Tuesday, November 8, 2011

Black canaries in the coal mine

It appears we are on the verge of Pat Moynihan part II: The Decline of White Marriage:
The Philadelphia-based Pew Research Centre study, published in The Atlantic magazine, suggests female graduates are being put in similar situation to that faced for some time by black women. In America, 70 per cent of black women have no husband and there are twice as many black women as black men with university degrees.
It will take time, of course, but there is no reason to expect that the white marriage rate will not eventually decline as black marriage rates have done, just as the white illegitimacy rate eventually rose in imitation of the black illegitimacy rate as Senator Moynihan predicted. History shows, and hypergamy explains, that civilized society requires men with higher wages and more advanced education than women. So it should come as no surprise to anyone with any knowledge of either history or Game that structurally modifying society to ensure higher wages and more education for women will tend to significantly destabilize society and solidify trends leading towards its eventual collapse.

Stories about how "most women eventually get married" are written by statistical illiterates with journalism degrees. It took 60 years for the percentage of black women who are presently married to decline from 63 percent to 30 percent, an average rate of 0.55% per year. 45 percent of black women have never been married by age 40, compared to 23 percent of white women. But since white women are roughly 25 years behind the trend set by black women, this indicates that about around half the college-age white women today will not marry by the time they are 40.

I'll have to do some more detailed research to provide harder numbers, but that's what the first casual glance at the numbers appears to suggest.

No comments:

Post a Comment