizations using the Google Analytics Data Export API, email us so we can highlight them as well.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Serious Wind


It will be quite windy tomorrow evening...particularly over NW Washington and along the coast. The latest model run show this clearly (see graphic). Strong southeasterlies after roughly 3-4 PM building into the evening from Everett to the San Juans. Sustained winds of 20-35 mph with gusts to 50-60 mph. Batten down the hatches!

And the rain will pick up in the evening as well as the cold front approaches.

The Halloween Related Story That Pissed Me Off

I was working on the computer last night when I overheard a local news story (not local to me, I think it was local to Seattle), which seems to be one of those interest stories that is spreading like wild fire.

Apparently this year is going to be the year of raunchy, overly sexualized costumes for preteens... and everyone needs to be afraid.

I can see why this is being covered, mainly because they usually show adults wearing versions of the same costumes so that people can be outraged and offended that kids might be wearing the same thing.

However, there was something that came up which really lit a fire under my ass to write this post... they brought up the idea that a pedophile was going to see a someone's kid in a provocative costume and suddenly just grab them.

In essence, what that particular news department is doing is taking a story which could be summed up in one short phrase: There is a shocking dearth of costumes appropriate for tweens (they are too old for kids costumes, and too young for teen/adult ones). That was enough... that is what the story is really about.

Throwing pedophiles in there is just sensationalism at its worst, something meant to make the story seem a lot more important than it really is. Because, I have yet to read any statistics regarding Halloween and pedophile activity, and I might even be willing to bet statistically it is probably safer than nearly every other day of the year (because you know the police are going to be looking for that and trick or treating is something which is highly scrutinized activity). I guess including it makes good copy though.

And the reason why that little addition made me angry was it was telling parents that going out for Halloween is inherently unsafe (just like those urban legends about razor blades in apples and such did for an earlier generation). So what that station, and likely other stations are doing is they are robbing a generation of kids of the joy of Halloween, and that is just irresponsible. Halloween is about scaring people, but this kind of reporting is not what anyone had in mind.

They should feel ashamed of themselves for giving overprotective parents more things to be worried about over a piece of clothing they are going to wear one day of the year.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Warm, wet and breezy


I am finally ready to talk about the upcoming wet weather--I had to wait until the solutions settled down. This week there were major shifts and changes in the forecasts, not only of the winds but for precipitation as well. The reason for the lack of predictability have been ETs--extratropical transitions. This is when tropical systems move northward into the midlatitude westerlies. As the tropical systems move poleward they transition into midlatitude or extratropical systems and this transition is very sensitive and can induce weather disturbances far afield. Sort of like a freeway entrance....hard to judge exactly what car you will be behind as you accelerate into the traffic.

Well, if you haven't been able to go to Hawaii, Hawaii is coming to you!

A warm front is now approaching our area, bringing clouds and light precipitation (see image above). Most of the rain will be done with by 10 AM and there should be breaks tomorrow afternoon. The 24-h precipitation ending 5 PM shows modest rain over the lowlands, with heavier amounts (1.5-2 inches) southwest of the Olympics and Mt Rainer. Nothing major. But you will notice the change in air temperature tomorrow as much warmer (like 20F warmer) air moves in aloft (see temps at 850 mb--roughly 5ooo ft). Bad news for snow levels. Major melting of today's snow will occur.


But then the second act will occur...the arrival of the premo moist, warm air from north of Hawaii and the cold front. A long thin conduit of moisture from Hawaii to the NW will be apparent on Friday afternoon--and at that time it will be headed for BC (Figure). The infamous PINEAPPLE EXPRESS.

Later on Friday and early Saturday the plume of moisture will sag down over Washington ahead of the cold front. So later on Friday night it will be our turn. Amounts will be substantial over the N. Cascades, perhaps producing minor flooding for rivers there, but not a really serious situation because the front will move through quickly (see graphic showing 24-h rain ending 5 AM Saturday). The worst flooding situations occur when the plume stalls over us. Amazing rainshadow over Sequim and vicinity. By Saturday afternoon it will be through, with postfrontal showers. No major threat for the Green River valley.

Midweek Video: Henry Rollins' Liar

The reasons I posted this:

1. It is Halloween week and Henry Rollins does make a compelling devil.
2. I've been thinking about the fictive process all this week.
3. Someone was discussing honesty, drama and relationships on their blog.
4. Henry Rollins alone justifies it.



Tuesday, October 27, 2009

Express Checkout: 5 Things that I can't make a Pun with

- When I first read the story that comedian David Cross snorted cocaine in the presence of Barack Obama at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, that fact didn't shock me. What did shock me was the revelation that Cross is dating former Joan of Arcadia star, Amber Tamblyn (and that was the reason he got to go). And I don't know about you, but somehow, Larry the Cable Guy gained a lot of points in all this, because while he may play a redneck jackass for his fans, I think even he would have had the class not to snort coke in front of a sitting president.

- Over the weekend, my mother showed me a talking doll that she is going to give to my niece for Christmas, and part of the doll's programming is that she can read from a book of nursery rhymes... and when this was demonstrated to me, I was sort of appalled by something. It was almost a caricature of the Canadian accent... it was unbelievably broad. Granted, I haven't traveled across this great land, so maybe everybody but me and the rest of the people in my neck of the woods actually talks like that... but I've never heard that accent on television or on other media except when someone was mocking the accent (I swear, it is almost a McKenzie Brothers accent minus the ehs.). I know part of the issue with me has to do with how slowly the doll speaks so that a toddler can clearly understand the words, but it is still a surprisingly thick accent.

- I read over the weekend that Paul Haggis has left the Church of Scientology, and in doing so, it revealed just how in the dark the membership is about things that the organization is doing outside of the group. With filtering software on their computers and internal pressure not to question things, it seems that it takes a lot to push someone over the edge enough that individuals start looking for answers outside the group. I think Haggis's realization that he knows that the group is going to try to discredit him by using his own admissions during auditing against him was especially telling, and having that knowledge makes his public break from the Church that much braver. It is unfortunate that other members will likely not see things the way he has presented them however, rather, they will get a version which is twisted and missing its most critical parts. In short, he is going to be painted as some loony suppressive person who no one in the church should listen to, or that he is simply mistaken.

- Anyone taking bets on how long DMX, who isn't training BTW, is going to last in his first MMA bout? I am saying less than 60 seconds.

- I think I speak for a lot of people when I say that Spike Lee should be quiet for a while and just let his work as a director speak for him after he starting going after Tyler Perry. Look, I am not a fan of Perry's films, but I think when you are criticizing someone in your industry when you are in a position to, I don't know, make a movie which shows why what the other person is doing is deleterious, then that's what you should do. What I am really getting from this whole thing is that Spike Lee may be more upset that Tyler Perry's movies make more money than his own (and I think Oprah supporting Perry wholeheartedly probably irks him too).

Monday, October 26, 2009

Customize your results snippets with structured data

Custom Search themes make it easy for you to customize the look and feel of your search results pages. And if you want to take the customization gig further, you can also customize the result snippet—a small sample of content that gives search users an idea of what's in the webpage—by using structured data.

When you are reading a webpage that reviews a film, you can figure out what the title is, what reviewers thought of the film, and how they rated it. You can even search for stores with the best prices for the DVD. Structured data can convey the meaning of such key information to computers.

Structured data formats—such as microformats, RDFa, and PageMaps—are semantic markup that you add to your HTML page. Structured data make web content more meaningful to machines. These attributes do not change the formatting of your website, they just make the text enclosed within the XHTML tags "understandable" by computers and influence what shows up in the result snippets.

When you tag your webpages with structured data, Custom Search indexes them and sends the metadata back in the XML results for your page. You can then take this XML feed and transform it into HTML results that showcase key information—such as image thumbnails, summaries, dates, authorship, ratings, and prices. Having the most relevant information in your search results makes the webpages in your site more compelling to your users.

You can, for example, create the following kind of rich snippets:


You can even add thumbnails and actions that let your users download files or make purchases.


To learn more, read the Custom Search Developer's Guide.

Customize your search results page with themes

If you can select headgear for your LEGO ® action figures, your search engine should let you customize the theme for your search results page, right? Darn tooting!

True, Custom Search already lets you customize the look and feel of your search results page, but we're making it easier. You can now go to the control panel and select one of the predefined themes that broadly matches the look and feel of your website.

If the standard themes are not quite what you want, you can make further changes. You can tinker with the page layout (Why stick with a single column of results, when you can have two?) and play with the font colors and types. The standard themes paired with the "Compact" layout option are optimized for mobile devices, so they work well on iPhone, Android devices, and Pre.

If you want a greater level of control than that, you can download the CSS, tweak it in a text editor, and host the CSS in your website. You can make your search results page blend with the style of the rest of your website.


To learn more, read the Custom Search Developer's Guide.

Sunday, October 25, 2009

The Disappearing Windstorm


Yesterday, a few of you were noting the potential for a major windstorm later in the week, with the National Weather Service GFS (Global Forecasting System) model indicating an amazingly deep low pressure system right off our coast. The graphic (sea level pressure-solid lines) is shown above for you amusement (132 h forecast starting 5 AM Saturday). SCARY! Hurricane-force winds offshore! Gales in the Strait of Juan de Fuca! The TV stations would have field day if this was true.

But one thing forecasters learn quickly is to restrain themselves that far out and to look carefully at run to run continuity. Is this forecast stable? Did several model runs (forecasts) show the same feature. Did the forecasts of several modeling systems produce the same solution? For this storm, each run has been very different. Want to see?

Here is the next run starting 12-h later...much less scary--and farther north.



And the run starting 12-h later (this morning at 5 am, 108 hr forecast)... its nearly gone.


Or the run starting a few days (Thursday, 5 AM) before the scary one....the low is weaker and far inland.
The bottom line is that forecasters have little confidence in such erratic predictions that far out. Generally forecasts settle down when one is less than about 108 h out...but not always. The current situation is a particularly tricky one, since some of the energy of a tropical storm in the western Pacific is being injected into the midlatitudes...and that inevitably decreases the reliability of forecasts. The technical terms is extratropical transition...or ET.

Shock! Baby Einstein not educational

Bigger shock! Disney agrees and will refund any DVD purchases for the last five years! They had dropped claims these were "educational" but apparently that wasn't enough.

Well that doesn't help me too much. From 1998 to 2001, we must have purchased a ton of Baby Einstein DVDs and CDs, board books, toys (and maybe even videos). Our kids loved them and I loved the fact that the marketing was so cynically directed at the nervous (if I don't act the kids will suffer) yet optimistic (they could be Einstein) parent. The educational claims didn't motivate me. Indeed, similar claims seem to surround all kids toys and there is an entire campaign directed at selling books based on educational value.

Actually, there is a deeper point here: it seems to me that educational claims abound but only certain ones get scrutiny. For instance, the NYT's article on this news ends with:
“My impression is that parents really believe these videos are good for their children, or at the very least, not really bad for them,” Ms. Rideout said. “To me, the most important thing is reminding parents that getting down on the floor to play with children is the most educational thing they can do.”
Is it? Really? Getting on the floor and playing is the "most educational thing" a parent can do? This comes from the Kaiser Family Foundation. But where is the evidence for that bold claim? Looking at their site, there is a lot of statistics about children doing different things than they did in the past (including substituting TV for reading) but surely we cannot presume that various other things are "educational" any more than we can presume that DVDs might not be. A lack of evidence is always a lack of evidence.

Sunday Video: Money City Maniacs

I've been watching Life on Mars, the two halves of Grind House and old episodes of Barney Miller this weekend, and in the spirit of all that, I thought that it was only fitting to post a video that was from the 1970's.

And then looking at the first two items on the above list, I thought it would be better to post something that is definitely soaked in the vibe of the 1970's while retaining its feet chronologically in the modern age, and the first band that came to mind for me is Halifax's Sloan.



Though I now want to visit Future Shop for some strange reason.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Week 24: Pageant of the Transmundane

A man was arrested in Virginia this week after a woman who was trespassing on his property spotted him naked in his own home. I will say that another way. A woman had a dude arrested after she did a little peeping on him. How does that work again? If the roles were reversed, would this still be going down this way?

Anyway, the winning entry this week comes to us from the fertile and artistic shores of Blow at Life.

The entry in question made me question my sanity a little bit, but in a good way. It is a giant bear robot attacking a city in marker and trust me, it is as cool as it sounds. I want to see this happen just to hear the news people try to come to terms with it.

And since this week's Pageant of the Transmundane winner is related to creatures controlling robots from the inside, an image of Homer sitting inside his own homemade fighting robot seemed to be the most appropriate image.



Congratulations Lawrence. Here is your web badge.



The rules of this little contest: Every week I will be selecting one blog post that I have seen from the vast reaches of the blogosphere to bestow with the Homer Simpson Transmundanity Award for being one of the freakiest(in a funny way) things I've seen or read during a 7 day period. It doesn't necessarily have to have been written during the week, I just had to have encountered it. That means that if you find something interesting and repost it like a movie or whatever, if I saw it at your blog first, you get the prize. Of course, creating your own content is also a very good way to win.

Now, if you see a post that you think is worthy of this illustrious prize, just drop me a line at campybeaver@gmail.com and we'll see if we can't get your suggestion up and award-ready while giving you some credit and a link to your own blog.

Friday, October 23, 2009

Nice Convergence Zone


It is pouring outside my home now. Take a look at the radar and surface observations...a very nice convergence zone is apparent in both. But tomorrow should be dry--even with some sun. A frontal system moves in mid-day on Sunday...so have your outdoor fun (or work) tomorrow.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Atmospheric River Observatories and the Green River Valley


There is a great deal of interest and concern about flooding in the Green River valley. Before the construction of the Howard Hanson dam in 1962, that valley flooded regularly, which was of minor concern when it was predominantly agricultural. But the dam afforded protection for nearly all heavy rainfall events and allowed the development of the Valley, from Kent and Auburn to Renton. Today, thevalley contains billions of dollars of warehouses, factories, stores, housing, and public infrastructure. The problem, of course, is that the Howard Hanson dam was damaged in the heavy precipitation of last January and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers are worried about a catastrophic failure if the dam is filled. Currently, they only plan to fill the dam a maximum of 1/3 this winter. From my discussions with the Corps and others, it appears that they can prevent flooding for a 1-2 year return-time storm and perhaps a 5 year storm--anything more and flooding will probably result. Their public estimate has been a roughly 1 in 3 chance of flooding this year. This is also a very personal concern of mine...my son lives in an apartment only a few hundred feet from the river!

The National Weather Service and its parent organization--NOAA--have been revving up to provide enhanced prediction of atmospheric and hydrological conditions. The NWS will be placing 11 additional rain gauges in the Green River watershed. This is very useful--we need a better idea of how much rain has fallen, so we can run accurate hydrological simulations of river level and to evaluate and calibrate our atmospheric models.

But something else is going in and is the subject of considerable hype and misinformation--a NOAA ESRL (Earth System Research Lab) Atmospheric River Observatory (see the picture above to see what the instruments look like). This lab has already made the front page of the Seattle Times and has been described in various local newspapers. Emergency managers and others have asked for more of them, at considerable public cost. But as I will describe below, they really won't help much and are not worth the expense.

Most of our local flooding events are associated with narrow plumes of warm, moist air coming out of the subtropics--known as atmospheric rivers or pineapple expresses in the literature. A view of the moisture stream associated with the Dec 07 event is shown below. Our computer forecast models are getting very good at predicting these events and the forecasts of most of the major events of the past several years have been quite accurate--but not perfect.

In order to provide more information about the flow coming off the Pacific, NOAA ESRL has recently installed one of their Atmospheric River Observatory equipment suites at Westport along the Washington coast. This system can measure the weather elements at the surface, as well as the winds, precipitation, temperature, and humidity IMMEDIATELY above the unit. This week the unit went operational and you can get to the information at this web site: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/obs/

A sample of today's output showing the height of the freezing level (black dots) is shown below. Now it is certainly nice to have this data for verifying our computer models, but it really is not very useful for forecasting. We already have a very good idea of the freezing level from the Seattle profiler, aircraft ascents and descents into Seattle Tacoma Airport, and the local radiosonde (balloon-launched weather obs) that we have now. Besides when we have a flood-inducing atmospheric river event the air is inevitably so warm that we know that the whole Green River Watershed is in rain. In addition, the air is moving so fast during atmospheric river events that coastal air reaches the Cascades in about an hour or two. Finally, the data is only from a narrow pencil beam above Westport--which does not give us the comprehensive view we really need. Image a cat scan that only shows the details beneath a single point--few doctors would use it.

In contrast, the coastal radar we are getting in a few years due to the efforts of Senator Cantwell and others in our state delegation will provide a wide ranging view over the entire region...including well offshore...that will be of great forecasting utility.
There are some well-meaning individuals (like the emergency manager mentioned in the Seattle Times article) who want the NWS to secure one or two more AR observatories--at substantial public expense--to provide more "protection" and warning--and they propose to put them at or near the dam. But let me be honest--these will not help weather or hydrological prediction very much. They might be nice to have for research purposes, but won't assist the threatened folks of the Green River Valley.

Rather than spend large amounts of money on such equipment, it would be far better to expedite the coastal radar so its substantial capabilities are on line a year earlier. This year is an El Nino year which reduces the threat after the new year...next year could be a neutral year--when the worst flooding events tend to occur.

I wonder if this qualifies as a News Fail

From Yahoo! News a few days ago.



Wow. Robbie Williams really let himself go.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

A Little Bit Listy Today: Movie/Game List Comparisons

It seems like a lot of people in the blogging village are having some fun with the list that Rotten Tomatoes put together of the worst movies to be released in the 2000's, and I thought I would join in, though with my own special twist on the matter.

You see, marking movies off on one list might be fun, but making selections a more than one at once seemed like the way to go for me. So I went through 4, encompassing both movies and Playstation 2 gaming.

In a way, I am sort of embarrassed by the second movie list because there were so many I had to admit that I hadn't seen (I could have lied, but then where is the fun in that). At least I am giving people something to rag on me about.

But anyway on with the lists.

The Rotten Tomatoes List of the Worst Reviewed Movies of the past Decade. (Bold means I've seen it).

100 Whiteout (2009)
99 Glitter (2001)
98 Cheaper By the Dozen 2 (2005)
97 Boat Trip (2003)
96 All About Steve (2009)
95 Lost Souls (2000)
94 The New Guy (2002)
93 A Sound of Thunder (2005)
92 Babylon A.D. (2008)
91 Surviving Christmas (2004)
90 Dragonfly (2002)
89 Basic Instinct 2 (2006)
88 Kaena: The Prophecy (2004)
87 Testosterone (2003)
86 Pavilion of Women (2001)
85 Larry the Cable Guy: Health Inspector (2006)
84 Thr3e (2007)
83 Doogal (2006)
82 Supercross: The Movie (2005)
81 Extreme Ops (2002)
80 Big Momma’s House 2 (2006)
79 The Adventures of Pluto Nash (2002)
78 Deck the Halls (2006)
77 Date Movie (2006)
76 Johnson Family Vacation (2004)
75 Son of the Mask (2005)
74 Envy (2004)
73 Gigli (2003)
72 Broken Bridges (2006)
71 College (2008)
70 New Best Friend (2002)
69 The Cookout (2004)
68 Yu-Gi-Oh: The Movie (2004)
67 The Hottie & the Nottie (2008)
66 The Fog (2005)
65 Swept Away (2002)
64 Corky Romano (2001)
63 Yours, Mine, & Ours (2005)
62 Serving Sara (2002)
61 Good Luck Chuck (2007)
60 The Perfect Man (2005)
59 88 Minutes (2008)
58 Christmas with the Kranks (2004)
57 Godsend (2004)
56 Because I Said So (2007)
55 The Celestine Prophecy (2006)
54 Harry And Max (2005)
53 Modigliani (2005)
52 The Bridge of San Luis Rey (2005)
51 Fascination (2005)
50 Dirty Love (2005)
49 In the Name of the King: A Dungeon Siege Tale (2008)
48 BloodRayne (2006)
47 Soul Survivors (2001)
46 Material Girls (2006)
45 My Baby’s Daddy (2004)
44 Street Fighter: The Legend of Chun-Li (2009)
43 Darkness (2003)
42 House of the Dead (2003)
41 Zoom (2006)
40 Down to You (2000)
39 Miss March (2009)
38 Happily N’Ever After (2007)
37 Code Name: The Cleaner (2007)
36 The Whole Ten Yards (2004)
35 Deal (2008)
34 The Haunting of Molly Hartley (2008)
33 Delta Farce (2007)
32 Deuces Wild (2002)
31 The Covenant (2006)
30 Fear Dot Com (2002)
29 Bless the Child (2000)
28 Rollerball (2002)
27 Battlefield Earth (2000)
26 Kickin’ It Old Skool (2007)
25 Meet the Spartans (2008)
24 Texas Rangers (2001)
23 The In Crowd (2000)
22 Disaster Movie (2008)
21 Epic Movie (2007)
20 Crossover (2006)
19 Half Past Dead (2002)
18 The Master of Disguise (2002)
17 Twisted (2004)
16 Daddy Day Camp (2007)
15 Alone in the Dark (2005)
14 Beyond a Reasonable Doubt (2009)
13 Constellation (2007)
12 Killing Me Softly (2002)
11 Merci Docteur Rey! (2002)
10 Witless Protection (2008)
9 Redline (2007)
8 3 Strikes (2000)
7 Strange Wilderness (2008)
6 Superbabies: Baby Geniuses 2 (2004)
5 National Lampoon’s Gold Diggers (2004)
4 King’s Ransom (2005)
3 Pinocchio (2002)
2 One Missed Call (2008)
1 Ballistic: Ecks vs. Sever (2002)


The Top 100 movies as scored by the user base at the IMDB. (Bold Means I've seen it).

1. The Shawshank Redemption (1994)
2. The Godfather (1972)
3. The Godfather: Part II (1974)
4. Il buono, il brutto, il cattivo. (1966)
5. Pulp Fiction (1994)
6. Schindler's List (1993)
7. 12 Angry Men (1957)
8. One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975)
9. The Dark Knight (2008)
10. Star Wars: Episode V - The Empire Strikes Back (1980)
11. Casablanca (1942)
12. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2003)
13. Star Wars (1977)
14. Shichinin no samurai (1954)
15. Goodfellas (1990)
16. Rear Window (1954)
17. Cidade de Deus (2002)
18. Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981)
19.Fight Club (1999)
20. The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring (2001)
21. C'era una volta il West (1968)
22. The Usual Suspects (1995)
23. Psycho (1960)
24. The Silence of the Lambs (1991)
25. Sunset Blvd. (1950)
26. The Matrix (1999)
27. Memento (2000)
28. Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)
29. Se7en (1995)
30. North by Northwest (1959)
31. It's a Wonderful Life (1946)
32. The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers (2002)
33. Citizen Kane (1941)
34. Léon (1994)
35. Apocalypse Now (1979)
36. American Beauty (1999)
37. American History X (1998)
38. Taxi Driver (1976)
39. Forrest Gump (1994)
40. Vertigo (1958)
41. Lawrence of Arabia (1962)
42. Up (2009)
43. WALL·E (2008)
44. Paths of Glory (1957)
45. Inglourious Basterds (2009)
46. Le fabuleux destin d'Amélie Poulain (2001)
47. Double Indemnity (1944)
48.Alien (1979)
49. M (1931)
50. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)
51. To Kill a Mockingbird (1962)
52. Saving Private Ryan (1998)
53. A Clockwork Orange (1971)
54. The Shining (1980)
55. The Treasure of the Sierra Madre (1948)
56. The Departed (2006)
57. The Third Man (1949)
58. The Pianist (2002)
59. Das Leben der Anderen (2006)
60. Chinatown (1974)
61. Sen to Chihiro no kamikakushi (2001)
62. City Lights (1931)
63. Aliens (1986)
64. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (2004)
65. L.A. Confidential (1997)
66. Requiem for a Dream (2000)
67. Das Boot (1981)
68. Reservoir Dogs (1992)
69. The Bridge on the River Kwai (1957)
70. Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975)
71. El laberinto del fauno (2006)
72. Raging Bull (1980)
73. All About Eve (1950)
74. The Maltese Falcon (1941)
75. Singin' in the Rain (1952)
76. Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
77. Modern Times (1936)
78. Rashômon (1950)
79. Some Like It Hot (1959)
80. District 9 (2009)
81. The Prestige (2006)
82. Rebecca (1940)
83. Der Untergang (2004)
84. Gran Torino (2008)
85. Nuovo cinema Paradiso (1988)
86. The Apartment (1960)
87. Amadeus (1984)
88. 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
89. The Elephant Man (1980)
90. La vita è bella (1997)
91. The Great Dictator (1940)
92. Metropolis (1927)
93. Once Upon a Time in America (1984)
94. Back to the Future (1985)
95. Full Metal Jacket (1987)
96. Ladri di biciclette (1948)
97. Mr. Smith Goes to Washington (1939)
98. The Sting (1973)
99. The Great Escape (1963)
100. Braveheart (1995)

MetaCritic's 100 Top Rated PS2 Games (Bold for games I own, Bold/Italics for games which appeared on my list of the top 25 PS2 Games I have Played)

1 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3
2 Grand Theft Auto III
3 Resident Evil 4
4 Metal Gear Solid 2: Sons of Liberty
5 Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas
6 Grand Theft Auto: Vice City
7 Gran Turismo 3 A-Spec
8 Madden NFL 2003
9 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 4
10 Devil May Cry
11 Madden NFL 2002
12 Madden NFL 2004
13 Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence
14 NCAA Football 2004
15 God of War
16 Virtua Fighter 4
17 Burnout 3: Takedown
18 Pro Evolution Soccer
19 God of War II
20 SSX
21 SSX 3
22 Okami
23 World Soccer Winning Eleven 6 International
24 NFL 2K3
25 Virtua Fighter 4: Evolution
26 Pro Evolution Soccer 2
27 World Soccer Winning Eleven 7 International
28 Soul Calibur II
29 SSX Tricky
30 NHL 2002
31 Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time
32 Final Fantasy XII
33 Pro Evolution Soccer 3
34 Final Fantasy X
35 Guitar Hero II
36 Pro Evolution Soccer 5
37 ESPN NFL Football
38 Guitar Hero
39 Madden NFL 2001
40 Klonoa 2: Lunatea's Veil
41 Ratchet and Clank: Up Your Arsenal
42 Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater 2004 91
43 Twisted Metal: Black
44 Shadow of the Colossus
45 NCAA Football 2003
46 Dead or Alive 2: Hardcore
47 Madden NFL 2005 2004 91
48 World Soccer Winning Eleven 8 International
49 Pro Evolution Soccer 4
50 Ico
51 Tony Hawk's Underground
52 NBA Street Vol. 2
53 Ratchet & Clank: Going Commando
54 ESPN NFL 2K5
55 MVP Baseball 2004
56 Jak and Daxter: The Precursor Legacy
57 Burnout Revenge
58 NCAA Football 2002
59 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 4
60 TimeSplitters 2
61 Viewtiful Joe
62 Rayman 2: Revolution
63 ESPN NHL Hockey
64 Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
65 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2004
66 NBA Street V3 2005 89
67 NHL 2K3
68 NBA 2K3
69 Need For Speed: Hot Pursuit 2
70 Ace Combat 4: Shattered Skies
71 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell
72 Pro Evolution Soccer 6 2006 89
73 Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 FES
74 World Soccer Winning Eleven 9
75 Gran Turismo 4
76 Silent Hill 2
77 NBA 2K2
78 ESPN NBA Basketball
79 NBA Street
80 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005
81 Madden NFL 06
82 Winning Eleven 8 (JPN Import)
83 Medal of Honor Frontline
84 Tekken 5
85 Ratchet & Clank
86 Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2003
87 Red Faction
88 NCAA Football 2005
89 Sly 2: Band of Thieves
90 FIFA Soccer 2003
91 NASCAR Thunder 2004
92 Fight Night Round 2
93 SOCOM II: U.S. Navy SEALs
94 Baldur's Gate: Dark Alliance
95 NCAA Football 06
96 Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell Chaos Theory
97 Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening Special Edition
98 Jak II
99 Metal Gear Solid 2: Substance
100 World Series Baseball 2K3

IGN's recent list of the 25 Best PS2 Games of All Time (Bold indicates I own the title, Bold/Italic indicates that the title appeared on my own list of the 25 Best PS2 Games I have Ever Played).

25. Grim Grimoire
24. We Love Katamari
23. Jak III
22. Disgaea: Hour of Darkness
21. Guitar Hero II
20. Silent Hill 2
19. Okami
18. Virtua Fighter 4: Evolution
17. Final Fantasy XII
16. Resident Evil 4
15. Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 3 FES
14. Dragon Quest VIII: Journey of the Cursed King
13. ICO
12. Ratchet & Clank: Up Your Arsenal
11. Gran Turismo 4
10. Devil May Cry 3: Dante's Awakening Special Edition
9. Kingdom Hearts
8. Jak and Daxter: The Precursor Legacy
7. God of War
6. Burnout 3: Takedown
5. Final Fantasy X
4. Shadow of the Colossus
3. Metal Gear Solid 3: Subsistence
2. God of War II
1. Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Undermining Math Education in our State

As many of you know, improving math education is of particular interest to me--particularly since I see on a daily basis the poor math skills of many entering UW students. And I was stunned by the questionable materials provided to my own children. I am active in a group called wheresthemath.com, which includes thousands of parents and educators from throughout the state trying to do something about it.

Two years ago the State legislature got tired of the terrible math standards (or requirements) in our State and took authority away from Terry Bergeson, then Superintendent of Public Instruction. Ms. Bergeson was an advocate of discovery math (a.k.a. fuzzy or reform math), which is weak on fundamentals, but heavy on calculator use, group learning, and writing about math. Under her watch, discovery math came to dominate our K-12 schools, and student math skills declined.

Today somewhat improved math standards are in place (better, but far below what they should be) and the new Superintendent of Public Instruction Randy Dorn has instructed his staff to drop the math WASL and to develop new End of Course assessments. But the problem is that he did not replace Bergeson's old staff and they are committed to keeping the poor Discovery math in place. One of his senior math education staff testified FOR the poorly reviewed Discovering Algebra and Geometry series when considered by the Seattle Board of Education. With her encouragement, the Board voted to acquire these extraordinarily bad high school math books (rated "mathematically unsound" by mathematicians hired by the State Board of Education). But that is not the worst of it, OSPI staff are now editing the new state standards so that only portions they like will be tested.

Recently, Dorn's staff released the Test Development Guidelines that will guide the writing of new WA standardized tests. These are on the OSPI website in the What's New box at this link: http://www.k12.wa.us/assessment/WASL/Mathematics/default.aspx. In these guidelines, bold text is used to indicate what parts of each state math standard should be tested.

Even a cursory examination of these guidelines reveals that state standards are being compromised to further a Discovery math agenda. Fluency, competency, and standard algorithms are not deemed important enough for evaluation. To illustrate this problem, consider the following key grade 3 standard, with the bold text representing content to be assessed:

"3.1.C Fluently and accurately add and subtract whole numbers using the standard regrouping algorithms." (page12)

As you can see, neither fluency nor standard algorithms will be tested. The same undermining was applied to multiplication and division, with none of this standard bolded:
“4.1.A Quickly recall multiplication facts through 10 X 10 and the related division facts. “ (page26)

So none of our state students have to worry about knowing multiplication and division facts very well! So students won't have to know that 4x5=20, or 36/6=6!
According to discovery math supporters, that's for calculators to know, not kids.

And the same treatment is given to fractions and other key mathematical skills.

You can look through the rest yourself, but the bottom line is that the State math standards are being gutted by these folks. Fluency in basic operations will not be tested and they are trying to push the reform approach of heavy reliance on calculators and inefficient discovery-math algorithms (a good video on fuzzy math was made by fellow meteorologist M.J. McDermott, who is also a member of wheresthemath.com: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tr1qee-bTZI).

Randy Dorn campaigned with a promise to clean up the math mess in our state, so each child could get a world class math education. It is time he replaced the Bergeson dead-enders who are undermining his intentions and maintaining the failed policies of the past. Editing standards is clearly subverting the expressed written intent of the Washington State legislature and the needs of our state.

Introducing the Website Optimizer Experiment Management API

Today at the eMetrics conference in Washington DC we announced the new Website Optimizer Experiment Management API. The API allows for the creation and management of experiments outside of the Website Optimizer interface.

If you're not familiar with Google Website Optimizer, it's a free tool for running A/B and multivariate experiments on a website. Website Optimizer handles splitting a website's traffic, serving different variations, and crunching the numbers to find statistical significance.

Creating experiments with Website Optimizer usually involves a lot of back and forth between your website and the Website Optimizer interface. Using the API, you can integrate Website Optimizer into your platform. In short, you can create and launch experiments from whatever tool you use to edit your site.

You'll find more about the GWO API on its Google Code site: http://code.google.com/apis/analytics/docs/gwo/.

You can also join the Website Optimizer engineers for a webinar on the Website Optimizer Experiment Management API. The webinar will be held on October 28th at 10AM PDT. During the webinar, Website Optimizer engineers will walk you through how the API works. Additionally, two platforms that have already integrated using the API will demonstrate their integrations.

You need to register for the webinar, which you can do here. We'll record the webinar as well so you can reference it later.

We're very excited about the Website Optimizer API and what it means for website testing. Let us know your thoughts in the comments.

Cut Rate Cultural Analysis: The Waterboy

You know when you see a scene in a movie and you know that it is stupid, but it isn't until you've seen it multiple times that you realize just how dumb it is.

I had one of those moments when I just happened to catch the end of The Waterboy on the weekend. If you haven't seen it by now, and you plan on doing so, well, this may not be the entry for you.

You see, I used to think the final football scene in the movie was stupid because it involved Sandler, who plays an exceptional linebacker, somehow making a 40+ yard pass (since the Mud Dogs are in field goal range) to the quarterback who was streaking towards the end zone to win the game by 4 points.

I mean, I can buy someone who has been kicked around their whole life being able to sublimate all that stress and resentment into being an effective defensive threat, but I can't buy that same person being able to throw a ball with precision to someone who isn't trained to make a big catch on a play that the coach just drew up.

This bothered me for a while, but then I realized that the situation presented is even more stupid when you think about the context.

You see, The Waterboy is a movie about College Football and those of you who are familiar with that sport are also likely familiar with how overtime works. There are no ties in the modern game, even during Bowl games. In College Football, overtime is an almost egalitarian experiment, because both teams get to have possession of the ball and a chance to score.

The Mud Dogs had a more than competent kicker, and under the rules of NCAA football, they have a chance to take out the other team in a fair manner in overtime (after all, they have a linebacker who is a one man army... a defensive player so good that the opposing team wouldn't even run plays against him).

It wouldn't have been as dramatic, but man, if it was a real game, you know that's what would have happened. And this is coming from someone who, when playing Madden, almost always goes for it.

Monday, October 19, 2009

Ugly Betty and the Friday Night Graveyard

The ratings are in and the season premiere of Ugly Betty has been called "soft". I would like to take this opportunity to say, "Well, Duh!". This move is going to lead to the end of the show, just as many bloggers have predicted.

How do I know this? Because even I couldn't be bothered to watch the premiere on Friday, and I've written glowing things about the show many times over the years. I ended up sticking a tape in the VCR (yes, some of us still use those because we aren't blessed with DVR's and such) and I will eventually watch it. I don't know when, but it will likely be before the next episode.

And the thing is, I am always around on Fridays anyway, but somehow I can't muster any enthusiasm to watch it in its current time slot.

But when I think about it, more than a few shows that I used to enjoy suddenly became a lot less appealing as soon as they were given a Friday Night slot.

I mean, I loved Prison Break when it was on Mondays, but as soon as it moved to Fridays to end its run, it was almost like a chore to watch.

Hell, I've even been having trouble watching Friday Night Smackdown consistently as of late, and that is the good wrestling show at the moment. I would probably have a problem watching premiere episodes of Mythbusters if they were being shown on a Friday even.

I think the only show that I consistently watched on Friday Nights without complaint is South Park (in Canada, the new episodes of South Park air on Friday).

I know I can't be alone in this... this malaise has to be one of the main reasons why ratings on Friday and Saturday nights are generally so weak (aside from the socializing/dating aspects of the night too I mean). Maybe I will get over this whole Friday thing, but I have my doubts... and in a way, I am sad to see Ugly Betty end its television life like this.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Scrooge is an economist

and his name is Joel Waldfogel. Who is Scrooge? He is someone who hates Christmas and thinks that Christmas activities are a waste. Joel Waldfogel in his new book, Scroogenomics (will the onomics trend know no end?) tell us in a series of essays why you shouldn't buy presents for the holidays. Actually, he does better than that, he calculates it. It is around $12 billion per year made up of the money value of the total difference between what a gift is worth to someone versus just having the money. And that is not counting the whole hassle of the fruitless exercise of trying to make that value less by shopping and making the thoughts that count.

Scroogeonomics is an aptly titled 170 odd page presentation of the case against Christmas but more generally against gift giving. (Note to self: don't invite Joel to birthday parties). That said, it is completely compelling. You just can't read this book without thinking about how to get out of the whole gift giving mess. And the book doesn't even mention the classic Seinfeld episode about bringing stuff to dinner parties. So Joel is like George Castanza too.

But the book is not without hope. We can end the inefficiency yet preserve the 'social' value of gift giving. One way is to use gift cards or money rather than trying the 'thought' approach. Another is to give to charities in someone's name although that is still kind of complex as you can get that wrong too. One thing you should not do is do what I have said and encourage self-made gifts. That seems to only exacerbate the inefficiency.

And what of the book itself. It is published by Princeton University Press but if you excepting the usual academic sized affair that is not to be. Instead it is 'made for gifts.' A small little book that you might see as a last minute counter purchase at a Borders. In other words, Waldfogel is capitalising on the problem and potentially creating more inefficiency.

So let me help get out of this. Don't buy this book as a Christmas gift. Go out and buy it now and send it to one friend and ask them to read it and pass it on. That would be efficiency enhancing by the book's own metric. By the time we get to December, enough may have read it to have killed Christmas for good.

Saturday, October 17, 2009

Much of Parentonomics online and for free

I was lamenting the lack of Parentonomics availability on the Australian version of the Kindle. Don't get me started on that. But in doing so, I discovered that much (maybe 2/3s) of the original Australian edition (which is written in a slightly different language to the Worldwide one by MIT Press) is on Google books. You can read it here.

Amazing Rain Intensity


An hour ago, an amazingly intense line of thunderstorms passed through central Puget Sound. At my house there was nearly .4 inches over 15 minutes--and my gutters did not do very well with that volume of water. Take a look at the radar--you can see areas of red...those are intense rainfall areas...and one went over my house--and there wasn't any hail, which is usually associated with such high values. Just amazingly intense rain with big drops. An image from the new Rainwatch system (which will become public soon) is show below as well...many lowland locations have gotten 1.5-2 inches over the last day. Some areas received over two. Scattered urban flooding has occurred. No issue with the Green River--early in the season and its watershed did not get sufficiently large amounts of precipitation for any concerns.